EastonSN+ Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 On 2/28/2023 at 12:20 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said: Thats some major cold Expand This looks great, we have good cold air AND an RNA to avoid suppression 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 Long range GFS is showing a classic setup. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 What a fantastic look for March. Tanking EPO Rising PNA Negative NAO Dropping AO MJO in 8 at a high amplitude DT is now on board for an active March along with other meteorologists. GEFS and EPS are also on board 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 What a great February, I mean March, outlook! We needed this pattern 30 days ago lol! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 On 2/28/2023 at 12:57 PM, bristolri_wx said: What a great February, I mean March, outlook! We needed this pattern 30 days ago lol! Expand It can certainly produce in March too…we take. Mother Nature doesn’t care what we want, or when we want it, as we saw all winter up til now. She’s coming for us…just later. That’s some serious cold and a serious set up. As we know and have been trying to tell folks for yrs…March is greater than December with regard to winter. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 On 2/28/2023 at 1:01 PM, WinterWolf said: It can certainly produce in March too…we take. Mother Nature doesn’t care what we want, or when we want it, as we saw all winter up til now. She’s coming for us…just later. That’s some serious cold and a serious set up. As we know and have been trying to tell folks for yrs…March is greater than December with regard to winter. Expand March is the new December and you can get huge storms in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 On 2/28/2023 at 12:31 PM, tiger_deF said: Long range GFS is showing a classic setup. Expand That's a rain event or shredder. It's also a Day 13+ op so it doesn't matter. March should be good for New England where climo is still favorable. Not much to get excited about elsewhere. Coldest anomalies are still west. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 On 2/28/2023 at 1:28 PM, SnoSki14 said: That's a rain event or shredder. It's also a Day 13+ op so it doesn't matter. March should be good for New England where climo is still favorable. Not much to get excited about elsewhere. Coldest anomalies are still west. Expand Who cares about climo when you have a favorable pattern coming on all the ensembles , EPO and MJO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 On 2/28/2023 at 1:32 PM, MJO812 said: Who cares about climo when you have a favorable pattern coming on all the ensembles , EPO and MJO. Expand Ya he’s still in the persistence/nothing has changed camp. He needs to move up here to SNE, and stop complaining in Jersey. This isn’t the same old same old….if we roll snake eyes again it would be incredibly bad juju to say the least. But nobody can control that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 On 2/28/2023 at 1:28 PM, SnoSki14 said: That's a rain event or shredder. It's also a Day 13+ op so it doesn't matter. March should be good for New England where climo is still favorable. Not much to get excited about elsewhere. Coldest anomalies are still west. Expand it's not worth looking at something that is 2 weeks out...by then it will have changed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 On 2/28/2023 at 1:36 PM, WinterWolf said: Ya he’s still in the persistence/nothing has changed camp. He needs to move up here to SNE, and stop complaining in Jersey. This isn’t the same old same old….if we roll snake eyes again it would be incredibly bad juju to say the least. But nobody can control that. Expand Holy Cannoli Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 Is phase 1 good in March in a la Nina? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 Actually found it. Odd look warm in Main cold in North Carolina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 People need to get the pattern inside 7 days before they let their imaginations go wild . 6-10 day CPC is cooler and dry 8-14 is cooler and average QPF we shall see how it shakes out there is solid potential in the medium term Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 On 2/28/2023 at 1:36 PM, WinterWolf said: Ya he’s still in the persistence/nothing has changed camp. He needs to move up here to SNE, and stop complaining in Jersey. This isn’t the same old same old….if we roll snake eyes again it would be incredibly bad juju to say the least. But nobody can control that. Expand I'm not complaining about it. It is what it is, you can't change the weather. I got some snow last night so it's better than nothing. But bad winters usually don't change that much in character and there's something to be said about persistence & repetition. But I hope it works out for someone. I'm on the cold/dry March train. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 Could see some thunder Thursday morning 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 On 2/28/2023 at 1:01 PM, WinterWolf said: It can certainly produce in March too…we take. Mother Nature doesn’t care what we want, or when we want it, as we saw all winter up til now. She’s coming for us…just later. That’s some serious cold and a serious set up. As we know and have been trying to tell folks for yrs…March is greater than December with regard to winter. Expand I know I know, and I’m grateful we will get some winter weather in March. It was born during a March snowstorm according to my parents. Just wishing it showed up earlier if for anything to show being an optimist for late Jan and parts of Feb wasn’t a total miss! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 No no no... The NAO has to be relaxing people. If you somehow metaphysically succeed in conjuring a -NAO elaphant over the western limb of the domain ... good luck sitting down, for as this recent soring of the butt demonstrates forcibly - what? you're forgetting ...like, while the butt is being sored? LOL. Okay - good luck. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 Yeah, my old standard method has medium coherent signal for mid month for something bigger. Really the 11-15th ...too early to hone within that range, which may even blur an entry around the 9th+ The 06z GFS ...maaaaybe began suspicious hint with that deep vortex opening up S of NS out in that time range. Looking over the GEF individual members, about 1/2 have become more specifically intriguing (just the coarse membership provided at PSU -) as a cursory eval. But that is a nice hemispheric look, because the NAO is relaxing. As others have noted, there is a PNA rise going on. I'd like to see it actually go higher than the 0 SD axis/ Buffalo massacre variant. Race is on against the sun, in a La Nina hang over, in a CC that seems to express less with warm temperatures ...and more with accelerating away from cold behavior whenever it can ( weird)... but as is smeared in the guidance at this sort of range, there's enough cold in proximal to this mess. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 28, 2023 Author Share Posted February 28, 2023 On 2/28/2023 at 1:28 PM, SnoSki14 said: That's a rain event or shredder. It's also a Day 13+ op so it doesn't matter. March should be good for New England where climo is still favorable. Not much to get excited about elsewhere. Coldest anomalies are still west. Expand You want the coldest anomalies west...who wants Jan 2004..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 On 2/28/2023 at 4:55 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: You want the coldest anomalies west...who wants Jan 2004..... Expand In Jan no but in March yes. Alternatively some of the ops also suggest an omega high like pattern with a bulging ridge in the southern plains and cold coasts. You could get some clippers or SWFEs as the lows go around the ridge. Repeats of yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 Man... if you're a spring/warm enthusiast, book a flight - that is if you can afford it. I'd plan an open ended vacation anywhere but N. of this approximate line, 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 not sure if you can even draw it up better at this range. this is ridiculous 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 On 2/28/2023 at 7:43 PM, brooklynwx99 said: not sure if you can even draw it up better at this range. this is ridiculous Expand The 12Z EPS is by a good margin the coldest run yet for much of the E US! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 That pattern is very reminiscent of the March 2-3, 1960 pattern in the Kocin book. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tunafish Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 I think Brooklyn alluded to this yesterday - is that confluence/retrograding block combination too much of a good thing for C/NNE? Favors NYC area & SNE moreso, correct? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 On 2/28/2023 at 7:57 PM, tunafish said: I think Brooklyn alluded to this yesterday - is that confluence/retrograding block combination too much of a good thing for C/NNE? Favors NYC area & SNE moreso, correct? Expand generally, yes, but this depends on where the 50/50 sets up. NNE/CNE is by no means out of the game 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 On 2/28/2023 at 7:52 PM, ORH_wxman said: That pattern is very reminiscent of the March 2-3, 1960 pattern in the Kocin book. Expand I guess we’d take a repeat: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 On 2/28/2023 at 8:01 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I guess we’d take a repeat: Expand Some of us get to enjoy it twice should we get that repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 On 2/28/2023 at 8:01 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I guess we’d take a repeat: Expand Lol yeah. I’m not expecting a repeat, but it’s a loaded pattern for sure. Let’s get it out of fantasy range though. I have no doubt the blocking happens, but that trough ejection is key to actually cashing in on it. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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