March 2023 General Discussion

[Baum]

2 hours ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Hoping this weekend is our last real "cold" push of the season. 

you still have the annual cold snaps for Opening day, The easter snow flurry event, and 45 degree with 35 mph wind mothers day still to get through. It's a long trek home.

[rainsucks]

I think it's important to note that the models have been exhibiting a rather severe cold bias this year. Personally, I'd take any long-range solution that shows noteworthy/long-lasting cold with a grain of a salt. I mean, look at how the GEFS has trended over the past several runs. 

[Lightning]

5 hours ago, WestMichigan said:

GRR has 105.2" for the year so far.  Next up is 2007-2008 at 107" followed by 2013-2014 at 116" and finally 1951-1952 at 132".

Kind of funny, as this year could challenge 13-14.  That year was basically opposite with temperatures.  

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, rainsucks said:

I think it's important to note that the models have been exhibiting a rather severe cold bias this year. Personally, I'd take any long-range solution that shows noteworthy/long-lasting cold with a grain of a salt. I mean, look at how the GEFS has trended over the past several runs. 

Any long range solution PERIOD should be taken with a grain of salt. This weekends cold shot was fairly well modeled in the longrange. Others won't be.

[Harry]

1 hour ago, Lightning said:

Kind of funny, as this year could challenge 13-14.  That year was basically opposite with temperatures.  

 

Plus 13-14 was more widespread with the snow. Gonna be hard to top that winter here at least with a bit over 117" for the winter here thus the record. Winter for the ages for most of the region. 

[rainsucks]

2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Any long range solution PERIOD should be taken with a grain of salt. This weekends cold shot was fairly well modeled in the longrange. Others won't be.

If some of the past GFS runs had verified, this would’ve ended up being one of the coldest Marches on record.

[Brian D]

1-2" of snow near the lake with 3-6" away around here. N WI had 3-6" near the lake with 6-10" away. Forecast flop. Biggest of the season for NWS Duluth. Generally they are pretty decent, but they got caught on this one. Oh, well, live n learn. This happened more when I was younger. Models not as good as today, and they aren't the greatest even now at times, but much better than the past tho. A little experience, and instinct are helpful. Even I thought they were going too liberal, but it really flopped worse than I thought it might.

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, Harry said:

 

Plus 13-14 was more widespread with the snow. Gonna be hard to top that winter here at least with a bit over 117" for the winter here thus the record. Winter for the ages for most of the region. 

2013-14 It was flat out the most severe winter on record for Detroit. when you combine snowfall, snow depth, days with snow on the ground, and cold, not to mention wind and constant blowing snow, no other winter has come close. Nothing in the vaunted 1970s held a candle. I suppose in a lake effect belt it's easier top snow records in less than desirable winters. But even grand rapids residents would probably agree that two winters don't compare.

[michsnowfreak]

35 minutes ago, rainsucks said:

If some of the past GFS runs had verified, this would’ve ended up being one of the coldest Marches on record.

So far locally this March has ended up warmer and a lot snowier than I anticipated. I did think we would get a good snowstorm, but I didn't think we'd get a parade of snowfalls.  But I also thought it would be colder.

[Harry]

Zone has 3-6 while p&c has 4-5.... Crazy to think that if the higher totals verify we will eclipse the 80 mark. 

[RogueWaves]

9 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Today is the first time in two weeks the ground is totally bare. Though plowed piles in parking lots remain. That is a decent stretch for march considering it did not begin with a left over snow pack

The warm RN and 50's took half a month, but finally came along. Nuked "most" of the non-plow piles around here, but surprisingly, north facing slopes (M-14) and shaded places like wooded areas have a 2-3" cover hanging tough. That was some real-deal cement we got 3 headlines ago. Would take a storm like that any chance I could (sans the power outage ofc). 

[Torchageddon]

Just caught the heaviest snowfall rate of the winter here, big fatties for minutes then nil from some LES chunks. Yeah it was more impressive than any rate during the fake blizz near Christmas IMBY. I get the feeling my heaviest rates all seem to be clustered at the end of Feb or in Mar for some reason. Not talking totals just rate of snow. Its -3C/27F.

[OrdIowPitMsp]

Light dusting of snow overnight to slick things up. The glacier lives with 5-10” of snowpack in place. Overnight low of 7. Might be our final single digit temp of the season. 

[IWXwx]

Woke up to a surprise inch of snow this morning. It was a surprise to everyone, including me, NWS, INDOT, and the driving public as there have been many accidents along the local interstate.

[cyclone77]

Have some mood dust whipping around in the bitter winds this morning.  Truly awful out there for almost late March.

[OrdIowPitMsp]

The Chanhassen NWS site is up to 91.8” with a 12” depth. Very impressive. 

[madwx]

These aren’t snow squalls in the traditional sense. More of an omnipresent haze in the sky from all the flurries

[weatherbo]

Heavy lake effect snow, 14 degrees.  Have easily picked up a foot of snow since Friday midnight-ish when rain changed over, then a lull from mid-afternoon yesterday to just before 11 last night and it's been snowing since.

As of 7am MQT was at 8.2" and have to be nearing a foot by now.

Some other notable totals:

Ontonagon 15.4"

Painsdale 15.5"

Twin Lakes 17.2"

Ironwoood 21.3"

Looks like my garden shed has lost its structural integrity under the weight of the snow.

 

[Brian D]

21 hours ago, Brian D said:

1-2" of snow near the lake with 3-6" away around here. N WI had 3-6" near the lake with 6-10" away. Forecast flop. Biggest of the season for NWS Duluth. Generally they are pretty decent, but they got caught on this one. Oh, well, live n learn. This happened more when I was younger. Models not as good as today, and they aren't the greatest even now at times, but much better than the past tho. A little experience, and instinct are helpful. Even I thought they were going too liberal, but it really flopped worse than I thought it might.

Oh, I should have added, in my last obs report to them I teased them a little by saying "Tough cast. Snow porn to almost celibate LOL". I also complimented them on doing a decent job this season, too. I'm sure as a forecaster, when you get one that wrong, it's a big letdown, and the public trust is affected. NWS Duluth is a tougher zone to forecast for, anyway, because of Lake Superior + terrain, and the interplay with weather systems on the basin. Living in the area all my life, the lake has, and always will be a wild card that models will struggle with at times.

[Brian D]

Looks like next week, lots of nickel n diming with snow. Looking forward to record snow season for Duluth, and maybe TH 7NW. Then Spring can come full bore. I'm ready  

On secondary note, this year, I've been giving obs reports during events to help NWS Duluth know what's going on here TH. We are such a rural area, that there isn't much to go on. My reports on one storm helped them to change a WWA to WSW for my area, because the storm edged a little farther north than anticipated. And yesterday, we had bands of snow showers that got pretty intense at times, so visibility in my email reports (in city blocks) helped them to understand the situation on the ground around here, even flake size is helpful. Or when the radar shows what looks to be light/mod precip, and it's just virga, which happens a lot here because of the dry air over the lake. Just basic obs go a long way.

[Brian D]

1 hour ago, weatherbo said:

Heavy lake effect snow, 14 degrees.  Have easily picked up a foot of snow since Friday midnight-ish when rain changed over, then a lull from mid-afternoon yesterday to just before 11 last night and it's been snowing since.

As of 7am MQT was at 8.2" and have to be nearing a foot by now.

Some other notable totals:

Ontonagon 15.4"

Painsdale 15.5"

Twin Lakes 17.2"

Ironwoood 21.3"

Looks like my garden shed has lost its structural integrity under the weight of the snow.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

This just came to mind. When you leave that much snow on the roof, and you get rain on top of that, and it refreezes, the weight must increase a bit. Might consider easing the load during the season, at least on some of your out buildings. Your house might fair much better, tho, as it's built a little stronger. Speaking of which, the Miller Hill Mall in Duluth had a roof collapse a few days back. With all the snow, and rain mixed in this year, got a little heavy.

[weatherbo]

29 minutes ago, Brian D said:

This just came to mind. When you leave that much snow on the roof, and you get rain on top of that, and it refreezes, the weight must increase a bit. Might consider easing the load during the season, at least on some of your out buildings. Your house might fair much better, tho, as it's built a little stronger. Speaking of which, the Miller Hill Mall in Duluth had a roof collapse a few days back. With all the snow, and rain mixed in this year, got a little heavy.

All the other buildings and sheds I have are built to withstand the snow load. This particular little shed was originally a chicken coop that sat behind an old cabin from 1916 that I had demolished last July. I thought it could take the load, as I’ve never cleared the roof in all the years I’ve lived here and depths routinely reach 4’.  I did however put a metal roof on it 3 summers ago and fixed a few minor issues. 
 

 

[IWXwx]

1 hour ago, Brian D said:

Looks like next week, lots of nickel n diming with snow. Looking forward to record snow season for Duluth, and maybe TH 7NW. Then Spring can come full bore. I'm ready  

On secondary note, this year, I've been giving obs reports during events to help NWS Duluth know what's going on here TH. We are such a rural area, that there isn't much to go on. My reports on one storm helped them to change a WWA to WSW for my area, because the storm edged a little farther north than anticipated. And yesterday, we had bands of snow showers that got pretty intense at times, so visibility in my email reports (in city blocks) helped them to understand the situation on the ground around here, even flake size is helpful. Or when the radar shows what looks to be light/mod precip, and it's just virga, which happens a lot here because of the dry air over the lake. Just basic obs go a long way.

I know for a fact that the NWS appreciates the real time reports.  My Skywarn team and I have been thanked many times over the years for the ground truth reports.

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, weatherbo said:

Heavy lake effect snow, 14 degrees.  Have easily picked up a foot of snow since Friday midnight-ish when rain changed over, then a lull from mid-afternoon yesterday to just before 11 last night and it's been snowing since.

As of 7am MQT was at 8.2" and have to be nearing a foot by now.

Some other notable totals:

Ontonagon 15.4"

Painsdale 15.5"

Twin Lakes 17.2"

Ironwoood 21.3"

Looks like my garden shed has lost its structural integrity under the weight of the snow.

 

Wow. Meanwhile Sault Ste Marie remains at a trace in March

[roardog]

12 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Wow. Meanwhile Sault Ste Marie remains at a trace in March

They must have had a huge forecast bust there. I wasn’t paying too much attention but they had a winter storm watch and winter storm warning from the storm a couple of days ago but apparently got very little snow. 

[michsnowfreak]

1 minute ago, roardog said:

They must have had a huge forecast bust there. I wasn’t paying too much attention but they had a winter storm watch and winter storm warning from the storm a couple of days ago but apparently got very little snow. 

Yup. Mostly rain in the Soo. So Detroit has 15.7" in March and the Soo a T. But they still have 20" depth lol 

[Lightning]

4 hours ago, weatherbo said:

Heavy lake effect snow, 14 degrees.  Have easily picked up a foot of snow since Friday midnight-ish when rain changed over, then a lull from mid-afternoon yesterday to just before 11 last night and it's been snowing since.

As of 7am MQT was at 8.2" and have to be nearing a foot by now.

Some other notable totals:

Ontonagon 15.4"

Painsdale 15.5"

Twin Lakes 17.2"

Ironwoood 21.3"

Looks like my garden shed has lost its structural integrity under the weight of the snow.

 

Fun times.  It makes me happy to see Superior snow!!! 

[Lightning]

Actually did rather well for March and lake effect.  We had a 30 minute squall go through just before lunch that put a 1.5-2".  Ground was completely white again.  March Sun came out for a bit and started doing its dirty work even though it is only 21F.  Now getting a bunch of intense snow showers  which a couple have put down a quick 1/4"-1/2".  It is cold out there.

[sbnwx85]

Lake effect is convective in nature. Full sun followed by heavy snow followed by sun. All within 15 minutes.

[beavis1729]

5 hours ago, weatherbo said:

Heavy lake effect snow, 14 degrees.  Have easily picked up a foot of snow since Friday midnight-ish when rain changed over, then a lull from mid-afternoon yesterday to just before 11 last night and it's been snowing since.

As of 7am MQT was at 8.2" and have to be nearing a foot by now.

Some other notable totals:

Ontonagon 15.4"

Painsdale 15.5"

Twin Lakes 17.2"

Ironwoood 21.3"

Looks like my garden shed has lost its structural integrity under the weight of the snow.

Nice…what are your normals for today, around 35/20?