March 2023 General Discussion

[hardypalmguy]

1 minute ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Mean March maxima for various cities in the Midwestern U.S. Using high temperatures here to minimize impacts of urban heat island effect. Any thoughts? Seems a lot more of an increase than I would have expected, considering the warming is said to be about 1C.

Cleveland, Ohio

1872-1900: 40.9F

2010-2022: 48.2F (+7.3F)

Milwaukee, Wisconsin

1874-1900: 37.1F

2010-2022: 44.1F (+7.0F)

Detroit, Michigan

1874-1900: 39.7F

2010-2022: 47.4F (+7.7F)

Chicago, Illinois

1873-1900: 40.9F

2010-2022: 47.6F (+6.7F)

Minneapolis, Minnesota

1873-1900: 36.7F

2010-2022: 43.3F (+6.6F)

Now do January, July & September.

[beavis1729]

23 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Mean March maxima for various cities in the Midwestern U.S. Using high temperatures here to minimize impacts of urban heat island effect. Any thoughts? Seems a lot more of an increase than I would have expected, considering the warming is said to be about 1C.

Cleveland, Ohio

1872-1900: 40.9F

2010-2022: 48.2F (+7.3F)

Milwaukee, Wisconsin

1874-1900: 37.1F

2010-2022: 44.1F (+7.0F)

Detroit, Michigan

1874-1900: 39.7F

2010-2022: 47.4F (+7.7F)

Chicago, Illinois

1873-1900: 40.9F

2010-2022: 47.6F (+6.7F)

Minneapolis, Minnesota

1873-1900: 36.7F

2010-2022: 43.3F (+6.6F)

Interesting...a few thoughts:

- I think UHI still exists for max temps, even as I agree it's a bit less of an impact vs. min temps.  A huge example is MSP - you'll often see temps (even during the day and especially during winter) that are several degrees warmer than surrounding areas.  But it probably can't explain the entire +6.6F increase.  Regardless of the debate on whether UHI introduces bias into climate change data, I strongly believe that UHI itself is a horrible thing.  It's sad that humans can impact temperatures in a city that much. 

- The Chicago data is probably not very useful, as the official ob site was downtown and right on the lake during the 1800s.  So, max temps were lower due to lake breezes, especially during the spring/March.  I believe the ob site moved to Midway Airport later in the 1900s, before going to ORD in 1980.  Midway and ORD experience some lake cooling in the spring, but not nearly as much as the immediate lakeshore.

- Is it possible to look at some other non-urban locations with long PORs - such as INL or other small cities in WI, MI, IN, IA?  Even Rockford IL and any metro suburban areas expereince significant UHI.  Of course, if UHI is a significant driver of warmth where people actually live, it's bad.  I'm just trying to parse out what is UHI driven warming vs. overall "background" Earth warming.

[TheClimateChanger]

26 minutes ago, hardypalmguy said:

Now do January, July & September.

Well, this was a March thread. But here's what I got for those months. Generally March shows the most warming, which I assume is due to changes in snow and ice cover. July & September an intermediate level of warming, and January the least warming (although northern sites show more warming than southern sites).

January

Cleveland, Ohio

1871-1900: 33.5F

2010-2023: 35.4F (+1.9F)

Milwaukee, Wisconsin

1874-1900: 27.1F 

2010-2023: 30.7F (+3.6F)

Detroit, Michigan

1874-1900: 31.1F

2010-2023: 32.9F (+1.8F)

Chicago, Illinois

1873-1900: 31.1F

2010-2023: 31.6F (+0.5F)

Minneapolis, Minnesota

1873-1900: 26.8F

2010-2023: 29.9F (+3.1F)

July

Cleveland, Ohio

1871-1900: 79.3F

2010-2023: 84.1F (+4.8F)

Milwaukee, Wisconsin

1874-1900: 77.7F

2010-2022: 82.3F (+4.6F)

Detroit, Michigan

1874-1900: 81.2F

2010-2022: 85.2F (+4.0F)

Chicago, Illinois

1873-1900: 79.3F

2010-2022: 84.5F (+5.2F)

Minneapolis, Minnesota

1873-1900: 82.8F

2010-2022: 84.9F (+2.1F)

September

Cleveland, Ohio

1871-1900: 72.2F

2010-2023: 76.1F (+3.9F)

Milwaukee, Wisconsin

1874-1900: 69.8F

2010-2022: 73.5F (+3.7F)

Detroit, Michigan

1874-1900: 72.0F

2010-2022: 75.5F (+3.5F)

Chicago, Illinois

1873-1900: 71.5F

2010-2022: 76.0 (+4.5F)

Minneapolis, Minnesota

1873-1900: 71.1F

2010-2022: 74.2F (+3.1F)

[Baum]

^ and oddly, Milwaukee and Madison are having their snowiest March's since the mid 1960's. I guess that increased warmth is translating to greater moisture and therefore greater snowfall totals... Shame it didn't work that way for MBY in January. I guess the biggest recipient of this effect was in Minneapolis and Duluth this year. Oh well, here's hoping it spreads.

[TheClimateChanger]

29 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

Interesting...a few thoughts:

- I think UHI still exists for max temps, even as I agree it's a bit less of an impact vs. min temps.  A huge example is MSP - you'll often see temps (even during the day and especially during winter) that are several degrees warmer than surrounding areas.  But it probably can't explain the entire +6.6F increase.  Regardless of the debate on whether UHI introduces bias into climate change data, I strongly believe that UHI itself is a horrible thing.  It's sad that humans can impact temperatures in a city that much. 

- The Chicago data is probably not very useful, as the official ob site was downtown and right on the lake during the 1800s.  So, max temps were lower due to lake breezes, especially during the spring/March.  I believe the ob site moved to Midway Airport later in the 1900s, before going to ORD in 1980.  Midway and ORD experience some lake cooling in the spring, but not nearly as much as the immediate lakeshore.

- Is it possible to look at some other non-urban locations with long PORs - such as INL or other small cities in WI, MI, IN, IA?  Even Rockford IL and any metro suburban areas expereince significant UHI.  Of course, if UHI is a significant driver of warmth where people actually live, it's bad.  I'm just trying to parse out what is UHI driven warming vs. overall "background" Earth warming.

Rockford only has sporadic 19th century data. I can offer Toledo, Ohio, as a somewhat smaller city. The airport is in a mostly rural part of Lucas County, southwest of the city. It does show the same general pattern with a bit less warming, with no change in January, nearly 6 degrees of warming in March, and between 3 and 4 degrees of warming in July & September.

January

1874-1900: 33.4F

2010-2023: 33.4F (no change)

March

1873-1900: 42.5F

2010-2022: 48.3F (+5.8F)

July

1873-1900: 82.1F

2010-2022: 85.9F (+3.8F)

September

1873-1900: 73.2F

2010-2022: 76.7F (+3.5F)

[Danny8]

57 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

 

- Is it possible to look at some other non-urban locations with long PORs - such as INL or other small cities in WI, MI, IN, IA?  Even Rockford IL and any metro suburban areas expereince significant UHI.  Of course, if UHI is a significant driver of warmth where people actually live, it's bad.  I'm just trying to parse out what is UHI driven warming vs. overall "background" Earth warming.

I've been curious about exactly this. The University of Michigan Ann Arbor records go back to 1881 on the NWS site. And University of Illinois at Champaign back to 1888. Would love to know more that haven't moved at all since the 1800s

[Harry]

Funny thing about this stuff is if you go to long standing smaller climo sites that have not seen the  urban explosion you don't see nearly the same warming etc. Makes me wonder how much of it is due to population etc growth aka urban heat island effect? 

Ofcourse I am nearly certain the lakes are warmer then they have been in a long time and I am near certain that has much to do with the increase in snowfall downwind in areas such as here.  Atleast in the past 25 years or so. 

[TheClimateChanger]

The 19th century March high temperatures for these big cities, mostly in the southern Great Lakes, are comparable to modern averages at places like International Falls, Duluth, and Green Bay! How can the urban heat island effect cause that? This is an incredible shift, considering how cold we consider those locations today.

Cleveland, Ohio

1872-1900: 40.9F

Milwaukee, Wisconsin

1874-1900: 37.1F

Detroit, Michigan

1874-1900: 39.7F

Chicago, Illinois

1873-1900: 40.9F

Minneapolis, Minnesota

1873-1900: 36.7F

 

Modern Equivalents

 

Green Bay, Wisconsin

2010-2022: 41.6F [warmer than Cleveland, Detroit and Chicago, and significantly warmer than Minneapolis and Milwaukee in the 19th century]

Duluth, Minnesota

2010-2022: 37.1F [same as Milwaukee, warmer than Minneapolis, only a couple/few degrees cooler than lower Lakes]

International Falls, Minnesota

2010-2022: 37.4F [warmer than 19th century Milwaukee and Minneapolis, a couple/few degrees cooler than lower Lakes]

[Harry]

1 hour ago, Danny8 said:

I've been curious about exactly this. The University of Michigan Ann Arbor records go back to 1881 on the NWS site. And University of Illinois at Champaign back to 1888. Would love to know more that haven't moved at all since the 1800s

 

Lansing goes back to the 1860s or used to? I looked at a few of them a decade or so ago. Even  Coldwater had data back to 1880 or so. 

[weatherbo]

 You had a favorable setup.  Lake MI hasn't warmed enough to change your snow climo. JFC.

 

[Harry]

1 minute ago, TheClimateChanger said:

The 19th century March high temperatures for these big cities, mostly in the southern Great Lakes, compare to modern averages at places like International Falls, Duluth, and Green Bay! How can the urban heat island effect cause that?

Cleveland, Ohio

1872-1900: 40.9F

Milwaukee, Wisconsin

1874-1900: 37.1F

Detroit, Michigan

1874-1900: 39.7F

Chicago, Illinois

1873-1900: 40.9F

Minneapolis, Minnesota

1873-1900: 36.7F

 

Modern Equivalents

 

Green Bay, Wisconsin

2010-2022: 41.6F [warmer than Cleveland, Detroit and Chicago, and significantly warmer than Minneapolis and Milwaukee in the 19th century]

Duluth, Minnesota

2010-2022: 37.1F [same as Milwaukee, warmer than Minneapolis, only a couple/few degrees cooler than lower Lakes]

International Falls, Minnesota

2010-2022: 37.4F [warmer than 19th century Milwaukee and Minneapolis, a couple/few degrees cooler than lower Lakes]

 

Try looking at climo sites that have not seen such urban sprawl etc. Quite a few that go back to 1880s and even earlier in some cases. 

[Harry]

2 minutes ago, weatherbo said:

 You had a favorable setup.  Lake MI hasn't warmed enough to change your snow climate. JFC.

 

 

When I moved here I was told by many ( even a few on this forum ) I was to far inland to get into decent lake effect. 

Keep in mind the average snowfall here between 1920-1950 was just over 40 vs today's near 70. The 80s saw a bump up and 90s back down a bit but from 2000 onward it has just exploded. The data for here goes back to 1895 and before 66-67 ( 96.8 )no winter had topped 80 and since 2000 the 90 mark alone has been topped 6-7times and the 100 twice. 

What else would it be? 

[TheClimateChanger]

16 minutes ago, Harry said:

 

Try looking at climo sites that have not seen such urban sprawl etc. Quite a few that go back to 1880s and even earlier in some cases. 

Urban heat island effect can explain some of the local warming. But how can Urban Heat Island effect explain that Minneapolis had a colder average high in March from 1873-1900 [1900 population: 202,000] than International Falls [a town of 5800 on the Canadian border known as the "icebox of the nation] or Duluth, Minnesota [a city of 86,000 on the shores of Lake Superior]? Or that the average March high in Chicago [1900 population: 1.7M], Detroit [1900 population: 286,000], and Cleveland [1900 population: 382,000] in the same period is less than Green Bay's [pop: 107,000] high in the most recent 13 years?

[Harry]

6 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Urban heat island effect can explain some of the local warming. But how can Urban Heat Island effect explain that Minneapolis had a colder average high in March from 1873-1900 [1900 population: 202,000] than International Falls [a town of 5800 on the Canadian border known as the "icebox of the nation] or Duluth, Minnesota [a city of 86,000 on the shores of Lake Superior]? Or that the average March high in Chicago [1900 population: 1.7M], Detroit [1900 population: 286,000], and Cleveland [1900 population: 382,000] in the same period is less than Green Bay's [pop: 107,000] high in the most recent 13 years?

 

The lake I would think would keep it a bit warmer. I know Lake Michigan has saved our asses a few times from the coldest stuff the region has seen since I have lived here. Note record lows here vs say Ft. Wayne. Many of times it has been zero here vs -10s and even -20s west of the lake and down south of here across Indiana etc. A few times it helped to get lake effect ramped up as the cold air tries coming in via the SW/S clashing with the warmer air via the lake/nw/w flow. 

This region has some incredible micro climates going because of these lakes which I have always find interesting to say the least. Can affect snowfall, temps, and even severe wx in spring/early summer. 

[Stebo]

2 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Urban heat island effect can explain some of the local warming. But how can Urban Heat Island effect explain that Minneapolis had a colder average high in March from 1873-1900 [1900 population: 202,000] than International Falls [a town of 5800 on the Canadian border known as the "icebox of the nation] or Duluth, Minnesota [a city of 86,000 on the shores of Lake Superior]? Or that the average March high in Chicago [1900 population: 1.7M], Detroit [1900 population: 286,000], and Cleveland [1900 population: 382,000] in the same period is less than Green Bay's [pop: 107,000] high in the most recent 13 years?

There wasn't much cement around in 1900

[michsnowfreak]

Why are we comparing 1872-1900 (a 29 year set that ends with the coldest march on record) to 2010-2022 (an only 13 year data-set which includes the record warmest Mar 2012). March is definitely warmer now than the 1870s. But thats absolute cherry picking.

 

BTW temps in the 1870s-1910s were usually taken on top of skyscraper buildings. Not sure how much that affects things.
 

Heres avg midwest snowfall from 1930-31 thru 1959-60 vs 2007-08 thru 2013-14

--- 1930-60 - 2007-14

DTW - 32.7" - 59.8"

TOL - 28.4" - 46.7"

CLE - 47.1" - 65.9"

ORD - 34.1" - 50.9"

MKE - 42.5" - 59.0"

MSN - 37.3" - 65.6"

MSP - 39.8" - 53.9"

GRB - 41.0" - 70.8"

IND - 17.5" - 31.1"

[mnchaserguy]

My point and click says 4-8” Friday night. This is getting a bit ridiculous.


.

[WestMichigan]

32 minutes ago, mnchaserguy said:

My point and click says 4-8” Friday night. This is getting a bit ridiculous.


.

Enjoy the amazing winter you have had/continue to have.

[mnchaserguy]

Some pretty wide ranges being thrown out by MPX. Goes to show how hard this one is going to be to predict.


.

[A-L-E-K]

16 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Mean March maxima for various cities in the Midwestern U.S. Using high temperatures here to minimize impacts of urban heat island effect. Any thoughts? Seems a lot more of an increase than I would have expected, considering the warming is said to be about 1C.

Cleveland, Ohio

1872-1900: 40.9F

2010-2022: 48.2F (+7.3F)

Milwaukee, Wisconsin

1874-1900: 37.1F

2010-2022: 44.1F (+7.0F)

Detroit, Michigan

1874-1900: 39.7F

2010-2022: 47.4F (+7.7F)

Chicago, Illinois

1873-1900: 40.9F

2010-2022: 47.6F (+6.7F)

Minneapolis, Minnesota

1873-1900: 36.7F

2010-2022: 43.3F (+6.6F)

low 60s before i die for sure

[TheClimateChanger]

9 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Why are we comparing 1872-1900 (a 29 year set that ends with the coldest march on record) to 2010-2022 (an only 13 year data-set which includes the record warmest Mar 2012). March is definitely warmer now than the 1870s. But thats absolute cherry picking.

 

BTW temps in the 1870s-1910s were usually taken on top of skyscraper buildings. Not sure how much that affects things.
 

Heres avg midwest snowfall from 1930-31 thru 1959-60 vs 2007-08 thru 2013-14

--- 1930-60 - 2007-14

DTW - 32.7" - 59.8"

TOL - 28.4" - 46.7"

CLE - 47.1" - 65.9"

ORD - 34.1" - 50.9"

MKE - 42.5" - 59.0"

MSN - 37.3" - 65.6"

MSP - 39.8" - 53.9"

GRB - 41.0" - 70.8"

IND - 17.5" - 31.1"

It's not cherry-picking. I used all of the 19th century data available for each site - generally between about 27 and 30 years [30 years being a full climatological period], and compared it to the data since the beginning of the last decade. I did check the numbers with data for 2000-2009, and incomplete data for 2023, and it only decreases a small amount. You are welcome to run the analysis yourself. Average high temperatures were selected to minimize effects of urban heating - which is much more pronounced in the overnight minima.

Second, the first skyscraper wasn't even built until 1885. Most weather data was collected on low rise buildings in that era, no more than 100 feet or so above street level - typically even less. Anthony Watts, et al. has shown that rooftop temperatures have a massive warm bias compared to readings taken at ground level. See: https://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/01/23/how-not-to-measure-temperature-part-48-noaa-admits-to-error-with-baltimores-rooftop-ushcn-station/.

Look at the data he presents for Baltimore Custom House (a rooftop site) compared to the ground-level readings at Baltimore Harbor. The rooftop site had 81 days of 90+ (including 13 days of 100+), while the ground site had only 38 (and none at or above 100). So, if anything, these early rooftop readings are likely WAY too high, not too low.

[cyclone77]

A few flurries spitting out this morning.  Temps will only make it to around 40 here, but will be near 60 down where we're heading later today.   

[SolidIcewx]

A neat observation. 42 In Rockwood MI with snow flakes mixing in and occasionally brief waves of slightly heavier snowfall 

[michsnowfreak]

11 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

It's not cherry-picking. I used all of the 19th century data available for each site - generally between about 27 and 30 years [30 years being a full climatological period], and compared it to the data since the beginning of the last decade. I did check the numbers with data for 2000-2009, and incomplete data for 2023, and it only decreases a small amount. You are welcome to run the analysis yourself. Average high temperatures were selected to minimize effects of urban heating - which is much more pronounced in the overnight minima.

Second, the first skyscraper wasn't even built until 1885. Most weather data was collected on low rise buildings in that era, no more than 100 feet or so above street level - typically even less. Anthony Watts, et al. has shown that rooftop temperatures have a massive warm bias compared to readings taken at ground level. See: https://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/01/23/how-not-to-measure-temperature-part-48-noaa-admits-to-error-with-baltimores-rooftop-ushcn-station/.

Look at the data he presents for Baltimore Custom House (a rooftop site) compared to the ground-level readings at Baltimore Harbor. The rooftop site had 81 days of 90+ (including 13 days of 100+), while the ground site had only 38 (and none at or above 100). So, if anything, these early rooftop readings are likely WAY too high, not too low.

I called it cherry picking because Im not a fan of comparing apples to oranges. if you are going to do one 30-year period do another 30-year period. The avg March temp for Detroit's first 30 years of data (1874-1903) and the most recent 30 years (1993-2022) show a difference of 4.5° (33.0 to 37.5). A more compatible comparison than the high temp (which has warmed more than the low temp) of the first 27 years to the high temp to the small sample size of 13 years including record march 2012 heat.

 

I have so many documents on stats you wouldnt believe it. As said, I know Detroits climate like the back of my hand. Like I said I have no issue with stats. March is by far the month that has warmed the most since records began, and spring by far the season that has warmed the most. Locally, it is not even a contest. Spring/Summer have warmed much more than Winter/Autumn.  In fact, over the past 100 years, there has been NO warming in January or October. But March continues to be the most. 

It even shows in the snow record, as the 2000s-2010s were easily the snowiest 20-year stretch on record for Detroit, but March had the least amt of top 20 snowiest years since 2000.

Jan- 3 of top 20 since 2000

Feb- 10 of top 20 since 2000

Mar- 2 of top 20 since 2000, and 1 is this year

Apr- 5 of top 20 since 2000

Nov- 3 of top 20 since 2000

Dec- 6 of top 20 since 2000

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, SolidIcewx said:

A neat observation. 42 In Rockwood MI with snow flakes mixing in and occasionally brief waves of slightly heavier snowfall 

The temp at DTW dropped from 45 to 36 as the rain/snow moved in. We had some good gusts of snow. It reminded me of those tv shows when you can tell the fans are blowing in the snowflakes lol.

 

But nothing stuck. So with a trace, that will wrap up the March snowfall. At 15.8", Detroit ties w/ 1912 for the 6th snowiest March on record. This comes after just tying for the 6th least snowy Feb. Season snowfall sits at 37.0".

The only Marches with more snow were 1900, 1899, 1881, 2008, and 1916.

[Chambana]

Sun is getting stronger, 53 felt wonderful today. Stormy pattern shaping up, hopefully morels start popping soon. The Midwest is truly untouched when it comes to weather, blizzards, tornadoes, heatwaves, cold waves, tropical remnants and the best of all seasons. 
 

All eyes on Friday. 

[Stebo]

3 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

The temp at DTW dropped from 45 to 36 as the rain/snow moved in. We had some good gusts of snow. It reminded me of those tv shows when you can tell the fans are blowing in the snowflakes lol.

 

But nothing stuck. So with a trace, that will wrap up the March snowfall. At 15.8", Detroit ties w/ 1912 for the 6th snowiest March on record. This comes after just tying for the 6th least snowy Feb. Season snowfall sits at 37.0".

The only Marches with more snow were 1900, 1899, 1881, 2008, and 1916.

Ended up down to 34 intrahour, and then the sun came out and shot back up to 43. If someone said it was snowing 4 hours ago to me right now, I wouldn't believe them.

[weatherbo]

Little bit of winter still to go up here in the northern sub.  Ice, rain, and snow all in the cards.  Between the two rounds, if the forecast holds, could see upwards of 20 inches in parts of the UP.

[WestMichigan]

16 minutes ago, weatherbo said:

Little bit of winter still to go up here in the northern sub.  Ice, rain, and snow all in the cards.  Between the two rounds, if the forecast holds, could see upwards of 20 inches in parts of the UP.

What is your current total so far this winter?

[mnchaserguy]

I’m not quite sure how to wrap my head around our snow potential tomorrow here in MSP. It will be a very fine line between a dumping of snow and cold rain but the picture the models are painting right now is a convective band lifting north into MSP tomorrow night right as we start getting below freezing. If that happens, we could get absolutely buried. The nam and nest have been showing this scenario for a while and the HRRR, Gfs, and Euro are all on board with only spatial differences. The 12z HRRR has a 5” per hour rate in the south metro tomorrow night. It accumulates 22” in 12 hours. That is insane. I’m not sure how to process something like that happening around here.


.