Nowcast and obs for Wednesday evening through Thursday night's wintry mix storm event.

[michsnowfreak]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Those last two pictures are awesome. Yes please! Now that is an icestorm. What was accretion? Looks like close to 1”

It was closer to a half inch or a little more here but the hardest hit area was around Ann Arbor. As crappy as this Winter has been, this was our third "picture postcard" event in the past month (Jan 22 & Jan 25 snowstorms). The beauty of ice is incredible but I'll take snow all day everyday. When you hear the cracking of ice laden tree limbs all around you; it's a different feel than being outside in a snowstorm or thunderstorm. There seems to be more ice storm signals on the extended GFS which of course means anybody is game.

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

It was closer to a half inch or a little more here but the hardest hit area was around Ann Arbor. As crappy as this Winter has been, this was our third "picture postcard" event in the past month (Jan 22 & Jan 25 snowstorms). The beauty of ice is incredible but I'll take snow all day everyday. When you hear the cracking of ice laden tree limbs all around you; it's a different feel than being outside in a snowstorm or thunderstorm. There seems to be more ice storm signals on the extended GFS which of course means anybody is game.

I heard that snapping sound today but me time as I happened to be walking out to my truck . It’s getting pretty late in the season for big ice. They really need to happen at night 

[Whineminster]

14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Those last two pictures are awesome. Yes please! Now that is an icestorm. What was accretion? Looks like close to 1”

Ice is absolutely the best. I'd take a big damage icer any day over a HECS. Glad you got a taste today. 

[#NoPoles]

8 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Go go go. How's the knee

Knee is ok, not skiing this year. The recovery period took longer than normal because my kneecap wouldnt track correctly for a few months after I was allowed to walk without  the brace and crutches. But, things feel good now. The knee is just stiff and I have to work on that hamstring. Maybe ski next season.

[michsnowfreak]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I heard that snapping sound today but me time as I happened to be walking out to my truck . It’s getting pretty late in the season for big ice. They really need to happen at night 

I can't upload videos from Facebook here, but I took several videos. This is a screenshot of one where the sky is lighting up blue green from transformers blowing in the distance. The left side is the normal view, the right side is while the transformer is blowing

[ORH_wxman]

9 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

Ice is absolutely the best. I'd take a big damage icer any day over a HECS. Glad you got a taste today. 

We’re maxed out after 2008. We’ll never see another like that in our lifetimes. It was a life storm for ORH hills over to far NE MA and far S NH. 

[tamarack]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We’re maxed out after 2008. We’ll never see another like that in our lifetimes. It was a life storm for ORH hills over to far NE MA and far S NH. 

I feel the same about 1998, especially since it was precisely 45 years from the NNJ ice storm that piqued my interest in both weather and trees.

[Damage In Tolland]

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We’re maxed out after 2008. We’ll never see another like that in our lifetimes. It was a life storm for ORH hills over to far NE MA and far S NH. 

Maybe we can get one south of there. This setup we have now was ideal and how you’d do it . Just not quite enough qpf 

[CoastalWx]

1.2” now. 

[powderfreak]

Light snow starting up with Round 2.

[jbenedet]

Freezing drizzle

[ORH_wxman]

11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Maybe we can get one south of there. This setup we have now was ideal and how you’d do it . Just not quite enough qpf 

Yeah you want to see at least 1.5” of QPF for a big icer…preferably higher than 2” but this storm had pretty efficient accretion down there due to generally light rates so it prob could’ve been a real biggie if it had even 1.4-1.6 of QPF. 
 

If your accretion efficiency was 80% which is above the median of 72%, then 2 inches of ice QPF will produce 1.6” of flat ice accretion which is about 0.70” of radial ice (radial ice is usually about 40% of flat ice). In 2008, I measured close to an inch of radial ice, which was incredible considering we didn’t have super efficient accretion rates in that one….but shear QPF overwhelmed the efficiency issues in that. We were putting up 3-4” of QPF. 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah you want to see at least 1.5” of QPF for a big icer…preferably higher than 2” but this storm had pretty efficient accretion down there due to generally light rates so it prob could’ve been a real biggie if it had even 1.4-1.6 of QPF. 
 

If your accretion efficiency was 80% which is above the median of 72%, then 2 inches of ice accretion will produce 1.6” of flat ice which is about 0.70” of radial ice (radial ice is usually about 40% of flat ice). In 2008, I measured close to an inch of radial ice, which was incredible considering we didn’t have super efficient accretion rates in that one….but shear QPF overwhelmed the efficiency issues in that. We were putting up 3-4” of QPF. 

And the craziest part of that one was it was a full blown coastal . That might be the only coastal to ever do what that one did .. at least over such a large area. Typically they are overrunning like 1973 or the 1998 one . There was one coastal icestorm here when I lived at my first house at 650’ early 2000’s. and I remember Walt wrote the AFD. Models were showing snow and sleet and he sniffed out the ice threat that morning. There was almost .75 accretion where I live now but we had half that at 650. 

[Lava Rock]

6" from round 1.

Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk

[ORH_wxman]

33 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

And the craziest part of that one was it was a full blown coastal . That might be the only coastal to ever do what that one did .. at least over such a large area. Typically they are overrunning like 1973 or the 1998 one . There was one coastal icestorm here when I lived at my first house at 650’ early 2000’s. and I remember Walt wrote the AFD. Models were showing snow and sleet and he sniffed out the ice threat that morning. There was almost .75 accretion where I live now but we had half that at 650. 

1973 was actually a coastal too but not like 2008 was. It was more elongated but def still a coastal storm. 

[ineedsnow]

Tonight's stuff forming in NY now

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

1973 was actually a coastal too but not like 2008 was. It was more elongated but def still a coastal storm. 

1926 was a coastal as well...

This may be the only place on Earth that gets ice storms from nor'easters ... anything to stop it from snowing   

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

1926 was a coastal as well...

This may be the only place on Earth that gets ice storms from nor'easter   

I think you mean 1921? The November all-timer that crushed all the way down to south of PVD? 
 

But yeah, that was a coastal too. Kind of like a colder version of 2008. 

[wxeyeNH]

Part 2 has begun.   It looked like i would be right on the snow/sleet line but hoped it would start up as snow.

Not... 17.9  Sleet

[powderfreak]

Snow has picked back up. Round two moving in.  It’s loud snow mixed in… not quite sleet, not quiet all snow either.

[DavisStraight]

12 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Snow has picked back up. Round two moving in.  It’s loud snow mixed in… not quite sleet, not quiet all snow either.

Piles are getting big up there, how much on the ground where you live?

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, DavisStraight said:

Piles are getting big up there, how much on the ground where you live?

Where I live is around a foot, not too much. It’s more like 18-20” up here.  I’m MOD tonight so hanging at the ski area till 8pm watching it snow, ha.

Stake is up to 52”.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, powderfreak said:

Where I live is around a foot, not too much. It’s more like 18-20” up here.  I’m MOD tonight so hanging at the ski area till 8pm watching it snow, ha.

Even a foot is pretty much deep winter. What the average pack for Stowe village (not the mountain) in late Feb? 18ish? But the foot you have is obscenely dense. 

[powderfreak]

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Even a foot is pretty much deep winter. What the average pack for Stowe village (not the mountain) in late Feb? 18ish? But the foot you have is obscenely dense. 

Yeah we don’t do deep pack to be honest, we do consistent pack.  I’d wager 12-18” is a zone we live in most winters for a long period of time.  Like you said, this pack is essentially a 6” block of ice with 6” of recent synoptic snow on top of it. 

The Stake is really only one more event away from normal too.  10” under normal can be easily made up.  Tonight might get closer.

[Damage In Tolland]

22 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Snow has picked back up. Round two moving in.  It’s loud snow mixed in… not quite sleet, not quiet all snow either.

All bass.. a little treble?

[Modfan2]

What are we expecting overnight? Temp has been holding at 31F most of the afternoon 

[HoarfrostHubb]

2 hours ago, Whineminster said:

Ice is absolutely the best. I'd take a big damage icer any day over a HECS. Glad you got a taste today. 

I’m done with big ice and heavy damage for my area.  Been there done that.  Not fun.  Can be $$$

[dendrite]

20.5° -SN

4.6”/0.56” so far. Dense powder.

[FXWX]

Close of the icing on the blades of one of my anemometers...

[wxeyeNH]

8 minutes ago, dendrite said:

20.5° -SN

4.6”/0.56” so far. Dense powder.

Wow,  I'm just getting some snow grains with larger sleet pellets.  No snow.  Weird and I'm 20 miles north of you.