Nowcast and obs for Wednesday evening through Thursday night's wintry mix storm event.

[Typhoon Tip]

Setting the table on a possibly "moderate" impact winter storm.  Perhaps the most promising event to date, this season.

Presently...  

Radar upstream argues for a stronger precipitation loading than some of the guidance have been illustrating.

 

However ... these rad looks can be deceptively over and under suggestive, either way. Therefore, that statement is not an aver for a big deal here...just that at this hour, that arc is pretty potent looking as it advances E into PA and matching that against the axis positioning by the guidance, it's not impossible that just ends up through the region with some higher fall rates. Combining...some of these recent guidances ( last hours) going colder with 200 mb of the sfc, is worth it to mention.  

Re that: the new NAM solution has almost doubled the Logan numbers, and I'm seeing an uptick out around ALB.   Judging by radar return and overall lay-out, this is tentatively a nod to a better performance. While also cooling the column below 800 mb sigma

Sat presentation has the abrupt ceiling advancing, shielding the skiess rather abruptly ...already so western regions.

T/DP spread around the region looks like this, ..biasing the obs to NW-N regions because this is our loading source for the lower troposphere later this evening and throughout ( particularly) Thursday.

 

[FXWX]

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Setting the table on a possibly "moderate" impact winter storm.  Perhaps the most promising event to date, this season.

Presently...  

Radar upstream argues for a stronger precipitation loading than some of the guidance have been illustrating.

 

However ... these rad looks can be deceptively over and under suggestive, either way. Therefore, that statement is not an aver for a big deal here...just that at this hour, that arc is pretty potent looking as it advances E into PA and matching that against the axis positioning by the guidance, it's not impossible that just ends up through the region with some higher fall rates. Combining...some of these recent guidances ( last hours) going colder with 200 mb of the sfc, is worth it to mention.  

Re that: the new NAM solution has almost doubled the Logan numbers, and I'm seeing an uptick out around ALB.   Judging by radar return and overall lay-out, this is tentatively a nod to a better performance. While also cooling the column below 800 mb sigma

Sat presentation has the abrupt ceiling advancing, shielding the skiess rather abruptly ...already so western regions.

T/DP spread around the region looks like this, ..biasing the obs to NW-N regions because this is our loading source for the lower troposphere later this evening and throughout ( particularly) Thursday.

 

Noting some moderate snow obs (0.5 vis) across northeast PA? KAVP & KMPO

[tunafish]

41/17, PC 

[FXWX]

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Setting the table on a possibly "moderate" impact winter storm.  Perhaps the most promising event to date, this season.

Presently...  

Radar upstream argues for a stronger precipitation loading than some of the guidance have been illustrating.

 

However ... these rad looks can be deceptively over and under suggestive, either way. Therefore, that statement is not an aver for a big deal here...just that at this hour, that arc is pretty potent looking as it advances E into PA and matching that against the axis positioning by the guidance, it's not impossible that just ends up through the region with some higher fall rates. Combining...some of these recent guidances ( last hours) going colder with 200 mb of the sfc, is worth it to mention.  

Re that: the new NAM solution has almost doubled the Logan numbers, and I'm seeing an uptick out around ALB.   Judging by radar return and overall lay-out, this is tentatively a nod to a better performance. While also cooling the column below 800 mb sigma

Sat presentation has the abrupt ceiling advancing, shielding the skiess rather abruptly ...already so western regions.

T/DP spread around the region looks like this, ..biasing the obs to NW-N regions because this is our loading source for the lower troposphere later this evening and throughout ( particularly) Thursday.

 

[TalcottWx]

Snowing 40F Simsbury 

 

 

[wokeupthisam]

35.2F / 23.9F

[TalcottWx]

36F now and dropping with a rain snow mix. Simsbury. 

[512high]

Was at 38 an hour ago, now 41, cloudy.

[Modfan2]

40F and cloudy in Brooklyn 

[TalcottWx]

7 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

36F now and dropping with a rain snow mix. Simsbury. 

Not rain. All snow. Just the worst snow growth you've ever seen. 

[TalcottWx]

Looking to my west, I would assume accumulations in northern CT. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Lightly snowing in Hubbardston MA.  At least some snow in the air 3 straight days.   

[TalcottWx]

Snowing pretty good here now. Weeeeee

[mreaves]

27.6°/12.7°  BTV has bumped me up a little

 

[Modfan2]

Light snow now and 39F in Brooklyn 

[TalcottWx]

Need the stronger stuff to move in. Ugly small flakes continue. 

[Spaizzo]

Snow/sleet some rain mixed in we keep flip flopping down here in Ansonia. Dropped from 42-37 and a dew of 29....

[HIPPYVALLEY]

35/34.  Overcast in Greenfield.

[TalcottWx]

Not impressed with radar VS an hour ago. Far too messy. Looks pretty good north and east. 

[WxWatcher007]

Nada here in Hartford so far.

[dryslot]

OVC, 33/10°F

[WxWatcher007]

First flakes in Hartford 

[TalcottWx]

14 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

First flakes in Hartford 

Over before it started. On to zr. 

[ROOSTA]

High Temperature Today: 86.3F
Around 90F for the next several days.
Would much rather be tracking snow!!!!
~6" around MA/NH, VT border... 1Ft in ski country...WINTER. 

[ORH_wxman]

36/24 with snow imminent. Not expecting much though as radar looks like ka-ka. Might get a decent little burst here though over the next hour or two. Hopefully it fills in a bit. 

[CoastalWx]

Sleet to Tolland. Pike area probably won’t see much.

[powderfreak]

21/8 with north wind at 10 mph.

Its gotten cold this afternoon.  Going to wet-bulb into the teens with precip.

[DavisStraight]

35 light snow

[WxWatcher007]

31 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

Over before it started. On to zr. 

 

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Sleet to Tolland. Pike area probably won’t see much.

Yup. We ping.

 

Edit: mix of ping and snow in Manchester.

[ORH_wxman]

First weenie flakes here.