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March Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

As is, it's close for this far out.   But it's rain for I-95 back to HGR.  Goes over to light to mod snow for I-95 after heavy rains.  Around hr 234

Strangely, that's not as bad an outcome as I would have thought given how things looked earlier on.  Just need to punch that damned SER down more, somehow, some way!

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Just now, CAPE said:

Not a bad run. Key features just a little off from 12z run, specifically the timing/location/strength of the vortices underneath the developing NAO ridge. Less confluence and weaker surface HP in eastern Canada as the low approaches.

Agree.  It wouldn't take much with that depiction.   Definitely don't expect models to nail down key features rn

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7 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Let’s see if the MJO is really going to headinto Phase 8.   I think that is the shakeup we need to move this pattern.  If it stays in the null, we stay in the null for snow….

09D0AB78-D4A5-4894-989D-2E52DE098429.png

1EA395E3-D6E1-43EA-A1B8-14337BE69121.png

The MJO is probably never gonna get "there" as long as we are in a Nina. Even in a decaying Nina, by the time the atmosphere responds it will be March 27th or something. Best to stop looking at it.

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1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

Then what mechanism/forcing moves the SER?  The strat. warm?

The Nina needs to continue to decay. That will shift the location of the persistent +height anomalies in the Pacific, and thus the location of the downstream trough and eastern ridge. We need a longwave pattern phase shift, and it probably wont happen in a major way until our climo goes to crap in the Spring. Good news is these features never stay fixed in one location. A few tweaks on the Pacific side with a favorable NA, in conjunction with shorter wavelengths as we approach Spring can get it done.

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6 minutes ago, CAPE said:

18z GEFS is meh. Signal for a NW track on the mean is pretty strong. A step back from 12z, but still way out there. Look at the changes we are seeing for the 28th the last couple runs. Long way to go. The BASE STATE is Pacific suckage. That isn't going to change anytime soon.

0z is gonna be rockin'.

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18z GEFS is meh. Signal for a NW track on the mean is pretty strong. A step back from 12z, but still way out there. Look at the changes we are seeing for the 28th the last couple runs. Long way to go. The BASE STATE is Pacific suckage. That isn't going to change anytime soon.

That Feb 28 storm was off the nc coast 3 days ago lol
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1 hour ago, CAPE said:

18z GEFS is meh. Signal for a NW track on the mean is pretty strong. A step back from 12z, but still way out there. Look at the changes we are seeing for the 28th the last couple runs. Long way to go. The BASE STATE is Pacific suckage. That isn't going to change anytime soon.

Is our BASE STATE due to climate change? I’ll see myself out now and suspend my account until the day it snows. I’ll miss you all, but I have 7,953 beers in my fridge. That should be enough days to see snow again right!? I’m terrible at math. :lol:

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1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

WB latest extended GEFS coming in colder for mid month…

35BCB7D1-2D9C-47C1-810C-E7218CDCFEA3.png

7D75B84D-385F-41E6-98C2-26AB36810E5F.png

CFS is in agreement during this period:cfs-avg_T2maMean_us_4.thumb.png.d62ed208ad03f8fb07eae9c83d3af483.png

 

Then has a half decent H5 look towards the end of March with a semblance of a ridge out West, a -NAO, and a flat SER:cfs-avg_z500aMean_nhem_5.thumb.png.699098a567acbd055dd8dd9f2d1ceaad.png

 

It keeps the BN theme going thru the first week of April:cfs-avg_T2maMean_us_6.thumb.png.9d1a9243867ebea3e8127fdfbfea388d.png

 

Enjoy the warm day tomorrow while you can :sun:

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