pazzo83 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: I don’t think we can blame the pac. It’s far from ideal but there is a trough just south of the Aleutians much of the time and at times the trough gets east of Hawaii. Combined with the block there isn’t much reason there for the trough to get caught in the NW and cut off. When the trough gets east of Hawaii instead of forcing it out it just gets absorbed! Honestly looking at the loop on the Gfs these last couple days it’s as if the subtropical eastern N Amer ridge is more cause than effect. That evolution makes sense if the SER is acting like a mid lat block itself. We don’t factor it that way because during winter that heat source has never been strong enough to bully the mid latitude jet but maybe that equation has changed? If the SER is a cause not an effect it really changes things a lot! Im just speculating here. But the Pac western US wave spacing is absolutely absurd on some of these Gfs runs ETA; to clarify what I mean here, a great pac would obviously still obliterate a SER. But what if the SER is not ONLY an effect but equal parts a driver? Would explain why there is almost no variance lately. We have had some brief periods this winter where the pac forcing was temporarily reversed or in transition and it made little difference to the SER. That sounds like a problem and tbh is pretty disturbing if that is really what is happening here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 I am no expert. I just don’t see an appreciable difference at Day 6 between the 2 models at 18Z. When I compare the 12Z EPS to the 18Z EPS it is a tick different with more trough in the west….is it noise or a trend? We will know at 0Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 I am no expert. I just don’t see an appreciable difference at Day 6 between the 2 models. When I compare the 12Z to the 18Z EPS it is a tick different with more trough in the west….is it noise or a trend? We will know at 0Z.Or maybe will know in 3 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 8 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: idk if some of you guys are doing like some weird reverse psychology coping mechanism stuff saying that the GFS “won” or whatever, but it makes zero sense and it’s kind of annoying i get the cynicism, but come on 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 1 minute ago, Ji said: Or maybe will know in 3 days yup, all of this should be sorted by then. probably sooner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 I am being sincere. When you compare the GFS ensemble hour 144 to EPS 144, please explain why you think they are that different. I just don’t see it, I would like to understand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: I am being sincere. When you compare the GFS ensemble hour 144 to EPS 144, please explain why you think they are that different. I just don’t see it, I would like to understand. i posted about it in detail a few minutes earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 24 minutes ago, Ji said: Gfs wins again. No surprise Go with the hot hand and least snowiest model output. I dont want this to fail but if it is going to, let's get it out of the way now please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 the “hot” and “cold” model stuff is just confirmation bias it’s the equivalent of playing Call of Duty and saying “as soon as i stop looking around this corner and move somewhere else I die!” when in reality you don’t get shot most of the time. you only pick up on it when it does happen it’s the same thing 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 We do have a good pattern in place and a strong signal for an event. It's hard to get excited considering how many times we've been screwed in 2021 by events that started north of the MD line. Seems like we end up on the southern fringe of KU storms a lot, and of course not pattern will ensure it doesn't happen again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Woah......If Amped is saying there's a good pattern in place I'm pushing all my chips in lol. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 16 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: the “hot” and “cold” model stuff is just confirmation bias it’s the equivalent of playing Call of Duty and saying “as soon as i stop looking around this corner and move somewhere else I die!” when in reality you don’t get shot most of the time. you only pick up on it when it does happen it’s the same thing I understand what you are saying, but certain model biases allows those models to go a run/streak if the patterns and similar biases set in for a period. We have seen countless times where even AFDs have mentioned such and such model verification scores have been high recently so more weight is being given to said model. Maybe my "hot hand" is sort of vague or broadbrushing or lacked the "verification scores" terminology, but there is substance behind what I said. Now have I looked at a verification chart in the past 4 weeks? I have not, so maybe I'm just bias to this Friday system where the GFS led the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fujiwara79 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 5 hours ago, Interstate said: IDK. Jan of 16 was pretty awesome. That was the most intense snow I have ever seen. Yeah I've experienced PD2, Blizzard96, Jan16, and the 09-10 storms. All amazing. But the March 93 storm was an atmospheric marvel. Ironically, if the storm was just slightly less amped, it probably would have taken a more easterly track and crushed the megalopolis areas with 30" totals too. But that storm was on steroids. There were radar echos in the Gulf that were way past dark red - they were violet and white. I've never seen echoes that intense in such a large area. The 30 year anniversary is coming up! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 20 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I understand what you are saying, but certain model biases allows those models to go a run/streak if the patterns and similar biases set in for a period. We have seen countless times where even AFDs have mentioned such and such model verification scores have been high recently so more weight is being given to said model. Maybe my "hot hand" is sort of vague or broadbrushing or lacked the "verification scores" terminology, but there is substance behind what I said. Now have I looked at a verification chart in the past 4 weeks? I have not, so maybe I'm just bias to this Friday system where the GFS led the way. speaking of, here is the current verification charts for GFS and euro 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 9 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said: speaking of, here is the current verification charts for GFS and euro That big dip in gfs performance was around the perfect track rainstorm in mid feb, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 This truly is the most important night of the winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Where is Chuck? Getting the Chuck Bus ready to roll? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Lol we’re going right to a historic nino Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 4 minutes ago, Ji said: Lol we’re going right to a historic nino Thankfully the Spring unpredictability barrier for enso is just starting, lol I'm telling you, if we get an overwhelming niño that torches all the way through, and then spawns two more ninas (like the last two did), SO HELP ME! That would be a nightmare scenario, tbh 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Thankfully the Spring unpredictability barrier for enso is just starting, lol I'm telling you, if we get an overwhelming niño that torches all the way through, and then spawns two more ninas (like the last two did), SO HELP ME! That would be a nightmare scenario, tbh That would end me. No snow until like 2026. What if it’s a Nina 3-peat? After the super nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: That would end me. No snow until like 2026. What if it’s a Nina 3-peat? After the super nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Thankfully the Spring unpredictability barrier for enso is just starting, lol I'm telling you, if we get an overwhelming niño that torches all the way through, and then spawns two more ninas (like the last two did), SO HELP ME! That would be a nightmare scenario, tbhIf we get one cold blast/blocking with a Historic nino 50 inch storm a possibility haha 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 5 minutes ago, Ji said: If we get one cold blast/blocking with a Historic nino 50 inch storm a possibility haha I looked back...since 1966 a big blast only happened ever other super niño (65-65, 82-83, 15-16). The others (72-73, 97-98)...nope! 72-73 was particularly brutal because we just had back-to-back ninas in the two years prior. Then the super niño torched and spawned two MORE ninas! No wonder the early to mid-70s looked the way they did, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 I looked back...since 1966 a big blast only happened ever other super niño (65-65, 82-83, 15-16). The others (72-73, 97-98)...nope! 72-73 was particularly brutal because we just had back-to-back ninas in the two years prior. Then the super niño torched and spawned two MORE ninas! No wonder the early to mid-70s looked the way they did, lolSo of 5 super nino...3 gave us hecs?Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 yeah i feel like we would get lucky at least once with a super niño Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 1 hour ago, Ji said: Maybe biggest difference is separation of the troughs? Other than that it looks identical I notice the eps has the 50/50 further northeast. Wonder if that’s allowing for more progression behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 18 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I looked back...since 1966 a big blast only happened ever other super niño (65-65, 82-83, 15-16). The others (72-73, 97-98)...nope! 72-73 was particularly brutal because we just had back-to-back ninas in the two years prior. Then the super niño torched and spawned two MORE ninas! No wonder the early to mid-70s looked the way they did, lol That’s random chaos in the numbers. Correlation is not causation. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 GFS looks improved so far more poleward ridging into AK like the EPS/GEPS and the vort in the NW US is tilted more positively 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 vort isn’t hanging back as much into the Pac NW as much this run. bigggg change here 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: vort isn’t hanging back as much into the Pac NW as much this run. bigggg change here Yeah, looks like a big change to me too another thing i noticed is gfs stopped trying to link SER with -nao. Now more separation with lower heights in between 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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