March Medium/Long Range Discussion

[BristowWx]

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

it almost always goes towards the OP, though. it's a bad ensemble

Well it won’t take long to see where this is headed…few days we will see which model blinks some..move toward the other 

[brooklynwx99]

the EPS and GEPS are in absolute lock step agreement with every major pattern feature and then you have the GEFS in left field picking its nose. idk. I can't believe it right now unless the EPS or GEPS make a big shift towards it

either way, one camp is going to cave soon. let's hope it's the GEFS

[Ji]

the EPS and GEPS are in absolute lock step agreement with every major pattern feature and then you have the GEFS in left field picking its nose. idk. I can't believe it right now unless the EPS or GEPS make a big shift towards it
either way, one camp is going to cave soon. let's hope it's the GEFS

You know rule bro…..least snowy model always wins

[Weather Will]

The WB GFS is flipping around at range.  Look at the end of its run now v 12Z.  Patience is needed.  We just don’t know…

[Ji]

Well it won’t take long to see where this is headed…few days we will see which model blinks some..move toward the other 

Sounds like we are taking about the March 4th storm from 5 days ago lol

[Heisy]

the EPS and GEPS are in absolute lock step agreement with every major pattern feature and then you have the GEFS in left field picking its nose. idk. I can't believe it right now unless the EPS or GEPS make a big shift towards it
either way, one camp is going to cave soon. let's hope it's the GEFS

I probably have PTSD from the next event upcoming. I realize GEFS ensemble will almost always follow OP, but I really really want to see a fast reversal by 12z tomorrow.


.

[Ji]

The WB GFS is flipping around at range.  Look at the end of its run now v 12Z.  Patience is needed.  We just don’t know…

Maybe models shouldn’t run to 384 hours 4 times a day William. It can make them look bad

[Weather Will]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

Maybe models shouldn’t run to 384 hours 4 times a day William. It can make them look bad

My point is if it can flip in 6 hours at Day 15, it can do the same at Day 10.  We will know soon enough.

[Imgoinhungry]

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

You know rule bro…..least snowy model always wins

Always

[Heisy]

I know we’re speaking 10 days out but this is an absolutely huge difference for a mean. Like Brooklyn said we need a few days to shake things out. Just hope at this point…


.

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

The WB GFS is flipping around at range.  Look at the end of its run now v 12Z.  Patience is needed.  We just don’t know…

Jumping around yes at 378…but 192 is this event.  We will know soon enough..let’s hope we get out early if that’s our fate.  

[GaWx]

37 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I don’t think we can blame the pac. It’s far from ideal but there is a trough just south of the Aleutians much of the time and at times the trough gets east of Hawaii.  Combined with the block there isn’t much reason there for the trough to get caught in the NW and cut off. When the trough gets east of Hawaii instead of forcing it out it just gets absorbed!  
 

Honestly looking at the loop on the Gfs these last couple days it’s as if the subtropical eastern N Amer ridge is more cause than effect.  That evolution makes sense if the SER is acting like a mid lat block itself.  We don’t factor it that way because during winter that heat source has never been strong enough to bully the mid latitude jet but maybe that equation has changed?  If the SER is a cause not an effect it really changes things a lot!  
 

Im just speculating here. But the Pac western US wave spacing is absolutely absurd on some of these Gfs runs 

ETA; to clarify what I mean here, a great pac would obviously still obliterate a SER. But what if the SER is not ONLY an effect but equal parts a driver?   Would explain why there is almost no variance lately. We have had some brief periods this winter where the pac forcing was temporarily reversed or in transition and it made little difference to the SER. 

I've read from pro mets that the SER is enhanced by the record warmth in the MC of the W Pacific in addition to it being enhanced during La Nina. But is the SER also made stronger by the AMO? The AMO has been about as high during the last few years as during any other period:

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/amon.us.long.data

If the high AMO, itself, is also a significant SER strengthening factor, I could see your idea being plausible. Could it be that the overall warm Atlantic (including GOM) from the equator to 70N (one definition of the AMO) is resisting and thus providing its own blocking (manifested by the persistent SER)?

[Scraff]

I’m all aboard the Brooklyn / Chuck Storm express. They serve liquor on this bad boy? I’m gonna need some. We all will…

[Ji]

My point is if it can flip in 6 hours at Day 15, it can do the same at Day 10.  We will know soon enough.

Try to relax

Jb on board

[psuhoffman]

18 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Awesome, looks like GEFS went towards the OP, this winter…



.

Gefs retrogrades the pac. But honestly by day 10 I like that look better than the stuck in between look of 12z. It allows the conus ridge to back into the SW.   It’s cold but dry unless we get something to dive into the east but in March that can work sometimes. Certainly not as good as the euro progression. Crazy worlds apart starting at like day 6. 

[TSSN+]

[CAPE]

12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I don’t think we can blame the pac. It’s far from ideal but there is a trough just south of the Aleutians much of the time and at times the trough gets east of Hawaii.  Combined with the block there isn’t much reason there for the trough to get caught in the NW and cut off. When the trough gets east of Hawaii instead of forcing it out it just gets absorbed!  
 

Honestly looking at the loop on the Gfs these last couple days it’s as if the subtropical eastern N Amer ridge is more cause than effect.  That evolution makes sense if the SER is acting like a mid lat block itself.  We don’t factor it that way because during winter that heat source has never been strong enough to bully the mid latitude jet but maybe that equation has changed?  If the SER is a cause not an effect it really changes things a lot!  
 

Im just speculating here. But the Pac western US wave spacing is absolutely absurd on some of these Gfs runs 

ETA; to clarify what I mean here, a great pac would obviously still obliterate a SER. But what if the SER is not ONLY an effect but equal parts a driver?   Would explain why there is almost no variance lately. We have had some brief periods this winter where the pac forcing was temporarily reversed or in transition and it made little difference to the SER. 

I keep it simple. The atmospheric longwave pattern is made up of ridges and troughs, the existence of which serve to maintain heat balance and conservation of absolute vorticity. The phase of the pattern will shift(and change the relative location of the troughs and ridges) largely due to drivers such as ENSO. At this point I still think the SE ridge is largely an effect- in this case the downstream result of a persistent upstream Aleutian ridge/-PNA blocking pattern in the Pacific. There are possibly other influences that contribute to the seemingly 'easy development' and persistence of the SER in recent winters. Not to be discussed in this here thread though.

[BristowWx]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

Try to relax

Jb on board

 

 

 

 

I wonder what he’d say with a couple 120 IPAs in him…what about DT?  He likes the Euro

[brooklynwx99]

I'm only half kidding, I think this pattern broke the GFS. like what the actual F is this

[CAPE]

4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I'm only half kidding, I think this pattern broke the GFS. like what the actual F is this

That might not even be meteorologically possible.

[psuhoffman]

13 minutes ago, GaWx said:

I've read from pro mets that the SER is enhanced by the record warmth in the MC of the W Pacific in addition to it being enhanced during La Nina. But is the SER also made stronger by the AMO? The AMO has been about as high during the last few years as during any other period:

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/amon.us.long.data

If the high AMO, itself, is also a significant SER strengthening factor, I could see your idea being plausible. Could it be that the overall warm Atlantic (including GOM) from the equator to 60N (one definition of the AMO) is resisting and thus providing its own blocking (manifested by the persistent SER)?

You’re basically speculating the same thing just using technical terms lol. I don’t know but it would explain some things. 

[frd]

1.  

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

That might not even be meteorologically possible.

Day After Tomorrow 

 

[Solution Man]

We all know how this will end

[Siberian-Snowcover-Myth]

Just now, Solution Man said:

We all know how this will end

Congrats Detroit.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

That might not even be meteorologically possible.

Reminds me of that old "that's impossible!" Little Caesar's ad:

 

[BristowWx]

5 minutes ago, Siberian-Snowcover-Myth said:

Congrats Detroit.

We are debating a day 10 storm..our new base state is delirium.  

[psuhoffman]

12 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I keep it simple. The atmospheric longwave pattern is made up of ridges and troughs, the existence of which serve to maintain heat balance and conservation of absolute vorticity. The phase of the pattern will shift(and change the relative location of the troughs and ridges) largely due to drivers such as ENSO. At this point I still think the SE ridge is largely an effect- in this case the downstream result of a persistent upstream Aleutian ridge/-PNA blocking pattern in the Pacific. There are possibly other influences that contribute to the seemingly 'easy development' and persistence of the SER in recent winters. Not to be discussed in this here thread though.

90% of the time the pac and SER have been coupled. But what vexes me are the rare times the pac was altered lately it didn’t matter. Look at what’s coming. This strong mjo wave in 7/8 is having an impact. 7/8 isn’t ideal in March but it’s way better than MC forcing. You can see coming up it’s able to alter the pacific into w more convoluted configuration. It’s not omg great but not totally hostile either. The crap base state is resisting but it’s as altered as I think we can hope for. But I could take a snapshot of various points where the ridges and troughs are in different locations in the pac yet the SER is the feature that remains constant on the Gfs.  The ridge is less emphatic than when it was being fed by every longwave feature for sure but it’s still there.  So something else has to be part of the equation.  
 

As for not talking about “that” how far does this go?  We don’t need to discuss AGW to speculate here. The entire Atlantic basin is on fire. That’s not a climate change debate that a right now reality. Not being able to discuss what’s going on RIGHT NOW is ludicrous 

[North Balti Zen]

 

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z GFS and EURO at 90 about the same.

[MN Transplant]

20 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

 

That's wild.  It looks like the temps briefly dropped to the upper 40s in Newport Beach which must have been just good enough.