Steve25 Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 There would be something so chaotic and poetic about getting a decent snow/ice storm in March just as most have completely turned the corner to Spring. Especially following one of, if not the worst December through February our region has ever seen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: It will be interesting to compare that map with the run 3 days from now. Looking forward to seeing it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Not sure what the outcome will be, but the Euro is a lot slower than the GFS leading into any potential event, which hasn't shown up yet at 192 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 6 minutes ago, Steve25 said: There would be something so chaotic and poetic about getting a decent snow/ice storm in March just as most have completely turned the corner to Spring. Especially following one of, if not the worst December through February our region has ever seen. Oh it's definitely the worst unless we get more than flurries at best on Saturday. Even our record low snowfall year of 1949-50 had 0.5 inches by this date...and we up here sitting at 0.2, lol Mercy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 This was in general to the Idea of a super cold outbreak 0z and 6z had. Flow is far to fast for anything like that. Next weekend is the best chance we have of anything this year unless there's a bomb in mid March and that don't seem likely. Just transient cold fronts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 So far, looks more CMC than GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 i do like this. huge 50/50 and -NAO dipole with a S/W coming out of the SW US. might not work verbatim, but there are some big pieces here 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Ugh..warm cutter on the Euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: i do like this. huge 50/50 and -NAO dipole with a S/W coming out of the SW US. might not work verbatim, but there are some big pieces here It doesn't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Just now, stormtracker said: It doesn't that's ok. I'll roll the dice with that setup. that 50/50 and -NAO is essential for a larger storm, so it's good to see that 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Just now, brooklynwx99 said: that's ok. I'll roll the dice with that setup. that 50/50 and -NAO is essential for a larger storm, so it's good to see that Yeah, same 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 17 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: It will be interesting to compare that map with the run 3 days from now. Yep. It has been trending better, but as we know it usually goes the other way at some point. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 2 hours ago, stormtracker said: It's still quite wintry for us, sleet, zr...no rain, soo... And for those of us who also chase digital "snow", sleet is fantastic. Really piles up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 14 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Ugh..warm cutter on the Euro Models show the coastal low for about the 6th time this season but it always ends up in the lakes. One would think their “scientific programming” could take into account strong seasonal trends. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 i do like this. huge 50/50 and -NAO dipole with a S/W coming out of the SW US. might not work verbatim, but there are some big pieces hereEuro doesn’t have a good enough NS push ahead of the main shortwave. Doesnt establish as good of a block vs gfs either by that time. Setup is there, it’s close at H5, but with this winters general theme have 0 expectations. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 39 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: i do like this. huge 50/50 and -NAO dipole with a S/W coming out of the SW US. might not work verbatim, but there are some big pieces here That trof is going to bury itself out west as we have seen all season, no reason that's going to change suddenly. Cutter season continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 38 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: that's ok. I'll roll the dice with that setup. that 50/50 and -NAO is essential for a larger storm, so it's good to see that Unless we get a pna spike in addition, I'm cashing out. You can roll all the bones you want bro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 36 minutes ago, CAPE said: Yep. It has been trending better, but as we know it usually goes the other way at some point. As we have been discussing ad nauseum we can get the most epic Atlantic look you want to see, but if this year has proven anything it is that without a +PNA we are staring down the barrel of the same loaded "close but no cigar" pattern. Now I'm not saying it can't happen, I'm saying that unless we get the right trend out west we aren't going anywhere with this one. Just my $.02 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 You post A LOT for a guy "cashing out", Ralph. If you are out, fine. be out. But please stop pooping on every page while declaring you are out. 1 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 24 minutes ago, Heisy said: Euro doesn’t have a good enough NS push ahead of the main shortwave. Doesnt establish as good of a block vs gfs either by that time. Setup is there, it’s close at H5, but with this winters general theme have 0 expectations. . Last time I will post a rebuttal here regarding the same general thoughts. Look out West. A deep -PNA is NOT going to do it. I don't care if the PV drops under the NAO (which we saw in Dec mind you, and we got the avocado polar overwhelming pattern). Let's jeep an eye on the PNA and hope we can even time a transient spike at the right time. It can happen but I really think this is the only way we score here regardless what a 240 hour surface op shows right now verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 3 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: You post A LOT for a guy "cashing out", Ralph. If you are out, fine. be out. But please stop pooping on every page while declaring you are out. Same thing if ppl post "omg look how epic the atlantic side h5 looks" over and over. I'm posting how we need more help than that. I will back the foot off the brake pedal posts, fair enough...I hear you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 50 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: that's ok. I'll roll the dice with that setup. that 50/50 and -NAO is essential for a larger storm, so it's good to see that Yea it snows here so often we should be optimistic 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Ice still in the picture though based on H5 EDIT: Probably should have made that WV snow strip stab him 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 22, 2023 Author Share Posted February 22, 2023 29 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: As we have been discussing ad nauseum we can get the most epic Atlantic look you want to see, but if this year has proven anything it is that without a +PNA we are staring down the barrel of the same loaded "close but no cigar" pattern. Now I'm not saying it can't happen, I'm saying that unless we get the right trend out west we aren't going anywhere with this one. Just my $.02 The Pacific is always the key 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 3 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: March 2001 vibes, right @psuhoffman?? how dare you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Last time I will post a rebuttal here regarding the same general thoughts. Look out West. A deep -PNA is NOT going to do it. I don't care if the PV drops under the NAO (which we saw in Dec mind you, and we got the avocado polar overwhelming pattern). Let's jeep an eye on the PNA and hope we can even time a transient spike at the right time. It can happen but I really think this is the only way we score here regardless what a 240 hour surface op shows right now verbatim. There are all sorts of issues with that period, mostly all a result of the bad pacific. I could go through the list, but I won't. If we are going to get a late win in this shitty winter it is going to have to come in a pattern with plenty of warts. A +PNA may materialize- maybe mid to late month? Or surely by early April. So yeah, you can forget that dream the way things look now lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said: The Pacific is always the key Speaking of the Pacific. Blizzard warnings in Los Angeles County right now. #WeREALLYsuckatwinter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 I am getting set for the epic HH run (lol). First up- a quick and dirty Old Fashioned in a frosted glass. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 16 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Speaking of the Pacific. Blizzard warnings in Los Angeles County right now. #WeREALLYsuckatwinter. Are they at a higher elevation? Sheesh...this winter has to be anomaly category. I mean then we talk about the base you-know-what being overall warmer then we see this mess--and they're one the west coast by the dang Pacific! It's supposed to be global **** not "just warm on the EC", lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keviepoo Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Storm Team LOCO is on the hype bus... lets goooooo!!!! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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