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March Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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6 minutes ago, Steve25 said:

There would be something so chaotic and poetic about getting a decent snow/ice storm in March just as most have completely turned the corner to Spring. Especially following one of, if not the worst December through February our region has ever seen. 

Oh it's definitely the worst unless we get more than flurries at best on Saturday. Even our record low snowfall year of 1949-50 had 0.5 inches by this date...and we up here sitting at 0.2, lol Mercy

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This was in general to the Idea of a super cold outbreak 0z and 6z had. Flow is far to fast for anything like that. Next weekend is the best chance we have of anything this year unless there's a bomb in mid March and that don't seem likely. Just transient cold fronts.

22199472-56ae-43ce-a352-6e6d68305293.gif

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i do like this. huge 50/50 and -NAO dipole with a S/W coming out of the SW US. might not work verbatim, but there are some big pieces here
ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-7801600.thumb.png.361a8ebefd6093e08a9b5177278f60fd.png

Euro doesn’t have a good enough NS push ahead of the main shortwave. Doesnt establish as good of a block vs gfs either by that time. Setup is there, it’s close at H5, but with this winters general theme have 0 expectations.


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36 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Yep. It has been trending better, but as we know it usually goes the other way at some point.

As we have been discussing ad nauseum we can get the most epic Atlantic look you want to see, but if this year has proven anything it is that without a +PNA we are staring down the barrel of the same loaded "close but no cigar" pattern. Now I'm not saying it can't happen, I'm saying that unless we get the right trend out west we aren't going anywhere with this one. Just my $.02

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24 minutes ago, Heisy said:


Euro doesn’t have a good enough NS push ahead of the main shortwave. Doesnt establish as good of a block vs gfs either by that time. Setup is there, it’s close at H5, but with this winters general theme have 0 expectations.


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Last time I will post a rebuttal here regarding the same general thoughts. Look out West. A deep -PNA is NOT going to do it. I don't care if the PV drops under the NAO (which we saw in Dec mind you, and we got the avocado polar overwhelming pattern). Let's jeep an eye on the PNA and hope we can even time a transient  spike at the right time. It can happen but I really think this is the only way we score here regardless what a 240 hour surface  op shows right now verbatim.

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3 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

You post A LOT for a guy "cashing out", Ralph. If you are out, fine. be out. But please stop pooping on every page while declaring you are out. 

Same thing if ppl post "omg look how epic the atlantic side h5 looks" over and over. I'm posting how we need more help than that. I will back the foot off the brake pedal posts, fair enough...I hear you.

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29 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

As we have been discussing ad nauseum we can get the most epic Atlantic look you want to see, but if this year has proven anything it is that without a +PNA we are staring down the barrel of the same loaded "close but no cigar" pattern. Now I'm not saying it can't happen, I'm saying that unless we get the right trend out west we aren't going anywhere with this one. Just my $.02

The Pacific is always the key

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1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Last time I will post a rebuttal here regarding the same general thoughts. Look out West. A deep -PNA is NOT going to do it. I don't care if the PV drops under the NAO (which we saw in Dec mind you, and we got the avocado polar overwhelming pattern). Let's jeep an eye on the PNA and hope we can even time a transient  spike at the right time. It can happen but I really think this is the only way we score here regardless what a 240 hour surface  op shows right now verbatim.

There are all sorts of issues with that period, mostly all a result of the bad pacific. I could go through the list, but I won't. If we are going to get a late win in this shitty winter it is going to have to come in a pattern with plenty of warts. A +PNA may materialize- maybe mid to late month? Or surely by early April. So yeah, you can forget that dream the way things look now lol.

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16 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Speaking of the Pacific. Blizzard warnings in Los Angeles County right now. #WeREALLYsuckatwinter.

Are they at a higher elevation? Sheesh...this winter has to be anomaly category. I mean then we talk about the base you-know-what being overall warmer then we see this mess--and they're one the west coast by the dang Pacific! It's supposed to be global **** not "just warm on the EC", lol

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