CAPE Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 18z GFS depicts a bit less interaction out west with the Pac trough. Western US energy might eject eastward quicker. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Tropospheric NAM = AO 0Z GEFS based AO forecasts for March 6th show that the trend is downward: 2/26 run: -0.1 2/27 run: -0.5 2/28 run: -1.3 3/1 run: -1.5 For March 10th, yesterday's 0Z GEFS had 0. Today's had -0.9. The 12Z EPS has a stronger -AO through most of its run through March 14th and that continues its downward trend since the 0Z 2/27 run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 5 minutes ago, CAPE said: 18z GFS depicts a bit less interaction out west with the Pac trough. Western US energy might eject eastward quicker. yup, exactly... continuing the trends from 12z. block is stronger too 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: 18z GFS depicts a bit less interaction out west with the Pac trough. Western US energy might eject eastward quicker. Eh, still worlds apart from the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Just now, brooklynwx99 said: yup, exactly... continuing the trends from 12z. block is stronger too Baby steps out west. Still huge differences. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJ3 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 26 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: 93 was incredible as far as what it did to the nation. As far as local events go nothing can touch 2016 IMO. I will never live to see 40 inches from a single storm in my life again. No chance. There are a lot of storms 93 can’t touch in the immediate DMV. Started out with some enthusiasm. Then disaster. At least the wrap around snow helped a little. And yes totally agree 2016 for some reason is unfairly ignored. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 GFS still much different vs euro and Canadian with the pac energy. Going to take a few more days for models to start to agree on how that energy comes east. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 We really need the Euro's superior resolution/computing power/diverse array of data assimilation, or whatever the fuck supposedly makes it better, to be right in this case. Not that the GFS is awful, but we don't have a lot of time here. 5 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 2 minutes ago, TJ3 said: There are a lot of storms 93 can’t touch in the immediate DMV. Started out with some enthusiasm. Then disaster. At least the wrap around snow helped a little. And yes totally agree 2016 for some reason is unfairly ignored. I lived in southern Carroll County. The storm did mix with sleet for a little bit, but the storm was awesome. We were out of school for a week when we didn’t get off for a flurry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 1 minute ago, CAPE said: We really need the Euro's superior resolution/computing power/diverse array of data assimilation, or whatever the fuck supposedly makes it better, to be right in this case. Not that the GFS is awful, but we don't have a lot of time here. the relative consistency of the ECMWF / CMC also give me a bit more confidence that they have the right idea. the GFS has been a bit erratic with its handling of the NW US vort 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 there is definitely a trend here to get the vort out faster, though, regardless of whatever weird way the GFS is thinking of doing it verbatim 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: there is definitely a trend here to get the vort out faster, though, regardless of whatever weird way the GFS is thinking of doing it verbatim Different, but not necessarily better. Not crazy about the look at hr 222. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 .I compared wrong hours my bad… just a little different…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Different, but not necessarily better. Not crazy about the look at hr 222.Euro at least has some support with Canadian, JMA, ensembles etc. just the way this winter works the least favorable model ends up always winning. Can we get lucky just one time? . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Just now, Heisy said: Euro at least has some support with Canadian, JMA, ensembles etc. just the way this winter works the least favorable model ends up always winning. Can we get lucky just one time? . I have become a believer in the Ji rule. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 these differences are occurring at like Day 5-6, so this will be resolved over the next couple of days anyway, regardless of the outcome 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: I have become a believer in the Ji rule. I'll put it this way. if the GFS/GEFS was the only model showing a favorable outcome and every other model had what the GFS has now, would you believe the favorable outcome? I absolutely would not. it's a game of odds and they're in our favor right now 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Thanks shitty Pacific. What a way to wreck a perfectly good NAO block. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 WB 18Z GFS compared to 12Z EURO at Day 10… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Just now, brooklynwx99 said: I'll put it this way. if the GFS/GEFS was the only model showing a favorable outcome and every other model had what the GFS has now, would you believe the favorable outcome? I absolutely would not. it's a game of odds and they're in our favor right now You know I always run with the means at range. I'll also go with consensus. Doesn't always work lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lodelwayne01 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 37 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I’d be ok giving up everyone else’s snow Maybe a 30 year storm coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 16 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: there is definitely a trend here to get the vort out faster, though, regardless of whatever weird way the GFS is thinking of doing it verbatim That looks like it wants to close off and go negative and cut to Elko, NV …that would be bad for us I assume 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 9 minutes ago, CAPE said: You know I always run with the means at range. I'll also go with consensus. Doesn't always work lol. this is also what I mean. it looks like the GFS is also just having a hard time with the pattern right now and it breaks everything down WAY too fast like wtf is this? this doesn't even have any waves. just a bunch of smattered crap. compare that with the EPS control, which looks like actual weather 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 20 minutes ago, CAPE said: Thanks shitty Pacific. What a way to wreck a perfectly good NAO block. I don’t think we can blame the pac. It’s far from ideal but there is a trough just south of the Aleutians much of the time and at times the trough gets east of Hawaii. Combined with the block there isn’t much reason there for the trough to get caught in the NW and cut off. When the trough gets east of Hawaii instead of forcing it out it just gets absorbed! Honestly looking at the loop on the Gfs these last couple days it’s as if the subtropical eastern N Amer ridge is more cause than effect. That evolution makes sense if the SER is acting like a mid lat block itself. We don’t factor it that way because during winter that heat source has never been strong enough to bully the mid latitude jet but maybe that equation has changed? If the SER is a cause not an effect it really changes things a lot! Im just speculating here. But the Pac western US wave spacing is absolutely absurd on some of these Gfs runs ETA; to clarify what I mean here, a great pac would obviously still obliterate a SER. But what if the SER is not ONLY an effect but equal parts a driver? Would explain why there is almost no variance lately. We have had some brief periods this winter where the pac forcing was temporarily reversed or in transition and it made little difference to the SER. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 11 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: this is also what I mean. it looks like the GFS is also just having a hard time with the pattern right now and it breaks everything down WAY too fast like wtf is this? this doesn't even have any waves. just a bunch of smattered crap. compare that with the EPS control, which looks like actual weather Lol ya the GFS basically obliterates the whole hemispheric circulation to avoid moving the SER lol. Hence my speculative comment above. It’s probably just wrong. But if it’s not… 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Awesome, looks like GEFS went towards the OP, this winter…. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 GFS v EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 35 minutes ago, CAPE said: Thanks shitty Pacific. What a way to wreck a perfectly good NAO block. Been the same story all winter though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 2 minutes ago, Heisy said: Awesome, looks like GEFS went towards the OP, this winter… . it almost always goes towards the OP, though. it's a bad ensemble 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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