brooklynwx99 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: GFS suite was on an island for this weeks storm for several days too not to say it's absolutely, 100% wrong, but a blind squirrel finds a nut every now and then I'm just leaning on the more consistent, higher scoring majority as of now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Its a Breeze Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: You’re insane and obviously know nothing of the 93 storm. You’re judging a weather event based upon how much snow fell in your yard alone. Granted it wouldn’t have been as awesome had I not gotten nearly 30” of snow, it was an event that has no equal when you consider it covered from Florida to Maine. Do some research. I was there, lol. It was one of the events that deepened my love for meteorology. I know all about it. Not just my backyard, I was thinking regionally, as this is the mid-Atlantic forum. We've had much better storms where the whole region did well, not just the west. Giving up snow for 5 years is insane. Giving up snow for 5 years for a storm that was just good to great, but unspectacular for the majority of the sub forum is....what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 16 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: You’re insane and obviously know nothing of the 93 storm. You’re judging a weather event based upon how much snow fell in your yard alone. Granted it wouldn’t have been as awesome had I not gotten nearly 30” of snow, it was an event that has no equal when you consider it covered from Florida to Maine. Do some research. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Ramjet Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 6 minutes ago, mappy said: meh, not including this winter 3 of the last 5 were right at climo IMBY You are right, just seems like a lot less with no snow winters like this one and 2019. As a matter of fact, I had nothing close to climo last year in northwestern Loudoun county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 41 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: If I got to witness 93 again I’d forfeit snow for 5 years gladly Start the thread!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 38 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I thought that at first glance but if you loop the run and look at the blocked flow over the top…it can’t cut. It’s going to try though and that’s when we get annihilated, when a juiced up bomb tries to cut but can’t! Sure we might mix but that would have been an absolute monster solution had it gone out to day 12. Y’all can save the “it’s 10 days” crap. I can math and read a calendar. Obviously I know this is never going to be 100% correct and it’s just one of a bunch of permutations to this pattern. But this kind of solution is finally supported by the longwave pattern and realistically possible. Doesn’t mean it will happen. I’d bet against it if I had too. But it’s a way better bet in this pattern than at any time all season when we were wasting time on bullshit that had absolutely no chance based on the pattern. This is finally a pattern worth keeping an eye on threats. snowstorms that show up on models in a bad pattern almost always end up in rainstorm. snowstorms that show up on models in a good pattern usually snow for the Southeast or the Northeast and skip the Mid Atlantic 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 43 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: If I got to witness 93 again I’d forfeit snow for 5 years gladly Same here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 1 hour ago, RedSky said: Anything from JB yet with the 93 analog, any moment ALEET ALEET?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 control is pretty darn similiar at Day 10 so if you want to see how that run might've ended up... yes it's a Day 12 snow map. I'm desperate 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 46 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: If I got to witness 93 again I’d forfeit snow for 5 years gladly Lies 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: control is pretty darn similiar at Day 10 so if you want to see how that run might've ended up... yes it's a Day 12 snow map. I'm desperate That’s an ensemble? Yowza Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Just now, BristowWx said: That’s an ensemble? Yowza Nah, just the control. Ensemble snow mean is good for March but not nearly as pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Just now, BristowWx said: That’s an ensemble? Yowza Not a mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: control is pretty darn similiar at Day 10 so if you want to see how that run might've ended up... yes it's a Day 12 snow map. I'm desperate that actually sucks 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 2 minutes ago, Ji said: that actually sucks Honestly, I was gonna say the same thing. Don't get me wrong, I'd be very happy with it, but for what is being advertised...it's just ok. But the starving can't be choosey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 that actually sucks Control always follows the OP to an extent. Idk the science behind it exactly. It’s lower resolution so smooths things out a bit. It probably wouldn’t be as good at picking up CAD etc. Need a met. to explain, just basing this on observation. Not that it matters at all, but I do think the OP would have probably gone inland a bit, but would have def had a lot of WAA snows ahead of the low. We’re 10-12 days out, models still figuring out how that Pac energy will progress east. We have the overall indexes on our side so at this point all we can do is hope. By end of weekend hopefully we have a legit threat to track. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 8 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Honestly, I was gonna say the same thing. Don't get me wrong, I'd be very happy with it, but for what is being advertised...it's just ok. But the starving can't be choosey the OP EURO would of given us 18-30---i dont know what the euro control did--but it looks like a front end dump and then cutter type stuff lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 3 minutes ago, Ji said: the OP EURO would of given us 18-30---i dont know what the euro control did--but it looks like a front end dump and then cutter type stuff lol “Blue Ain’t Your Color” Ji 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fujiwara79 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 22 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: control is pretty darn similiar at Day 10 so if you want to see how that run might've ended up... yes it's a Day 12 snow map. I'm desperate Looks like the storm track for the 1993 Superstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 41 minutes ago, Roger Ramjet said: Well, five years of recent winters is almost nothing so what are you forfeiting. I’ll gladly give up 1998, 2002, 2012, 2020 and 2023 up until now to get another 1993. That’s how that works right? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 23 minutes ago, Ji said: that actually sucks a 9" snowstorm in march sucks! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 1, 2023 Author Share Posted March 1, 2023 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I’ll gladly give up 1998, 2002, 2012, 2020 and 2023 up until now to get another 1993. That’s how that works right? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 1, 2023 Author Share Posted March 1, 2023 19 minutes ago, Ji said: the OP EURO would of given us 18-30---i dont know what the euro control did--but it looks like a front end dump and then cutter type stuff lol Looks like 93, at least the areas from PA south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fujiwara79 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Superstorm 93 was the best storm ever. I know it mixed with sleet in these parts, which ruined it down here. But I lived in southern PA at the time where it was all snow...and I've never seen a storm that ferocious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 What’s the saying? The big ones get sniffed out early. Exact track TBD of course… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 35 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: control is pretty darn similiar at Day 10 so if you want to see how that run might've ended up... yes it's a Day 12 snow map. I'm desperate its minor for day 10 but look at h5… the control is phasing the arctic jet in about 6 hours faster. It’s already phased at 240 while the op is still getting its act together. That makes a huge difference since once it phases it cuts due north from SC coast to PA. 6 hours later and it tracks up the MD coast into NJ which is a big difference here. But the difference between 20”, 6” to rain, and an all rain cutter is noise at this range. The fact that solution is on the table is all that matters. Lastly…for those rooting for a 93 remake keep this in mind, that is playing with fire. About the only scenario that allows a cutter in that flow is a fully phased bomb that buckles the flow. Any other solution is forced under the block. Doesn’t mean we couldn’t get a monster storm. March 58 comes to mind. But a full phase bomb opens the door to an inland track. Of course a non phase opens the door to suppression so pick your poison. Place your bets. Chips all in. 9 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 5 minutes ago, fujiwara79 said: Superstorm 93 was the best storm ever. I know it mixed with sleet in these parts, which ruined it down here. But I lived in southern PA at the time where it was all snow...and I've never seen a storm that ferocious. IDK. Jan of 16 was pretty awesome. That was the most intense snow I have ever seen. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Yeah I don’t want a march 93. Sure I remember getting 10” before the change over, but the sleet/rain ruined that storm for me. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 23 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I’ll gladly give up 1998, 2002, 2012, 2020 and 2023 up until now to get another 1993. That’s how that works right? If you had put 2009-10 in there, I would have immediately banned you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 3 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Yeah I don’t want a march 93. Sure I remember getting 10” before the change over, but the sleet/rain ruined that storm for me. Yup. Don't want another 93 down here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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