brooklynwx99 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: It picked up on more interaction with the western trough/NS energy and the resulting NW track for the March 3-4 storm first. I know, that's probably the one thing that it's gotten right all by itself this year. usually happens once a year or so. still the worst performing model out of all the globals 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 ECMWF holding serve, booting the S/W out of the west. the GFS still remains alone here at 12z 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 30 year anniversary, oof. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Trust tree but can we talk about the incoming HECS on the euro….woof 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Just now, LP08 said: Trust tree but can we talk about the incoming HECS on the euro….woof You mean this? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Maybe digging a little too fast this run, but holy moly. EPS will probably go bonkers this run with an op run like this . 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 We do it every year so,.. March 93 talk can commence 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 if only the euro ran out for a bit longer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Anything from JB yet with the 93 analog, any moment 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 EPS has been trending better and better. stronger -NAO, AK ridging trending more poleward, and a quicker exit of the WC trough. this run looks explosive 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 19 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said: if only the euro ran out for a bit longer and if it went out any longer it would be way worse long range mode heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 1 hour ago, Rvarookie said: I hope y’all get cold ass rain as punishment for rooting for this crap during spring. Sick bastards This. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 1, 2023 Author Share Posted March 1, 2023 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: My only point is beyond 5 days, unless there is strong model consensus, keep expectations in check or prepare to be disappointed again… (I need to heed my own advice..). It is cool that there is some potential in the second to third week of March but it is going to be another 5 days at least before anyone can forecast a big storm with any confidence. From the guy who has made a career of posting 16 day snow maps 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Ahhhh the memories. And to think that for the 93 storm I bought one 6 pack of Raspberry Wheat Ale to share with my father-in-law. ONE!!! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 this is nearly perfect. the EPS is holding serve on a legitimate KU evolution for next weekend 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 1, 2023 Author Share Posted March 1, 2023 If I got to witness 93 again I’d forfeit snow for 5 years gladly 4 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: If I got to witness 93 again I’d forfeit snow for 5 years gladly its hard enough to get snow as it is and you will forfeit 5 years of it for a March 93 redux? you crazy 3 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 47 minutes ago, Heisy said: Maybe digging a little too fast this run, but holy moly. EPS will probably go bonkers this run with an op run like this . I thought that at first glance but if you loop the run and look at the blocked flow over the top…it can’t cut. It’s going to try though and that’s when we get annihilated, when a juiced up bomb tries to cut but can’t! Sure we might mix but that would have been an absolute monster solution had it gone out to day 12. Y’all can save the “it’s 10 days” crap. I can math and read a calendar. Obviously I know this is never going to be 100% correct and it’s just one of a bunch of permutations to this pattern. But this kind of solution is finally supported by the longwave pattern and realistically possible. Doesn’t mean it will happen. I’d bet against it if I had too. But it’s a way better bet in this pattern than at any time all season when we were wasting time on bullshit that had absolutely no chance based on the pattern. This is finally a pattern worth keeping an eye on threats. 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Its a Breeze Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: If I got to witness 93 again I’d forfeit snow for 5 years gladly Taken at face value this is illogical and makes absolutely zero sense. Especially given the fact that we've had multiple storms since (and numerous prior) that have been way better....by far. What are we missing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Yeah the Euro was about to bust it wide open 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 1, 2023 Author Share Posted March 1, 2023 11 minutes ago, mappy said: you crazy That’s a given Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 at this point I wouldn't pay much attention to the GFS/GEFS unless the EPS/GEPS move towards it in a significant way. it's on a complete island right now, and the EPS/GEPS became more favorable, if anything. definitely dug their heels in at 12z while the GEFS has been shuffling about... the GFS OP moved towards them in a big way 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 1, 2023 Author Share Posted March 1, 2023 4 minutes ago, Its a Breeze said: Taken at face value this is illogical and makes absolutely zero sense. Especially given the fact that we've had multiple storms since (and numerous prior) that have been way better....by far. What are we missing? You’re insane and obviously know nothing of the 93 storm. You’re judging a weather event based upon how much snow fell in your yard alone. Granted it wouldn’t have been as awesome had I not gotten nearly 30” of snow, it was an event that has no equal when you consider it covered from Florida to Maine. Do some research. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 The end of that Euro run is simply stunning. And its only 10 days away. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Just now, clskinsfan said: The end of that Euro run is simply stunning. And its only 10 days away. Good thing it's gonna stay just like that for the next 10 days. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 26 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: this is nearly perfect. the EPS is holding serve on a legitimate KU evolution for next weekend The -AO continues to trend in the stronger direction out near that time. I wouldn't be surprised if this continues. Could this be because of the very weak SPV? The 10 mb winds at 60N dipped all of the down to -19 m/s yesterday, indicative of a very weak strat. A strong -AO is a primary effect of a successfully down-welled weak strat onto the troposphere. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 13 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: That’s a given we're all a little crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Ramjet Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 24 minutes ago, mappy said: its hard enough to get snow as it is and you will forfeit 5 years of it for a March 93 redux? you crazy Well, five years of recent winters is almost nothing so what are you forfeiting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 12 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: at this point I wouldn't pay much attention to the GFS/GEFS unless the EPS/GEPS move towards it in a significant way. it's on a complete island right now, and the EPS/GEPS became more favorable, if anything. definitely dug their heels in at 12z while the GEFS has been shuffling about... the GFS OP moved towards them in a big way GFS suite was on an island for this weeks storm for several days too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Just now, Roger Ramjet said: Well, five years of recent winters is almost nothing so what are you forfeiting. meh, not including this winter 3 of the last 5 were right at climo IMBY 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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