brooklynwx99 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 here are the effects of that small change only a day later... seems like a legit shift towards the more favorable pattern evolution 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 1, 2023 Author Share Posted March 1, 2023 I get whiplash reading this thread 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 CMC holding serve with booting the S/W out... this looks very good 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 West coast still looks kinda busy/trough-y through next week. I'm sure the Colorado ski resorts are liking this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard Hunter Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 10 minutes ago, 87storms said: Sounds like you're a blizzard hunter. I'm all for a good snowstorm, but mounds of snow lasting through April is a debatable cost. I am a true Blizzard hunter indeed, and a desperate one. It's been going on five years now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 1, 2023 Author Share Posted March 1, 2023 19 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: here are the effects of that small change only a day later... seems like a legit shift towards the more favorable pattern evolution I am willing to learn how that last pattern is good for our latitude. We don’t get snowstorms on the downward side of a trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 8 minutes ago, Blizzard Hunter said: I am a true Blizzard hunter indeed, and a desperate one. It's been going on five years now. Only a few weeks left of tracking, might as well go all in. Looks like a semi-zonal flow/blocking is our best chance to break the snide. We usually need an El Nino/STJ to get the big ticket storms, but anyone who truly knows what will happen beyond day 10 should probably be upgrading from armchair QB to getting paid to play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I am willing to learn how that last pattern is good for our latitude. We don’t get snowstorms on the downward side of a trough. the 50/50 ULL locks in confluence and keeps storms from cutting. it's probably the most important feature for any 6"+ snowstorm in the MA 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 47 minutes ago, Weather Will said: JB is touting the potential for back to back storms between the 10th-15th so The snow lovers in Vermont will be happy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: the 50/50 ULL locks in confluence and keeps storms from cutting. it's probably the most important feature for any 6"+ snowstorm in the MA The problem is that even in a normal winter, south of the M/D line is touch and go when it comes to a SECS/MECS. This upcoming pattern looks promising for the midwest to PA/northeast, but it's not easy to snow here even in January. I'm definitely in the camp that would like to suppression show up first and bank on the jet being a little further north than advertised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 28 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: CMC holding serve with booting the S/W out... this looks very good It drops the avocado. Cold but not much precip. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: It drops the avocado. Cold but not much precip. I'm cool with that. the ideal pattern progression is there and we get a big, dynamic solution. good run 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: I'm cool with that. the ideal pattern progression is there and we get a big, dynamic solution. good run Signal has been there for that period on the EPS. Maybe it will go back to the big dog look at had the other day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 GEFS is still pretty much the same in the west, which is annoying, but it is really ratcheting up the blocking now, so that's a plus. that C US ridge is also getting squashed. the GEFS is pretty much on its own with this look by Thursday... the GEPS looks like it's going to hold serve from 00z last night 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 GEPS still looks great for next week. absolutely nothing like the GEFS, more so following the EPS 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 20 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: GEPS still looks great for next week. absolutely nothing like the GEFS, more so following the EPS Quite interesting to see those differences in the handling of the western energy. The GFS was on its own for this upcoming weekend event as it shifted north to where we are now before the other models...the others moved toward it slowly but surely hence all those "King GFS" posts....why do you think this period of time is different? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 1, 2023 Author Share Posted March 1, 2023 57 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: the 50/50 ULL locks in confluence and keeps storms from cutting. it's probably the most important feature for any 6"+ snowstorm in the MA But that could also lead us to sheared out storms that’s slide off the coast could it not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: But that could also lead us to sheared out storms that’s slide off the coast could it not? yes, but that's the risk you have to take to avoid cutters. overall it's a very favorable pattern 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 1, 2023 Author Share Posted March 1, 2023 30 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: GEPS still looks great for next week. absolutely nothing like the GEFS, more so following the EPS Now that looks good to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 8 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Quite interesting to see those differences in the handling of the western energy. The GFS was on its own for this upcoming weekend event as it shifted north to where we are now before the other models...the others moved toward it slowly but surely hence all those "King GFS" posts....why do you think this period of time is different? first off, it's because it's been rather inconsistent, it's underdispersive, and it's outnumbered by the other two ENS I'll put it this way... if the GEFS was the only ENS that was showing a KU setup and the GEPS/EPS were slower or less clear, I would absolutely, 100% guarantee that everyone would discount the GEFS. no question in my mind the whole evolution it shows is also bizarre to me, and I would expect something more like the other two ENS, it just makes more sense in my head. the GEFS solution is not impossible, but I would lean more towards the EPS/GEPS considering they hold the majority and are becoming stronger in their signals, if anything. we'll see what the EPS does in a bit 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 56 minutes ago, CAPE said: It drops the avocado. Cold but not much precip. So I jump in for this window and guidance taunts me with this avocado crap?! The atmosphere hates me I'm taking this one personal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said: I'm cool with that. the ideal pattern progression is there and we get a big, dynamic solution. good run Someone said SOLUTION? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Keep expectations in check….Lucy is waiting on the sidelines. Hopefully a consensus by early next week but GFS/ GEFS is King until dethroned. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 At this time of year if the model is not showing blue over my house…the run is a disaster 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 The model King thing is so dumb lol. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 I hope y’all get cold ass rain as punishment for rooting for this crap during spring. Sick bastards 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 1 minute ago, CAPE said: The model King thing is so dumb lol. the GFS usually gets one thing right all year and then flubs as soon as there's an impactful coastal storm. I have seen it so many times it sucked with Monday's system up here anyway so I'm not even sure what people are talking about 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 6 minutes ago, CAPE said: The model King thing is so dumb lol. Cmon, it's obviously the trendy thing to do. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: the GFS usually gets one thing right all year and then flubs as soon as there's an impactful coastal storm. I have seen it so many times it sucked with Monday's system up here anyway so I'm not even sure what people are talking about It picked up on more interaction with the western trough/NS energy and the resulting NW track for the March 3-4 storm first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 My only point is beyond 5 days, unless there is strong model consensus, keep expectations in check or prepare to be disappointed again… (I need to heed my own advice..). It is cool that there is some potential in the second to third week of March but it is going to be another 5 days at least before anyone can forecast a big storm with any confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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