psuhoffman Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 7 minutes ago, Heisy said: Agreed, i think 14-16th period looks fantastic, my Negativity today was more towards this 10-11th range where we saw the euro yesterday blow up an event because it ejected the energy out west faster. Tonight GFS still not pushing energy along. Canadian does but it’s kind of sloppy. GFS still looks solid as we move beyond the 11th… . Gfs is the ultimate kick in the nuts. Suppresses 3 straight waves, the last of which teases the crap out of us but crushed central and southern VA…then miller b’s us when the main energy ejects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Ops started to show more realistic progs given the pattern tonight. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: Gfs is the ultimate kick in the nuts. Suppresses 3 straight waves, the last of which teases the crap out of us but crushed central and southern VA…then miller b’s us when the main energy ejects. Fridays wave did the same thing and in ended up in the upper Midwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 1 hour ago, Heisy said: Agreed, i think 14-16th period looks fantastic, my Negativity today was more towards this 10-11th range where we saw the euro yesterday blow up an event because it ejected the energy out west faster. Tonight GFS still not pushing energy along. Canadian does but it’s kind of sloppy. GFS still looks solid as we move beyond the 11th… . set up looks good now 2 plus weeks out then something shits the bed and it will end up near normal or above normal. it always says cold 2 weeks out then it gets pushed back or it moderates as we get closer to the event. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 00z GFS 10:1 map for this weekends storm.This one isn’t ours but the 10th onward should hopefully be game time with a much a more favorable boundary setup, legit. blocking, and a -EPO in place. Screw it. I’m going to try to be optimistic. It’s our last window of opportunity (a good one at that) and we have quite literally nothing to lose. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 12z EPS had some insanely strong lows off the east coast for the 10th. We may be too far south for that one, but man… a sub 950 low would be something alright. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Plenty of sub 980, multiple 950s, and a 948 mixed in there. Talk about a bomb 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 WB 0Z GEFS….ignoring the EURO for now, still mad at it! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 @$#!?%# 384 hours. Why?? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: @$#!?%# 384 hours. Why?? Cumulative. Nothing to show through Day 10. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 1 hour ago, stormtracker said: @$#!?%# 384 hours. Why?? 6z Gfs hits us with wave 1 day 11 then us setup to hit us again when it ends. Yea it’s in unicorn land. No way it has the details and wave timing right. But it shows how this type of pattern could play out. This time such a result is supported by the longwave pattern drivers and not just some BS artifact of chaos at long leads. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 6z GEFS EPS still has a signal for around the 11th 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Have been cynical wrt LR looks and rightfully so given what we have endured this season wrt LR guidance. However, I am beginning to like the look on the GEFS as we head to day 10-12. I know. Fantasy range. But the look is improving this time and moving up. -NAO signal, 50/50, trof South of AK, PNA ridge developing in response trying to even bridge with the NAO. This could work for March: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Fwiw GEPS now has a +pna 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 53 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: 6z Gfs hits us with wave 1 day 11 then us setup to hit us again when it ends. Yea it’s in unicorn land. No way it has the details and wave timing right. But it shows how this type of pattern could play out. This time such a result is supported by the longwave pattern drivers and not just some BS artifact of chaos at long leads. Forecasts of Mountain torque and angular momentum off the charts per HM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: 6z Gfs hits us with wave 1 day 11 then us setup to hit us again when it ends. Yea it’s in unicorn land. No way it has the details and wave timing right. But it shows how this type of pattern could play out. This time such a result is supported by the longwave pattern drivers and not just some BS artifact of chaos at long leads. Well it’s good to see the models finally reflecting what y’all were getting at. I still remain just gun shy man. Wish i could help it. I’m here for the time period you guys are highlighting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 31 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Have been cynical wrt LR looks and rightfully so given what we have endured this season wrt LR guidance. However, I am beginning to like the look on the GEFS as we head to day 10-12. I know. Fantasy range. But the look is improving this time and moving up. -NAO signal, 50/50, trof South of AK, PNA ridge developing in response trying to even bridge with the NAO. This could work for March: I’m all in for another shot at winter. That’s what we’re here for right!? Why would you give up now? Snow is snow as far as I’m concerned. I don’t care what month it is! As long as these looks continue to improve over the coming days, those who have already gone cliff diving into another cliff will be back (as ghosts). 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 33 minutes ago, frd said: Forecasts of Mountain torque and angular momentum off the charts per HM. Sswe finally doing it's thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 I’m on team “snow is snow no matter the month”. 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 2 minutes ago, Terpeast said: I’m on team “snow is snow no matter the month”. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 13 minutes ago, Terpeast said: I’m on team “snow is snow no matter the month”. 10 minutes ago, stormtracker said: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 50 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Word 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 3 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Have been cynical wrt LR looks and rightfully so given what we have endured this season wrt LR guidance. However, I am beginning to like the look on the GEFS as we head to day 10-12. I know. Fantasy range. But the look is improving this time and moving up. -NAO signal, 50/50, trof South of AK, PNA ridge developing in response trying to even bridge with the NAO. This could work for March: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Hopefully we are saying another line from that movie soon when looking at models. "I have seen shit that'll turn you white!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard Hunter Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 I'b be on bored for something close to a March 1993 superstorm type of deal (Which I know is not going to happen), otherwise bring spring. Given how this winter has gone, it is not surprising that as climatology works less and less in our favor the models are finally showing some good setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Oh wow. Look at this in the LR. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 I thought you guys would be pumping the 300hr panel, it finally shows a vortex/trough moving across our region. I wouldn't expect snow in this pattern at all. The High up top is the only thing really fundamental for a snowstorm, they always trend toward a GOA low. Once that -EPO/west -NAO moves out, it should be a flood of warm air(on the current model). 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 JB is touting the potential for back to back storms between the 10th-15th so 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 @Ralph Wiggum @CAPE really nice trend here with the ULL from the Rex block and the S/W of focus over the last few runs... we've see increased separation between the two features, and 12z is even showing ridging popping up between the two... this would allow for the S/W to get booted E instead of getting trapped W this is what the ECMWF/CMC ENS had, and hopefully it's a sign that they're handling the pattern better 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 52 minutes ago, Blizzard Hunter said: I'b be on bored for something close to a March 1993 superstorm type of deal (Which I know is not going to happen), otherwise bring spring. Given how this winter has gone, it is not surprising that as climatology works less and less in our favor the models are finally showing some good setups. Sounds like you're a blizzard hunter. I'm all for a good snowstorm, but mounds of snow lasting through April is a debatable cost. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts