March Medium/Long Range Discussion

[psuhoffman]

12 minutes ago, snowmagnet said:

I’m very excited about your optimism!  You’ve been right all winter, unfortunately. So there is only one way to go from here! 

Irony is I’ve been optimistic exactly one time all winter. And if it doesn’t snow I’ll have been 100% too optimistic. 

[yoda]

18z GFS would be a severe kick in the ass and a way to end winter lol

[BristowWx]

3 minutes ago, yoda said:

18z GFS would be a severe kick in the ass and a way to end winter lol

Yep sure not seeing much of anything.  Maybe it’s not happening 

[psuhoffman]

12 minutes ago, yoda said:

18z GFS would be a severe kick in the ass and a way to end winter lol

It has THE storm. The whole thing evolves about how I’d expect the big storm just comes together slightly too far north. That’s certainly possible but the difference between that result and a big hit here is noise at that range. 

[brooklynwx99]

the main difference between the GEFS and EPS / GEPS is that the GEFS keeps the trough over the WC and doesn't eject it eastward. this is a possibility, but I wouldn't worry about it too much, as the GFS OP is doing that and the GEFS is underdispersive. it's just a strange looking pattern evolution... you would expect it to progress, not just cut off and sit there

however, this is worth noting as a way that positive effects from the blocking pattern can be delayed. this wouldn't ruin the pattern or anything, we would just have to wait longer and not have the same distinct KU potential that the EPS and GEPS present around the 10th. if that S/W ejects, it's immediately off to the races

[Heisy]

the main difference between the GEFS and EPS / GEPS is that the GEFS keeps the trough over the WC and doesn't eject it eastward. this is a possibility, but I wouldn't worry about it too much, as the GFS OP is doing that and the GEFS is underdispersive. it's just a strange looking pattern evolution... you would expect it to progress, not just cut off and sit there
however, this is worth noting as a way that positive effects from the blocking pattern can be delayed. this wouldn't ruin the pattern or anything, we would just have to wait longer and not have the same distinct KU potential that the EPS and GEPS present around the 10th. if that S/W ejects, it's immediately off to the races

Right now I’m not buying the potential around the 10-11th after today’s runs. You want to sell me 15-17th, that has more legs because the cold def looks to be established by then, but that’s even more in fantasy land. Just seeing too much of a push towards burying the energy out west and delaying any transfer. I’d imagine we’ll see EPS go that direction tonight. Hope I’m wrong :/


18z snow mean is horrid through 360 hours, but that’s to be expected since the OP didn’t really manage anything until the big one at the very end of the run

[BristowWx]

3 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Right now I’m not buying the potential around the 10-11th after today’s runs. You want to sell me 15-17th, that has more legs because the cold def looks to be established by then, but that’s even more in fantasy land. Just seeing too much of a push towards burying the energy out west and delaying any transfer. I’d imagine we’ll see EPS go that direction tonight. Hope I’m wrong :/


.

I don’t think I have ever been a more miserable bastard than I have this winter…every day is kick in the twig and berries.  Just toss the last shovel of dirt on the pine box and end it for fucks sake.  So you think 15-17th?  

[IronTy]

2 hours ago, SnowGolfBro said:

In other words, Did we give up when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?  Hell No!

[BristowWx]

6 minutes ago, IronTy said:

He means the French…jeez read a book SnowGolfBro

[Steve25]

When the GFS shows no snow accumulation 10 days out: 

"It's over, look to the next window of opportunity" 

When the GFS shows good snow accumulation 10 days out: 

"It's 10 days away, we all know that's not going to be right." 

[Ralph Wiggum]

28 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

So you think 15-17th?  

March or April? Asking for a friend.

[BristowWx]

3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

March or April? Asking for a friend.

December

[Weather Will]

2 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

December

2030

[CAPE]

50 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the main difference between the GEFS and EPS / GEPS is that the GEFS keeps the trough over the WC and doesn't eject it eastward. this is a possibility, but I wouldn't worry about it too much, as the GFS OP is doing that and the GEFS is underdispersive. it's just a strange looking pattern evolution... you would expect it to progress, not just cut off and sit there

however, this is worth noting as a way that positive effects from the blocking pattern can be delayed. this wouldn't ruin the pattern or anything, we would just have to wait longer and not have the same distinct KU potential that the EPS and GEPS present around the 10th. if that S/W ejects, it's immediately off to the races

There are subtle differences between the models wrt the wave interactions in the Pacific- specifically the character of the deepening trough north of Hawaii and differences in the EPAC ridge as it shifts northward from its initial position with a positively tilted orientation. On the GEFS the trough north of Hawaii captures the western US trough as the Pac ridge stretches/ retrogrades more westward towards the Aleutians. This inhibits the western US trough from progressing eastward. On the EPS there is a bit of a ridge east of the Hawaii trough that links with the Pac ridge building more northward over AK. This allows the western US trough to escape and progress eastward. Who knows which one is more correct.

 

 

 

 

[CAPE]

Our hopes and dreams are completely dependent on seemingly random atmospheric wave interactions and timing. Total chaos.

Not a very fruitful hobby when the one desired outcome has such a low probability of occurring in this area lol.

[Maestrobjwa]

Good article on the current enso predictions, and also has some great "ENSO for dummies" info for us laymen 

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/el-nino-event-forecast-2023-2024-global-weather-impact-winter-united-states-canada-europe-fa/

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Strongest -NAO yet, this is a +500dm block now on the 18z GFS ensembles. 

Pacific trended more +PNA today in the MR. I like the idea of that WC trough as it moves east. 

[BristowWx]

7 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Strongest -NAO yet, this is a +500dm block now on the 18z GFS ensembles. 

How much does it take to suppress the SER?  You’d think that look would yield a deep Eastern trough…yet the flow looks zonal…is that the Pac?  There is t even a WAR.  It’s baffling.  

[frd]

26 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Our hopes and dreams are completely dependent on seemingly random atmospheric wave interactions and timing. Total chaos.

Not a very fruitful hobby when the one desired outcome has such a low probability of occurring in this area lol.

It is sad.

A hobby directly tied to AGW, and this hobby's ROI has been declining in recent years if you are a snow lover. Hopefully, we score something before the never ending humidty and heat move in.     

[Ralph Wiggum]

18z gefs trends from last 4 runs (day 10 to day 9). More of the usual...building SER as lead time diminishes, linkup attempt between NAO (which is displacing farther S last 4 runs) and new SER signal. There is separation out between the Hawaiian trof and the NW Coast trof which @CAPE noted earlier was a good thing out in the PAC. But it is not encouraging imho to see the repeated seasonal Atlantic side trends on the ens mean as we get under 10 days. Sigh.

[Rvarookie]

We still doing this?

[brooklynwx99]

8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

18z gefs trends from last 4 runs (day 10 to day 9). More of the usual...building SER as lead time diminishes, linkup attempt between NAO (which is displacing farther S last 4 runs) and new SER signal. There is separation out between the Hawaiian trof and the NW Coast trof which @CAPE noted earlier was a good thing out in the PAC. But it is not encouraging imho to see the repeated seasonal Atlantic side trends on the ens mean as we get under 10 days. Sigh.

that’s not a “real” ridge. not a SE ridge at all with the 50/50 in place. it’s actually well below average temperature wise because of the 50/50, and the entire CONUS goes into the freezer as the WC trough gets kicked. that’s going to happen, it’s just a matter of it being quicker like the EPS/GEPS or slower like the GEFS

not a cause for worry IMO

[Grothar of Herndon]

 I am still all in with Chuck! 

[CAPE]

26 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

How much does it take to suppress the SER?  You’d think that look would yield a deep Eastern trough…yet the flow looks zonal…is that the Pac?  There is t even a WAR.  It’s baffling.  

In that panel the location/amplitude/orientation of the NPac ridge is 'unfavorable', placing a trough out west. A trough out west requires there to be a ridge downstream, but in this case it isn't really a SER. A favorable NA(block) can suppress/flatten an eastern ridge to a degree. Because the trough is a bit further NW in this case, the ridge is shifted a bit more westward, and in conjunction the NA block is inhibiting the ridge from extending to the east coast.

[psuhoffman]

24 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

18z gefs trends from last 4 runs (day 10 to day 9). More of the usual...building SER as lead time diminishes, linkup attempt between NAO (which is displacing farther S last 4 runs) and new SER signal. There is separation out between the Hawaiian trof and the NW Coast trof which @CAPE noted earlier was a good thing out in the PAC. But it is not encouraging imho to see the repeated seasonal Atlantic side trends on the ens mean as we get under 10 days. Sigh.

That’s likely just timing differences getting resolved which will focus the negative and increase the heights around it as the correct wave spacing gets resolved.  There is going to be ridging in front of that initial trough. Whether that can become a threat will depend on the strength of the 50/50 and if it ejects and doesn’t stall for days. I like the wave AFTER that one more anyways. I said around the 15th was likely when the best pattern intersects with a degrading climo to create the best opportunity.  But I could see the 11-12th if that wave ejects immediately. 
 

Either way this is a good test case. The pac isn’t awful there.  It’s mediocre. If that blocking can’t suppress the SER in March with a neutral pac… I dunno man. Probably means we can’t snow anymore without a favorable pac. Problem is like 50% of all our snow historically came with either a hostile or mediocre pac.  That’s a big problem if we can only snow when the pac is in a perfect -epo +pna alignment. That just doesn’t happen that often.  

[psuhoffman]

26 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

that’s not a “real” ridge. not a SE ridge at all with the 50/50 in place. it’s actually well below average temperature wise because of the 50/50, and the entire CONUS goes into the freezer as the WC trough gets kicked. that’s going to happen, it’s just a matter of it being quicker like the EPS/GEPS or slower like the GEFS

not a cause for worry IMO

Quicker is kinda important given the time of year and our rapidly degrading climo 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

That first wave will moisten up, and like brooklynwx posted, it's a below average temperature pattern while several waves move through. :)

[Stormchaserchuck1]

40 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

18z gefs trends from last 4 runs (day 10 to day 9). More of the usual...building SER as lead time diminishes, linkup attempt between NAO (which is displacing farther S last 4 runs) and new SER signal. There is separation out between the Hawaiian trof and the NW Coast trof which @CAPE noted earlier was a good thing out in the PAC. 

Really lost that Aleutian ridge to the north of Hawaii trough at 18z. The models will adjust. It's a below average temperature pattern. We aren't going to hold all three of those conditions: +PNA, -NAO, SE ridge. Only if the Aleutian island High strengthens back. 

[jayyy]

Really lost that Aleutian ridge to the north of Hawaii trough at 18z. The models will adjust. It's a below average temperature pattern. We aren't going to hold all three of those conditions: +PNA, -NAO, SE ridge. Only if the Aleutian island High strengthens back. 

New and improved chuck is the man!


.

[Heisy]

That’s likely just timing differences getting resolved which will focus the negative and increase the heights around it as the correct wave spacing gets resolved.  There is going to be ridging in front of that initial trough. Whether that can become a threat will depend on the strength of the 50/50 and if it ejects and doesn’t stall for days. I like the wave AFTER that one more anyways. I said around the 15th was likely when the best pattern intersects with a degrading climo to create the best opportunity.  But I could see the 11-12th if that wave ejects immediately. 
 
Either way this is a good test case. The pac isn’t awful there.  It’s mediocre. If that blocking can’t suppress the SER in March with a neutral pac… I dunno man. Probably means we can’t snow anymore without a favorable pac. Problem is like 50% of all our snow historically came with either a hostile or mediocre pac.  That’s a big problem if we can only snow when the pac is in a perfect -epo +pna alignment. That just doesn’t happen that often.  

Agreed, i think 14-16th period looks fantastic, my
Negativity today was more towards this 10-11th range where we saw the euro yesterday blow up an event because it ejected the energy out west faster.

Tonight GFS still not pushing energy along. Canadian does but it’s kind of sloppy. GFS still looks solid as we move beyond the 11th…




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