Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 15 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: I expect the EPS to hold, but we'll see in an hour or so Like I expected, we're always trending toward a GOA low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 I mean it is way out there, but if we are going to correct north, this is where the lows have to start. This is all speculation and I see the kicker out west and know it is going out to sea.. It just needs that north adjustment. Sorry for the clutter showing La La land snow. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 1 hour ago, stormtracker said: Well, we need one for any potential storm. Cutter or snow for us The full lat ridge NAO/GOM link that everyone says will get beat down is preventing the pattern evolution. In order to get this to work we need the energy to push thru. All season 10 day props showed hope with mirages of sw's surviving their way thru said ridging. We shall see....staying cautiously cautious for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I do worry about that ridge. But..if we get a crazy retrograding block, string phase 8 mjo which shifts the pac ridge northeast and links with the NAO block…and it still can’t win v that ridge… well you tell me? Then what? What exactly are we looking for? Can’t say “it’s the pac” anymore because the pac forcing is about to become pretty neutral and combined with the blocking certainly not something you can use to blame and excuse that kind of ridge! So yes I am concerned the ridge wins. But I’d it does that’s the conclusion of my book right there! Does the MJO in 8 really help? It always seems to me that the MJO hurts us when it’s in an unfavorable phase but never seems to make much difference when in 8-1-2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 aleet aleet on the ECMWF 1 1 5 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 I am not sure where things would end up Euro after 240..but I was liking the road for sure. It was interesting if nothing else. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 Not sure I see it that way you guys do. I see the same BS with models dumping tons of energy in southwest that never seems to want to come east. Promotes way too much ridging ahead of it. Like I mentioned this morning. We went from 12z showing this pac energy around day 7-10 headed east much faster on yesterdays euro, to this….we’re also seeing agreement on it from the Canadian and gfs. May have to wait till 15th-20th for a storm threat if this happens…which is fine and still fits the progression date, but we’re getting closer and closer to April at that point . 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 38 minutes ago, blizzardmeiser said: Does the MJO in 8 really help? It always seems to me that the MJO hurts us when it’s in an unfavorable phase but never seems to make much difference when in 8-1-2. Weak or brief waves into favorable phases against a hostile base state have little impact. A high amplitude wave, on the other hand typically can have more impact and can indicate a change in the base state. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 4 minutes ago, Heisy said: Not sure I see it that way you guys do. I see the same BS with models dumping tons of energy in southwest that never seems to want to come east. Promotes way too much ridging ahead of it. Like I mentioned this morning. We went from 12z showing this pac energy around day 7-10 headed east much faster on yesterdays euro, to this….we’re also seeing agreement on it from the Canadian and gfs. May have to wait till 15th or so for a storm threat if this happens… . You are talking about the op runs Follow the ensembles 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 That's a stout HP (1048) showing up near the end of 12z run with a juicy storm in the SW eventually moving east bringing snow to Myrtle Beach. I got a feeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 11 minutes ago, Heisy said: Not sure I see it that way you guys do. I see the same BS with models dumping tons of energy in southwest that never seems to want to come east. Promotes way too much ridging ahead of it. Like I mentioned this morning. We went from 12z showing this pac energy around day 7-10 headed east much faster on yesterdays euro, to this….we’re also seeing agreement on it from the Canadian and gfs. May have to wait till 15th or so for a storm threat if this happens… . So only 15 days away! 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Its a Breeze Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 3 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: I got a feeling. *hooo hooo* That tonight it's going to disappear That tonight it's going to disappear 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 EPS looks amazing. what's the issue here? it even made positive changes compared to 00z 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 14 minutes ago, Heisy said: Not sure I see it that way you guys do. I see the same BS with models dumping tons of energy in southwest that never seems to want to come east. Promotes way too much ridging ahead of it. Like I mentioned this morning. We went from 12z showing this pac energy around day 7-10 headed east much faster on yesterdays euro, to this….we’re also seeing agreement on it from the Canadian and gfs. May have to wait till 15th or so for a storm threat if this happens… . The ridge there is more a weakness between waves and not the tropical death ridge that kills all winter that dares stand before it. Look at the temps within that ridge. Actually there are negative anomalies there in some places. Now if the energy gets stuck and just sits for days in the SW like the op euro shows that does us no favors but that’s not been how we fail all year. Storms eject they just cut way to out NW over the heat ridge. Also I’d argue the longwave pattern in the eastern pacific and western Canada argues against that energy getting stuck. It should eject. That could fail but I don’t see it as the same fail. We can fail even in a good pattern. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 So eps doesn’t bury the energy as much as OP, that’s a plus….. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 i get all the skepticism and pessimism, but how can this not get you excited? this is a perfect synoptic progression on the EPS. crazy 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 It's a really bad model though. It might just be running with the likelihood of a scenario. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 55 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: aleet aleet on the ECMWF NAO continues retrograding farther W and the GOM ridge is becoming more stout and moving closer to the SER position. Two ways to see this map. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 2 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: It's a really bad model though. It might just be running with the likelihood of a scenario. it's the largest ensemble that's run on the consistently best performing model lmao 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 Just now, brooklynwx99 said: it's the largest ensemble that's run on the consistently best performing model lmao They couldn't take the ECMWF's domination. Had to even it out with ensembles. They seem like 0.40 correlated with initial conditions that day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 30 minutes ago, MJO812 said: You are talking about the op runs Follow the ensembles Is this like follow the yellow brick road? Snowing in poppy fields would be a dreamy way to round out the winter....I'm all in. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 27 minutes ago, stormtracker said: So only 15 days away! Ides of March Bombastic Fantastic pre St Patty's Storm of the Decade! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 27 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: EPS looks amazing. what's the issue here? it even made positive changes compared to 00z Isn't the NAO retrograding too quickly tho? I mean I know we need it to relax but this looks like it takes a one way ticket to the Aleutian ridge bridge no? Eta: taking the same steps other windows have. Keep moving the NAO west and pumping the SER and, well, you know where any storm is headed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 19 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: i get all the skepticism and pessimism, but how can this not get you excited? this is a perfect synoptic progression on the EPS. crazy I'm just playing devils advocate. Seeing too much KU and HECS talk. OK, I agree, synoptically it looks pretty darn good. But I'm tempering expectations. I'll ease off the cynicism. Let this one happen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: I'm just playing devils advocate. Seeing too much KU and HECS talk. OK, I agree, synoptically it looks pretty darn good. But I'm tempering expectations. I'll ease off the cynicism. Let this one happen. trust me, I don't believe anything like that will happen, it's far too early to say anything like that. however, it would be foolish to look at that and not acknowledge the potential there... it's certainly high end. could it go up in flames? sure, any pattern can. but the one advertised has a much lower chance of failing and a much higher chance of producing a large wintry storm 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 Will mentioned March 2-3 1960 as an analog... I wouldn't mind that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 What is going on. For the last 3 months I’ve been taking abuse for being a deb because I wasn’t interested in day 10 fantasy and was saying nope sorry that’s not gonna happen. Now I’m optimistic we might have a chance and those same people are being huge debs. WTF. 3 17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 25 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: i get all the skepticism and pessimism, but how can this not get you excited? this is a perfect synoptic progression on the EPS. crazy You're probably one of my fav posters here, although you're a foreigner! But we accept you. You're the only Brooklyn poster welcomed and like here.....but I mean haven't we seen the perfect maps 10 days away all those other times? This isn't at all a criticism of you...but man, 99% of us are gun shy. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: What is going on. For the last 3 months I’ve been taking abuse for being a deb because I wasn’t interested in day 10 fantasy and was saying nope sorry that’s not gonna happen. Now I’m optimistic we might have a chance and those same people are being huge debs. WTF. It's because all of the optimism was used up on those other shit threats. People have run out. And it's no reflection on you or others who are doing long range outlooks. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: You're probably one of my fav posters here, although you're a foreigner! But we accept you. You're the only Brooklyn poster welcomed and like here.....but I mean haven't we seen the perfect maps 10 days away all those other times? This isn't at all a criticism of you...but man, 99% of us are gun shy. See that trough developing south of AK helping to shift the Aleutian ridge northeast into AK and Canada. That’s new. All winter I was unenthusiastic because guidance kept underestimating the downstream impacts of the same pacific forcing. That part of the equation is finally different now. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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