Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 This is the Pacific pattern change 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 2 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: This is the Pacific pattern change thats fast...wish it happened that fast in real life 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 54 minutes ago, Ji said: we actually havent had a real heartbreak this winter. you remember those winter where we track storms for 10 days non stop....and we make it to day 2...and we get a slight shift which takes us from 4-8 to 1 inch or less....those to me are much worse than losing a threat at 5 days out. God has been merciful on us in that regard this winter This is a great point. If people are locking themselves in for storms 7+ days out, the heartbreak is not on the models, it's on you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 27 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: This is the Pacific pattern change Going to get a seizure 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 What do you guys think of this? 3 areas of low pressure in the west going into a healthy -NAO? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 For whatever reason, this map looks wild to me. The SER will not die. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 7 minutes ago, LP08 said: For whatever reason, this map looks wild to me. The SER will not die. it gets flattened on the ENS as the S/W in the west gets booted into the Plains. it will pop at first, though 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: it gets flattened on the ENS as the S/W in the west gets booted into the Plains. it will pop at first, though does seem to get squished in later frame...234...compared to 6z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: does seem to get squished in later frame...234...compared to 6z yeah, the 06z GEFS illustrates this well 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 There's a lot of moisture in the STJ 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 15 minutes ago, LP08 said: For whatever reason, this map looks wild to me. The SER will not die. And projections for its death have been wrong all winter. I think that redonkulous HL blocking probably will happen, but I’d sell on the SE ridge getting beat down for more than a couple days until it’s inside D5-7. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: And projections for its death have been wrong all winter. I think that redonkulous HL blocking probably will happen, but I’d sell on the SE ridge getting beat down for more than a couple days until it’s inside D5-7. Upper latitudes will probably adjust. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 28, 2023 Author Share Posted February 28, 2023 1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: This is the Pacific pattern change Can you speed that up? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 28, 2023 Author Share Posted February 28, 2023 The SER gets flattened all the time by the ensembles at long range. And then in reality at game time it isn’t. Everything gets flattened on an ensemble mean at long range. I feel like people are being intentionally oblivious to the obvious. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 5 hours ago, CAPE said: I believe this is the actual 'Chuck' window. Beautiful look at h5 and cold. 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Can you speed that up? I'll slow it down 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 Not one shortwave on the GFS/CMC through D10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 6 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Not one shortwave on the GFS/CMC through D10 Is that bad? That seems bad. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 28, 2023 Author Share Posted February 28, 2023 7 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Not one shortwave on the GFS/CMC through D10 Good. No cutters and their accompanying wind/rain/freeze your ass off for a day front to blow through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 28, 2023 Author Share Posted February 28, 2023 I will say that sooner or later one of these cutters will probable barrel into a high parked over NE bad at least we will get a slopfest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Good. No cutters and their accompanying wind/rain/freeze your ass off for a day front to blow through. Well, we need one for any potential storm. Cutter or snow for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 4 hours ago, CAPE said: Yes, at this point we all need to be more discreet about any discrete threats depicted on the models. continuous threats are better imho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 4 hours ago, CAPE said: Yes, at this point we all need to be more discreet about any discrete threats depicted on the models. Weenie discretion is advised Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 Listen folks. Lol. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 the meme game in this sub is strong 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 3 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said: Just like how this wasn't a head fake? Always 10 days away I am hopeful for the first time all year. And yes it’s sucks it has to come at the tail end of snow climo but it is what it is. But here is why I think think time could be different. 1) March wavelengths produce different outcomes. The central pacific ridge feature isn’t as much a problem with a shorter wavelength longwave configuration. 2) more favorable tropical forcing than we’ve had all season 3) a true major SSWE that coupled with the TPV The effects of these 3 can be seen on the guidance and it’s not the same head fake as before. The pacific isn’t going to get great, but the ridge gets displaced NE some and a mid latitude trough undercuts it in the central pac. That’s a less hostile configuration than a full latitude ridge through the Aleutians! Still not great, but workable if other things are good which they are. The retrograding block links up with the pacific ridge completely which leaves no weakness for systems to cut in between which has been an issue. Mid latitude systems will be forced to slide east under the blocking across the top. All that doesn’t guarantee we get snow but I think this time we have a legit chance unlike all the other fake long range threats. Those were a false flag product of the guidance continually trying to change the result of the same forcing. That was just bunk. This time the equation has actually changed some. 8 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 GFS and CMC ENS are maintaining the same high-end pattern progression around the 10th of March as the S/W over the WC ejects and the -NAO decays over N central Canada. there's even signs of ridging into the SW US I expect the EPS to hold, but we'll see in an hour or so 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I am hopeful for the first time all year. And yes it’s sucks it has to come at the tail end of snow climo but it is what it is. But here is why I think think time could be different. 1) March wavelengths produce different outcomes. The central pacific ridge feature isn’t as much a problem with a shorter wavelength longwave configuration. 2) more favorable tropical forcing than we’ve had all season 3) a true major SSWE that coupled with the TPV The effects of these 3 can be seen on the guidance and it’s not the same head fake as before. The pacific isn’t going to get great, but the ridge gets displaced NE some and a mid latitude trough undercuts it in the central pac. That’s a less hostile configuration than a full latitude ridge through the Aleutians! Still not great, but workable if other things are good which they are. The retrograding block links up with the pacific ridge completely which leaves no weakness for systems to cut in between which has been an issue. Mid latitude systems will be forced to slide east under the blocking across the top. All that doesn’t guarantee we get snow but I think this time we have a legit chance unlike all the other fake long range threats. Those were a false flag product of the guidance continually trying to change the result of the same forcing. That was just bunk. This time the equation has actually changed some. do shorter wavelengths affect the Atlantic teleconnections? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 2 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said: do shorter wavelengths affect the Atlantic teleconnections? They make the Atlantic more important as it’s easier to back up and buckle the progression upstream with blocking. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: And projections for its death have been wrong all winter. I think that redonkulous HL blocking probably will happen, but I’d sell on the SE ridge getting beat down for more than a couple days until it’s inside D5-7. I do worry about that ridge. But..if we get a crazy retrograding block, string phase 8 mjo which shifts the pac ridge northeast and links with the NAO block…and it still can’t win v that ridge… well you tell me? Then what? What exactly are we looking for? Can’t say “it’s the pac” anymore because the pac forcing is about to become pretty neutral and combined with the blocking certainly not something you can use to blame and excuse that kind of ridge! So yes I am concerned the ridge wins. But I’d it does that’s the conclusion of my book right there! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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