Ravens94 Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: CMC has the block but still manages to plow a weak low into Erie. Pretty sure we have seen how this story unfolds. December threats with the block still turned into cutters. Skeptical at best for now. It's still quite wintry for us, sleet, zr...no rain, soo... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Just now, stormtracker said: It's still quite wintry for us, sleet, zr...no rain, soo... We take. See u @ 130pm and HH... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 @stormtracker unfortunately that other map was counting a lot of sleet and ice as snow. But it was still a big event before the flip. This is closer to what really would fall if that was correct. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: But the WAR. Counters any -NAO. True for a clean “non-west” track to keep it off the coast. But gives a fighting chance to have some semblance of a high pressure not skidaddling away and getting at least some snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: March 2001 vibes, right @psuhoffman?? I doubt guidance would tease us as bad inside day 5 like that anymore. The extreme south bias on the GFS is gone, it's pretty good with the general track of large synoptic features inside 120 hours now. I was pretty young and inexperienced then also...but looking back on it I probably would have seen the warning signs if that setup played out again. Leading it it was very warm and we were relying on a perfect track and a bombing system to dynamically cool us to get that snowstorm. The fact that a lot of the guidance showed that, now I would still find that troubling and feel unsure of that kind of outcome even at short range. Relying on needing everything to go absolutely perfectly is living dangerously. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: We take. See u @ 130pm and HH... Might be out or late. Lunch/gym Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I doubt guidance would tease us as bad inside day 5 like that anymore. The extreme south bias on the GFS is gone, it's pretty good with the general track of large synoptic features inside 120 hours now. I was pretty young and inexperienced then also...but looking back on it I probably would have seen the warning signs if that setup played out again. Leading it it was very warm and we were relying on a perfect track and a bombing system to dynamically cool us to get that snowstorm. The fact that a lot of the guidance showed that, now I would still find that troubling and feel unsure of that kind of outcome even at short range. Relying on needing everything to go absolutely perfectly is living dangerously. I thought I remember a post you made about 2 or 3 weeks ago suggesting this March and 2001 were comparable. Thus why I asked. I could be mistaken however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @stormtracker unfortunately that other map was counting a lot of sleet and ice as snow. But it was still a big event before the flip. This is closer to what really would fall if that was correct. 10 minutes ago, stormtracker said: IF this happens, probably more accurate since a lot of sleet is in there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 8 minutes ago, Ravens94 said: Supposed to leave for Florida Saturday morning. This will happen . I am supposed to be out of town that weekend but everything is refundable, if we were actually going to get that type of storm I would cancel in a heartbeat. I actually make sure any plans I make during the winter are fully refundable so I have that option "just in case". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 11 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: We take. See u @ 130pm and HH... we take where? ... its been a bit since i've asked this very important question Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I thought I remember a post you made about 2 or 3 weeks ago suggesting this March and 2001 were comparable. Thus why I asked. I could be mistaken however. I was trolling... I believe at the time what I said was "Maybe if we are really lucky and everything goes perfectly we can get a great late season block like March 2001 or March 2013". But sure obviously there are similarities, both 3rd year Nina's, both had early and late season blocking. 2013 was also similar in that it was a neutral after a prolonged nina and in many ways behaved like a nina and also had late season blocking. But no 2 storms are exactly alike. I don't fear March 2001 as others do. Give me that setup 100 times and we would get a lot of snow 60 or 70 of them. Same with December 2010 or March 2013. Just because those specific examples of a perfect H5 pass with a NAO block didn't work doesn't mean that setup wasnt good. The setup was fine, but some details didn't go our way in each of those cases but those details will be different every time. The boundary layer won't be exactly as warm as 2013 every time. The convection might not set up the same way. March 2001 and Dec 2010 were nearly identical to January 1996 at H5 but both had details go wrong to make the result very different. You got to play with fire to get fireworks...but sometimes you just get burned! 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 12 minutes ago, stormtracker said: For those that obsess about how fast our snow melts... getting like 6" of snow and 4" of sleet is actually better than 16" of snow...because it takes forever to melt sleet. Back in March 2017 I got like 5" of snow and 4" of sleet and it took several very warm days to melt it because of how dense the pack was. I remember in 2003 driving back from Penn State places further south that had more sleet mixed in with the snow still had snowcover a week after the storm long after the powdery 20-30" in PA had melted away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 GFS is slowly getting nice and toasty after next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I was trolling... I believe at the time what I said was "Maybe if we are really lucky and everything goes perfectly we can get a great late season block like March 2001 or March 2013". But sure obviously there are similarities, both 3rd year Nina's, both had early and late season blocking. 2013 was also similar in that it was a neutral after a prolonged nina and in many ways behaved like a nina and also had late season blocking. But no 2 storms are exactly alike. I don't fear March 2001 as others do. Give me that setup 100 times and we would get a lot of snow 60 or 70 of them. Same with December 2010 or March 2013. Just because those specific examples of a perfect H5 pass with a NAO block didn't work doesn't mean that setup wasnt good. The setup was fine, but some details didn't go our way in each of those cases but those details will be different every time. The boundary layer won't be exactly as warm as 2013 every time. The convection might not set up the same way. March 2001 and Dec 2010 were nearly identical to January 1996 at H5 but both had details go wrong to make the result very different. You got to play with fire to get fireworks...but sometimes you just get burned! NYC metro peeps could say the same about Feb 5 2010. give us that setup and we're getting 12-18", but we got cirrus either way, what a 12z GFS run. even the CMC was nice. let's see if we can keep that block and 50/50 on the ensembles for a bit. if, so it could be legit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 35 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Nobody believes this. Or at least I hope not. Of course not. It's way underdone. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 22, 2023 Author Share Posted February 22, 2023 4 minutes ago, Ravens94 said: GFS is slowly getting nice and toasty after next weekend We should worry about this because the gfs is money at 300+ hours. Good observation 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 18 minutes ago, Ravens94 said: GFS is slowly getting nice and toasty after next weekend I'm confused...you just posted a trend gif of one specific hour of an op run at nearly two weeks away which shows only the latest run being appreciably warmer in the South than the previous three. Temps are honestly pretty steady in our area, if that's even worth anything. Are you expecting to actually glean something from this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 22, 2023 Author Share Posted February 22, 2023 15 minutes ago, mattie g said: I'm confused...you just posted a trend gif of one specific hour of an op run at nearly two weeks away which shows only the latest run being appreciably warmer in the South than the previous three. Temps are honestly pretty steady in our area, if that's even worth anything. Lol yeah, that last map rocketed my temperature up 3 degrees from the first map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Its a Breeze Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 15 minutes ago, mattie g said: I'm confused...you just posted a trend gif of one specific hour of an op run at nearly two weeks away which shows only the latest run being appreciably warmer in the South than the previous three. Temps are honestly pretty steady in our area, if that's even worth anything. Only day 10 storms that show up for one run per day are allowed! They should know that by now.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 17 minutes ago, mattie g said: I'm confused...you just posted a trend gif of one specific hour of an op run at nearly two weeks away which shows only the latest run being appreciably warmer in the South than the previous three. Temps are honestly pretty steady in our area, if that's even worth anything. Are you expecting to actually glean something from this? i think you're reading into it way too much. I think he was just saying that GFS is showing warm temps creeping further north on each model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 4 minutes ago, mappy said: i think you're reading into it way too much. I think he was just saying that GFS is showing warm temps creeping further north on each model run. But that's a snapshot of one specific point in time nearly two weeks away on an op run. Run it for 12z, March 5 and you'll get a different result. There's no useful information to gather from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 1 minute ago, mattie g said: But that's a snapshot of one specific point in time nearly two weeks away on an op run. Run it for 12z, March 5 and you'll get a different result. There's no useful information to gather from it. Oh there is useful info to get from that post. Very useful. Maybe not so much from the post itself. If you catch my drift. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 14 minutes ago, mattie g said: But that's a snapshot of one specific point in time nearly two weeks away on an op run. Run it for 12z, March 5 and you'll get a different result. There's no useful information to gather from it. fair. not sure its worth really caring too much 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 The majority of the 12z GEFS members have LP tracking to our NW, with some of those suggesting secondary development or some sort of trailing wave. A few members just have a low tracking to our south. The signal for frozen for our region in the March 3-5 window is about the same as the 6z run. 1-2 inches east of the western Highlands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 The h5 look is somewhat improved on the 12z GEFS for that period, with a broader trough/the eastern ridge is flatter and more offshore. More conducive to a low track over or just to our SE vs. cutting west. This might be as good as it gets this winter. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dabuckeyes Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 53 minutes ago, mattie g said: I'm confused...you just posted a trend gif of one specific hour of an op run at nearly two weeks away which shows only the latest run being appreciably warmer in the South than the previous three. Temps are honestly pretty steady in our area, if that's even worth anything. Are you expecting to actually glean something from this? Guys, he’s going to Florida… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Don't look at the 12z EURO if Boston snowfalls rub you the wrong way. They get slammed on the 28th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 25 minutes ago, Dabuckeyes said: Guys, he’s going to Florida… S.E. Forum perhaps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 22, 2023 Author Share Posted February 22, 2023 29 minutes ago, CAPE said: The h5 look is somewhat improved on the 12z GEFS for that period, with a broader trough/the eastern ridge is flatter and more offshore. More conducive to a low track over or just to our SE vs. cutting west. This might be as good as it gets this winter. It will be interesting to compare that map with the run 3 days from now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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