March Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Ji]

So you guys aren’t going to be giving this new pattern a chance even though it’s different from the current pattern?

[jayyy]

I’ve noticed nobody has brought up the famous 2 words we see every year. So I’ll be the first. “SUN ANGLE”…. Lol, I say this as I start hearing the pouring rain hitting my roof.

The Sun angle is the same in New York and they’re getting 2 feet between now and Friday. It’s nonsense. Same with the “it’s too warm leading in” notion.

I’ve seen it snow in April (higher “sun angle” than now) and 1 day after it was 60 degrees. Both of those late season excuses are untrue.

It isn’t harder to snow in late march because of the sun angle. It’s harder to snow in late march because it’s generally less cold and we’re out of peak climo.

Longer days could have an effect (more hours of sunlight) but not sun angle. If it’s 30-33 and snowing hard enough, it’ll accumulate, no matter when it happens.

[mappy]

It melts faster tho

[Ji]

It melts faster tho

How is that sleet map working out?

[snowmagnet]

19 minutes ago, Ji said:

So you guys aren’t going to be giving this new pattern a chance even though it’s different from the current pattern?

Chuck is all in, and PSU is interested.  That’s quite a change from the past 3 months. 

[jayyy]

Chuck is all in, and PSU is interested.  That’s quite a change from the past 3 months. 

The pattern is completely different. -NAO -EPO a 50/50 low and a squashed SER. We have a much better shot at snow between now and march 20th than we have had all winter. People are just jaded. Hard to blame them.


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[BristowWx]

19 minutes ago, jayyy said:

The pattern is completely different. -NAO -EPO a 50/50 low and a squashed SER. We have a much better shot at snow between now and march 20th than we have had all winter. People are just jaded. Hard to blame them.


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Why do you say now?  I mean the next event is a likely cutter/redeveloper in the NE…that takes us around March 6th.  Nothing even brewing until 11th or so.  If roughly March 20th is the end we really have about 7 days to score.  Hard to get too excited.  

[AtlanticWx]

34 minutes ago, jayyy said:

The pattern is completely different. -NAO -EPO a 50/50 low and a squashed SER. We have a much better shot at snow between now and march 20th than we have had all winter. People are just jaded. Hard to blame them.


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hard to go off of persistence when we have a different pattern on our hands. honestly, there are some p stark similarities to march 2018 which i know scares a lot of people here but it's something we should take happily (a -NAO, post SSW, 50/50 low and troughing off the EC, troughing off the west coast and central ridging as a result)

i'd be worried about suppression in this pattern though given the low heights and the nature of a ridge pretty east but we'll see, definitely gonna take this look tho

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

So you guys aren’t going to be giving this new pattern a chance even though it’s different from the current pattern?

Correct. No

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 hour ago, jayyy said:

The Sun angle is the same in New York and they’re getting 2 feet between now and Friday. It’s nonsense. Same with the “it’s too warm leading in” notion.

I’ve seen it snow in April (higher “sun angle” than now) and 1 day after it was 60 degrees. Both of those late season excuses are untrue.

It isn’t harder to snow in late march because of the sun angle. It’s harder to snow in late march because it’s generally less cold and we’re out of peak climo.

Longer days could have an effect (more hours of sunlight) but not sun angle. If it’s 30-33 and snowing hard enough, it’ll accumulate, no matter when it happens.

Depends upon one’s perspective I suppose. I find snow falling while I’m listening to it melt more depressing than it not snowing at all.

[SnowGolfBro]

23 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Why do you say now?  I mean the next event is a likely cutter/redeveloper in the NE…that takes us around March 6th.  Nothing even brewing until 11th or so.  If roughly March 20th is the end we really have about 7 days to score.  Hard to get too excited.  

But at the same time it’s easy to get excited. 3 weeks to realistically score and then that’s it. It’s Spring. I’m looking for a Cantore Thunder Snow HECS or bust. Then we can start tracking severe lol

[WinterWxLuvr]

Since 0z last night the ICON has taken a low from Norfolk to St Louis.

Think I’ll pass on placing faith in that model.

[Ji]

Since 0z last night the ICON has taken a low from Norfolk to St Louis.
Think I’ll pass on placing faith in that model.

Lol. Models need to be beefed up to handle Nina's

Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk

[Interstate]

21 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Since 0z last night the ICON has taken a low from Norfolk to St Louis.

Think I’ll pass on placing faith in that model.

And we are worried about a pattern change 10 days when models can’t even get 5 days right. What does the GFS say. That is the only model we should be looking at. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

I think Manitoba is still in the cards for this low

[cbmclean]

2 hours ago, jayyy said:

The Sun angle is the same in New York and they’re getting 2 feet between now and Friday. It’s nonsense. Same with the “it’s too warm leading in” notion.

I’ve seen it snow in April (higher “sun angle” than now) and 1 day after it was 60 degrees. Both of those late season excuses are untrue.

It isn’t harder to snow in late march because of the sun angle. It’s harder to snow in late march because it’s generally less cold and we’re out of peak climo.

Longer days could have an effect (more hours of sunlight) but not sun angle. If it’s 30-33 and snowing hard enough, it’ll accumulate, no matter when it happens.

Sun angle is lower (more oblique) the further north you go.  Not a huge difference between you guys and central NY, but not zero difference either.

[jayyy]

Sun angle is lower (more oblique) the further north you go.  Not a huge difference between you guys and central NY, but not zero difference either.

The difference is negligible though. Freezing temps and rates will win every time. Melting rate is really the only issue


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[jayyy]

Sun angle is lower (more oblique) the further north you go.  Not a huge difference between you guys and central NY, but not zero difference either.

Headed up there this weekend. Pretty pumped


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[brooklynwx99]

holy shit

[Ruin]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

holy shit

what?

[Ralph Wiggum]

51 minutes ago, Ruin said:

what?

Different up top or larger SD features but the mid and low lats generally look the same...trof building on West Coast, ridge flexing near the GOM. I realize it is after this period ppl are honking on, but the progression is still 10 days+ away. I suppose the fact it's March and this pattern could work with smaller wavelengths has folks excited for at least a chance. I see the rationale. But realistically and based on track record we've been duped into believing these day 10+ epic potential pattern changes a few times this season. If we get to March 5 or so and the progression still looks favorable headed out past March 8 I cam begin to think this could be different. I hold out hope for mid month, but remain cautiously skeptical for now.

[jayyy]

Different up top or larger SD features but the mid and low lats generally look the same...trof building on West Coast, ridge flexing near the GOM. I realize it is after this period ppl are honking on, but the progression is still 10 days+ away. I suppose the fact it's March and this pattern could work with smaller wavelengths has folks excited for at least a chance. I see the rationale. But realistically and based on track record we've been duped into believing these day 10+ epic potential pattern changes a few times this season. If we get to March 5 or so and the progression still looks favorable headed out past March 8 I cam begin to think this could be different. I hold out hope for mid month, but remain cautiously skeptical for now.

We haven’t had a legit block, 50/50, and suppressed SER all season though. The -NAO is looking like a lock. Should get a -EPO for a time too to supply cold air. A very active jet will drag the boundary south along the way.

I get why people are apprehensive. This season has been god awful, but we aren’t going to fail simply because we failed before. The pattern is completely different and we finally have the mechanisms needed to overcome the PAC (which will be less hostile, especially with the decaying niña) instead of having to rely on ridiculously lucky timing.

As PSU said, we have a legit reason to be excited this time around. The prior 10 day teases were Hail Marys where you could see how we fail from a mile away. Mirages, so to speak. The EPS and GEFS, while somewhat different in how they get there, are both honking. This is pretty much the first HECS signal we’ve had in years.

I get the fear of getting burned. I feel it too. But I do think this the best chance we’ve had all winter, by a long shot. Go big or go home. Rooting for an absolute monster that brings us near climo in one shot.

[jayyy]

Depends upon one’s perspective I suppose. I find snow falling while I’m listening to it melt more depressing than it not snowing at all.

But that’s not a foregone conclusion because of the date on the calendar. Our area has seen plenty of mid to late march snowstorms. And not just 3” storms which melt immediately, but legit 12”+ storms. Especially northern areas like ours.


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[Ralph Wiggum]

54 minutes ago, jayyy said:

We haven’t had a legit block, 50/50, and suppressed SER all season though. The -NAO is looking like a lock. Should get a -EPO for a time too to supply cold air. 

Pretty sure we had a similar pattern in part of Dec but the pattern got overwhelmed with cold. I could be wrong tho.

[CAPE]

Shouldn't be any cutters with this look. Our primary fail mode risk would shift to that thing Ralph fears. There is still an indication of a coastal low around the 11th, but just offshore this run.

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Pretty sure we had a similar pattern in part of Dec but the pattern got overwhelmed with cold. I could be wrong tho.

There was a -NAO but It wasn't really a true block as it lacked the lower heights in the 50-50 region. There was a TPV underneath for a time, but it shifted west and dumped into the western trough. Then the whole avocado came south and we had the big cutter around Christmas with Arctic cold behind. Another missed opportunity that can largely attributed to the state of the shitty Pacific, and the pattern broke down a few days later. We have been stuck in this garbage pattern since.

[Interstate]

2 hours ago, jayyy said:

We haven’t had a legit block, 50/50, and suppressed SER all season though. The -NAO is looking like a lock. Should get a -EPO for a time too to supply cold air. A very active jet will drag the boundary south along the way.

I get why people are apprehensive. This season has been god awful, but we aren’t going to fail simply because we failed before. The pattern is completely different and we finally have the mechanisms needed to overcome the PAC (which will be less hostile, especially with the decaying niña) instead of having to rely on ridiculously lucky timing.

As PSU said, we have a legit reason to be excited this time around. The prior 10 day teases were Hail Marys where you could see how we fail from a mile away. Mirages, so to speak. The EPS and GEFS, while somewhat different in how they get there, are both honking. This is pretty much the first HECS signal we’ve had in years.

I get the fear of getting burned. I feel it too. But I do think this the best chance we’ve had all winter, by a long shot. Go big or go home. Rooting for an absolute monster that brings us near climo in one shot.

Yes and the pattern was supposed to be different other times of the year at 10 days out. But, it just morphed into the same damn pattern as we got closer and the models shifted. Could this be different, sure. But, time is not on our side now. 

[frd]

16 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Shouldn't be any cutters with this look. Our primary fail mode risk would shift to that thing Ralph fears. There is still an indication of a coastal low around the 11th, but just offshore this run.

What is the Ralph mode is that mean suppression?

[CAPE]

I believe this is the actual 'Chuck' window. Beautiful look at h5 and cold.

[frd]

12 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I believe this is the actual 'Chuck' window. Beautiful look at h5 and cold.

I wonder how the temperatures compare to the March  2018 blocking episode. HM had commented that the progression of the blocking this March compared to 2018 is very similar the only difference is the air temperatures in the source regions of North America are not as cold,however,  maybe that has changed in the last couple days.