Cobalt Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 And the cycle repeats itself.. pretty nice signal though. Textbook 50/50 showing on on the panels @CAPE showed too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 5 minutes ago, CAPE said: We're all gonna do it again. You know it. This is the one! I feel like Charlie Brown getting ready to kick the football from Lucy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 2 minutes ago, frd said: I feel like Charlie Brown getting ready to kick the football from Lucy The difference is, assuming its real, the persistently awful Pacific reshuffles and finally the ridge morphs into something that could be helpful instead of a hindrance for snow in the MA. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 13 minutes ago, Cobalt said: And the cycle repeats itself.. pretty nice signal though. Textbook 50/50 showing on on the panels @CAPE showed too. That is nice. The precip panel I posted above ends up like this. Here we go! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 I am putting in all my chips (what chips are left from this awful no snow winter) on Chuck's 9-11 March storm. It is our last hope... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Beautiful look, but who’s going to say it with me, “Only 10 da….” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 winter 2022-23. The record of the most day 10 storms that didn't happen. 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 the EPS (and GEPS to a lesser extent) is basically a perfect pattern progression. every synoptic feature is here for a major storm somewhere on the EC around the 10th: highly anomalous, decaying -NAO over the Davis Strait anomalous -EPO/-WPO to deliver Arctic air into the E US highly anomalous, semi-permanent 50/50 ULL signal for a vigorous S/W ejecting out of the Rockies as the PNA trends neutral... likely ending up slightly positive due to the Pacific Rex block I want to see increased ENS support for this progression, mainly from the GEFS, but this is about as high-end of a pattern progression as you can get. compare this to the 7-day preloading composite for NYC's 18"+ storms... there are any of the same pattern features, namely the decaying west-based block and deep 50/50 ULL. this composite applies for you guys, as well. the same pattern is needed for NYC south to see its biggest storms I don't mean to honk this early, but this is the best looking pattern progression since Feb 2021, which was the last classic MA blizzard (unfortunately scraped you guys to the N). many of the same features show up there, as well. it's not a coincidence 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 I think someone hacks the Euro model every 10 days to keep everyone paying for their model subscriptions… The definition of insanity is that you repeat the same thing again and again but keep expecting a different result…. Ok…one last 10-20 day period to go…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 1 hour ago, CAPE said: As advertised on the EPS the March 4th fail storm at least helps jack up the Block. Textbook -NAO dipole with closed h5 contours. plus look at the lower heights under the Aleutians pressing the ridge into AK. If that longwave configuration there can't overcome the SER were in big big big trouble because that is about as good as its going to ever get in a -PDO. The pac isnt good but its mediocre there...and mediocre is about as good as we can hope for during a hostile PDO phase. Meanwhile we have a damn perfect in every way block. That HAS to work or its a really bad sign. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 This is it. I am finally seeing something I like. I am putting my chips all in, this is the one. 15 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 39 minutes ago, CAPE said: That is nice. The precip panel I posted above ends up like this. Here we go! Thermals are farther south than previous LR looks. Don’t know if it means much until the nao block establishes itself and the aleutian ridge breaks down a bit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Just now, psuhoffman said: This is it. I am finally seeing something I like. I am putting my chips all in, this is the one. I’m gonna need a line of credit…no chips left 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 @Stormchaserchuck1should start the thread immediately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Serious for a moment why do we think the EPS is right and the GEFS is wrong? It does not look nearly as good to my non expert eye…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 5 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Serious for a moment why do we think the EPS is right and the GEFS is wrong? It does not look nearly as good to my non expert eye…. Because SNOW 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 22 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Serious for a moment why do we think the EPS is right and the GEFS is wrong? It does not look nearly as good to my non expert eye…. I think the gefs is rebounding the TPV too quickly. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 On 2/21/2023 at 11:38 PM, Ji said: This storm was 12-16 inches a few days ago heading south and east towards Hatteras Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk always turns into a stupid lake cutter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fujiwara79 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 If we don't cash in during this window, then even ChatGPT can't predict what's going to happen in the New Base State. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 pretty awesome longwave pattern but the questions is if we can get something during that timeframe now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 awesome signal ~10-11 days out 3 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: This is it. I am finally seeing something I like. I am putting my chips all in, this is the one. You have pockets Aces against someone with 7/3 off suit. The flop is 7-7-3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 As advertised on the EPS the March 4th fail storm at least helps jack up the Block. Textbook -NAO dipole with closed h5 contours.March 10-15th is the timeframe I’m eyeing for our potential biggie. If we can’t score there, I’m not sure we score at all. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 9 minutes ago, Interstate said: You have pockets Aces against someone with 7/3 off suit. The flop is 7-7-3 Odds favor aces dropping next. All in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: plus look at the lower heights under the Aleutians pressing the ridge into AK. If that longwave configuration there can't overcome the SER were in big big big trouble because that is about as good as its going to ever get in a -PDO. The pac isnt good but its mediocre there...and mediocre is about as good as we can hope for during a hostile PDO phase. Meanwhile we have a damn perfect in every way block. That HAS to work or its a really bad sign. Could be cold and dry as a promising wave gets crushed by an overwhelming 50-50 on steroids, followed by a warm up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 19 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said: awesome signal ~10-11 days out Less awesome than that D6 signal we had 36hrs ago but I digress… 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Less awesome than that D6 signal we had 36hrs ago but I digress… true but 3" of snow is 11 days out is a pretty remarkable siganl 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 12 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Less awesome than that D6 signal we had 36hrs ago but I digress… I only had to click previous run handful of times to see where we were just few days ago…it’s a depressing progression Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 18z gfs went south and east lol 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 1 minute ago, Ji said: 18z gfs went south and east lol It did? Must have been a very slight change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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