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March Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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1 hour ago, paulythegun said:

Good thing it's March. Shorter

Yeah shorter wavelengths are big because otherwise that's just a woosh, fast flow, out to sea, suppressed, or squashed pattern. I love this look in March though. And (nerd voice) EXTRAPOLATING, there's your big storm circled, hour 390 or so

1055492165_index(1).thumb.jpg.0093af4d2460f336f9cc9d1230a4adf4.jpg

 

So 16 days away. We got this.

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5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Albany likely isn’t far enough. I’d say northern NY or Northern VT. This is where the snow really is if you don’t use the clown maps that include ice as snow. 
2941E6FD-7267-40FB-A8D1-05E2547F9DB8.thumb.png.546f06c6691f6e9606130269b621bbba.png

Tonight into tomorrow is actually the closer chase 

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New York City area is supposed to get 4-8 inches tonight.

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12 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

That SER is showing more and more, little by little each day on these spaghetti plots....I've been specifically following that feature because that has been our nemesis all year. I'm not saying one way or the other what I think just yet....just watching from a distance.

Warm Gulf and Atlantic Waters Strike Again.  Good luck driving a trough into the heat dome.

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2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

@CAPE ... I'm pretty sure we have seen this before this winter. Disturbance at LR plowing thru the SER and the op says yep, that's possible. Your thoughts (besides that its an op at range and dont waste my time)?

384hr looks horrible. Blasted +AO. I knew my 2012 analog/similarities wouldn't just fall off the radar. 

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On 2/25/2023 at 3:49 PM, AtlanticWx said:

interesting how the same camps snow-wise for the 28th storm are applicable for the 4th storm. for example euro & cmc are both colder and south for the 28th storm in comparison to gfs. i imagine we'll have to wait a few days to see how that storm plays out so we understand how the next storm plays out

We already know how it's gonna play out. Whoever is paying for model projections past 5 days, (and I suspect it's everyone), is a waste of our money.

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