psuhoffman Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Just now, CAPE said: My wag is that the NAO would do what we want it to do (like March 2018) if the Pacific was 'workable' instead of downright hostile. The persistent placement and orientation of that PAC ridge since early Jan is god awful as it keeps the PNA significantly negative and the trough location is such that the boundary is almost always well to our west. Typically there is enough variation so there are periods where the PNA/EPO are more conducive for a favorable storm track. March 2018 was just before the latest PDO flip. Most of Winter 2018 the PDO was still positive, it was neutral in March. The pac was slightly negative but not crap like its likely to be much of the time the next 30 years now that we are clearly in a -PDO cycle. Yes we will get some fluke lucky years where the PDO is positive even during this -PDO cycle. But that will be very rare. Probably only 1-2 times a decade. And some of those will still be ruined by other factors, like if one times up with a la nina or a positive AO for example. 2018 was a positive PDO for example and not a great winter because it coincided with a +AO and a Nina. SO...if 80% of the time we are going to have an extremely hostile pacific over the next 30 years...and some of the other 20% will get ruined by not timing the pac up with other factors...we are in trouble if a -NAO cannot offset an extremely hostile pac anymore because that is how we got the majority of our snow during the last -PDO. We snowed with a downright god awful pac all the time during that era, because we had to, the pac was putrid most of the time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: As we await the 12z runs for shits and giggles, out of the following, how do we fail with any upcoming storms? Too much blocking, suppressed Despite blocking, cutter Cutter Great track, warm Pushed back to....Day 10 The Answer is: All of the above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 1 hour ago, jayyy said: A perfect summation of the winter thus far on the NWS warnings map ... why not throw a blizzard warning in the LA suburbs in there for good measure Just for fun - point/click from some of those mountains north of LA: Friday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 28. Very windy, with a south wind 45 to 50 mph, with gusts as high as 75 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 36 to 42 inches possible. Friday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 21. Windy. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 16 to 22 inches possible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Its a Breeze Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 13 minutes ago, stormtracker said: As we await the 12z runs for shits and giggles, out of the following, how do we fail with any upcoming storms? Too much blocking, suppressed Despite blocking, cutter Cutter Great track, warm Pushed back to....Day 10 F - there are no storms... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 34 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @Ji you asked about the PDO... unfortunately we are only about 5 years into this current -PDO. The last -PDO lasted for 35 years. This is something I've hinted at a couple times, but its depressing... but what if the "snowy" period we've been waiting for here actually was the 2000 to 2020 period and it simply wasn't that snowy here because the climate was already degrading we just didn't notice as much because of the +PDO we were in. But places not too far north of us were getting absolutely blasted with snow during that period while we were only about average. What if that really was the very snowy cycle we were due for and we simply didn't take advantage of it because things were already getting warmer. And now we are in another "down cycle" and its god awful instead of just bad. ETA: this does not have to be a AGW debate btw. Whether it's warmer because of a normal cycle that has nothing to do with AGW or not is irrelevant. We can discuss changes in our snow climo without having to debate AGW. If true, this would be crushing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 15 minutes ago, osfan24 said: If true, this would be crushing. To be clear I am not sure of this...its just a fear of mine. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Snow breaks out at 213 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 This is where I'd post Jaws if this was under 180 hours 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 It's a nuke before the flip. Snow before the flip is quite heavy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Flips to rain at 237, precip is quite heavy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Back to snow or near snow at 246 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Snow at 249, pulling away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Light snow 252. If this was all snow, this forum would collapse 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 20-30" across the area, most to the N and West Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 4 4 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Nice threat at day, umm,.......10 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: 20-30" across the area, most to the N and West Why the fuck not, lets do this. This shit has to end sometime. You still got the bus? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Nice threat at day, umm,.......10 Starts a bit before that, day 9. Woot 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Um…. Ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Just now, psuhoffman said: Why the fuck not, lets do this. This shit has to end sometime. You still got the bus? If it's there at 12z tomorrow, I might kick the tires. This time may be different. We have some blocking 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Just now, Siberian-Snowcover-Myth said: 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Um…. Ok. Nobody believes this. Or at least I hope not. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 WxBell ratios half this but beggars can’t be choosers and I’m the beggiest of the beggars Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 March 2001 vibes, right @psuhoffman?? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 The “look” looks pretty legit to me. Only 9 days away but with a -NAO on steroids. Who knows. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: If it's there at 12z tomorrow, I might kick the tires. This time may be different. We have some blocking CMC has the block but still manages to plow a weak low into Erie. Pretty sure we have seen how this story unfolds. December threats with the block still turned into cutters. Skeptical at best for now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: WxBell ratios half this but beggars can’t be choosers and I’m the beggiest of the beggars IF this happens, probably more accurate since a lot of sleet is in there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 1 minute ago, LP08 said: The “look” looks pretty legit to me. Only 9 days away but with a -NAO on steroids. Who knows. But the WAR. Counters any -NAO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Supposed to leave for Florida Saturday morning. This will happen . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 2 minutes ago, LP08 said: The “look” looks pretty legit to me. Only 9 days away but with a -NAO on steroids. Who knows. But can we overcome the WAR? Seasonal persistence and "Base State"(LOL) say no, or at best, thread the needle... EDIT: Ninja'd by Ralph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: March 2001 vibes, right @psuhoffman?? Somewhere John Bolaris is chuckling 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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