psuhoffman Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I’ve never seen the euro control be correct. Unless it was one of those times when virtually every member was a bomb Inside 120 hours the control mirrors the op in a lower res version most of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I don't know....you could also look at this as if we've been in a negative phase overall since 2000 give or take. In the grand scheme, 90 years is a pretty small sample size wrt a decadal oscillation, or even smaller sample size as you are suggesting a tri-decadal oscillation. That would only provide roughly 3 measurement periods since 1930. On what dataset is this chart based? It says “sum of may-sept” so if I understand this correctly, it only covers the pdo sst index during the summer, but not winter or the full year. And why do they do it that way? Seems pretty misleading to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 23 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I did this before, it favors +PNA next.. for 4 years \ 55-56 middle, 21-23 middle 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I don't know....you could also look at this as if we've been in a negative phase overall since 2000 give or take. In the grand scheme, 90 years is a pretty small sample size wrt a decadal oscillation, or even smaller sample size as you are suggesting a tri-decadal oscillation. That would only provide roughly 3 measurement periods since 1930. note that is summer pdo I am using^^ not intentionally cherry picking I promise Here this is better I think. Again, I'm not sure we can assume based on this that we are going to be stuck in a negative pdo rut for the next 30 years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I don't know....you could also look at this as if we've been in a negative phase overall since 2000 give or take. In the grand scheme, 90 years is a pretty small sample size wrt a decadal oscillation, or even smaller sample size as you are suggesting a tri-decadal oscillation. That would only provide roughly 3 measurement periods since 1930. You’re right. There is some debate here. But why does that chart use only May to Sep? The pdo during winter has way more impact on what we care about lol. My interpretation of the data was there seems to be more variability during a +pdo than a -pdo. This was true during the last +pdo also but the base state was more positive then so the negatives were more neutral. But look at the lack of variance from the late 40s to the mid 70s. But it’s possible I’m wrong. I hope I am. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: On what dataset is this chart based? It says “sum of may-sept” so if I understand this correctly, it only covers the pdo sst index during the summer, but not winter or the full year. And why do they do it that way? Seems pretty misleading to me. I noted that....it is regards to summer fisheries which is something I chart so I had that bookmarked. Thanks for noting. I posted a better graph following that post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 But that meso band that gets us isn’t a feature we can’t rely on at this range. The NW trend if the storm actually continued. Sorry but Imo it was a worse run in every way except the clown snow map. Totally agree with you. I understand what’s going on. I saw the eps. But like I said, given the trend to a cutter our only chance at seeing any wintry precipitation in this set up would be something on the front end imo. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Here this is better I think. Again, I'm not sure we can assume based on this that we are going to be stuck in a negative pdo rut for the next 30 years. Ok this is better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Also note that this winter and last has near-record negative pdo. Such a deeply negative pdo can’t last forever, at some point it got to become less negative or near neutral. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Sparse Pacific data. Cmon, I know you've read the weenie handbook before. Remember? System goes to hell 5-6 days out then trends back better at 3 day leads. Not this year! And I feel like when we lost them, they were south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 ICON trended back south FWIW. Also an EPS member has a 961mb low over S IL and a GEFS member with a 965mb low in a similar spot also FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 ICON looks like it'll be colder. weaker vort and significantly lower heights downstream due to more confluence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: ICON looks like it'll be colder. weaker vort and significantly lower heights downstream due to more confluence Icons a big hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 nice. big shift south here. hopefully this starts 00z off right 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 much more confluence. it's the most important thing in this setup, and models are going to have fits with it, as per usual. might be one of the hardest things to forecast at range due to the proximity of the TPV this looks great with the potent 500mb low running into strong confluence. would result in heavy precip 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 If the GFS looked anything like this I’d shit a brick, though my guess is the gfs will have the low over Chicago lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Just cause the models caved to the gfs dosent mean the gfs won…nobody has won anything yet. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Go to bed yall. 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 26 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: If the GFS looked anything like this I’d shit a brick, though my guess is the gfs will have the low over Chicago lol. You'll have the smoothest shits of your life tonight. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Gfs is like ya how about a 970s low in Missouri Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 the biggest difference between the ICON and GFS is that the ICON breaks a piece of vorticity from the trough and sends it east while the GFS phases it into the trough. which one is correct? who the hell knows, but they are both possible at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 CMC is more like the ICON than the GFS so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Just now, brooklynwx99 said: CMC is more like the ICON than the GFS so far Yeah, watching it out of the corner of my eye. I'll holler if it's something good..not sure how much faster I'll see it before you..prob not much 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 9 minutes ago, stormtracker said: You'll have the smoothest shits of your life tonight. The ex lax took care of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 WEll what I can say is the CMC has that pressed look and it's not nearly norther as the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 cmc looks further southj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Cmc appears more south than its 12z so farSent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 CMC is actually stronger with the confluence. looks like the GFS is on an island so far 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 CMC has CAD building in at 120 with the storm trying to attack from the SW. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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