March Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Scraff]

I’ve missed all the festivities today. Too busy watching the Caps implode like our winter. LOLz. Good news though. I’ve been tailgating (and will continue) for the HH GFS. Can’t wait to see the next dumpster fire! LFG!! I want to see a cutter all the way up back to Minneapolis at this rate. 

[TSSN+]

I ain’t over till.. oh wait never mind. 

[WesternFringe]

23 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

I ain’t over till.. oh wait never mind. 

We have one more window mid-month after the 3/4 hail mary, and after that I am done tracking winter weather and rooting for 70s and working my greenhouse 

[Ruin]

So my local news weather is suggesting ill be mid 60s fri?

[WesternFringe]

3 minutes ago, Ruin said:

So my local news weather is suggesting ill be mid 60s fri?

If you read LWX’s discussion, they said they had roughly half of guidance showing 30s and wintry weather and the other half showing 70s, so they split the difference and said 40s/50s.  I suspect your local news station either did the same or agrees with the trend of a NW passing system that brings in warm air from the south.

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Very true...and I know you typically aren't a deb, though at times quite snarky this winter.  Which I totally get, given how utterly frustrating it has been.  I don't think anyone with any sense of reason expected a "great" winter this year by any means.  But I really don't think anyone, even the most pessimistic, thought it would be this devoid of anything.  Like essentially wall-to-wall.  The anti 2013-14 so to speak!  We've had one 0.5" snow early morning on February 1 (where I'm at, anyhow) that was gone before noon...well, OK, there was like 15 min. of some flurries at the start of that Arctic blast over Christmas weekend and a bit of snow TV yesterday.  And it's not just the paucity of snow, it's also just how extremely warm it's been (other than most of December being a bit below normal, enhanced by Christmas weekend).  When you have a +7 temperature departure for January and February (just looking at DCA for reference, but pretty much the same most everywhere here), you're really hard pressed to get anything.  Not like we've been cold and dry or anything like that.

So assuming we don't really get anything the rest of this season, offhand, what would you rank this winter in terms of futility or near-shutout?  Say, compared to 2001-02, 2011-12, or 2019-20 for instance?  In terms of warmth and lack of snow?

This is similar to 2020 imo. Worse than those other years unless we pull a late save in March. 

I don’t think I change my style it’s just when it’s really bad my bluntness gets on peoples nerves if they are trying to hold onto hope. This same thing happened in Dec 2019 when I made that “winters over” post around Xmas and some got upset and tried arguing but the thing was I never actually said “it’s over” I simply posted the pattern and showed how every historical comp ended up horrible. They weren’t really fighting with me they were fighting history because they didn’t like what was the clear inference from the data.  
 

I will note for the record that both in 2020 and this year at times I took a period off and it was no better.  The same people who were engaging with me just started fighting with someone else.  The only thing that will make things better when it’s this bad is either snow or when most finally call mercy and surrender to fate usually sometime in late February  

 

[southmdwatcher]

Severe storms for the at least parts of the region instead of the chase for snow. Sorry but that is what the models are yelling. Hope we get the mid to late March Hail Mary snow event.

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, Cobalt said:

 

The 4th instance of a massive EPO tank so far this cold season. 1st was mid November, 2nd was mid December, 3rd was late January, and the 4th is now taking place in early March, so a return period of 30-45 days or so. Interestingly, these events have had less of a correlation w/ persistent cold in the East as the winter has gone on. Highlights the importance of the PNA, these events don't matter all too much if the west coast trough wants to dig into Baja. 

The orientation of the EPO ridge matters. That amped positively tilted ridge is going to bury a trough out west. I think that is a Nina/TNH tendency. Maybe PSU has some thoughts. Either way, until I see that Aleutian ridge die off and the PNA head towards positive, I doubt we will do any better towards mid month. The  -PNA and SER are still there in the LR, then way out there we see the oft promised change, then it fades and never materializes. That h5 ens map WW posted above is just more of the same.

[87storms]

Man the intense sunshine is awesome for my depression.   Who gives a fuck about snow?   I'm pumped for spring.  

There’s definitely been more sunshine overall than last year. I think one thing that makes this La Niña so futile isn’t just the temps, but that it’s been relatively dry. (I haven’t confirmed via stats, but it seems that way.) We had one winter a few years ago that was generally mild, but had a lot of precip which provided more chances overall.

Now what would be kinda funny is if the hh gfs trends south.

[Scraff]

Come on GooFuS!!

[psuhoffman]

46 minutes ago, WesternFringe said:

I know how to read them, but okay, fair point, so multiply them by .25- still missing LOTS of snow.  There have been many, many times this winter I have been in the 80%+ probability zone for more than an inch and the 50% to 90% probability zone for more than 3 inches.  I have 1.5” of snow this winter with another 1-2” of sleet.  They never verify this winter, even when showing high probabilities. They have been egregiously useless this winter wrt snowfall, full stop.

This is just my opinion, but I’ve found they’re not nearly as misleading if you factor in probability and take a mean of multiple runs. Since usually we’re looking at events for long leads with the ensemble I think it’s best to take an average of say 2 days of runs for any one discreet threat or period.  What I’ve noted is sometimes some have a tendency to over weight the snowy runs and forget the non. If a couple runs are snowy and a couple are not you can either say “the guidance is wrong no matter what” which is the weather53 method or you can factor them all in together and interpret that as probabilities were never that high.  
 

not once all winter did the 3” probabilities get near 50% for any consistent period across guidance. And only once all winter did the probabilities for 1” get near 50 and that was when we did get that minor snow and about 1/2” in many places. 
 

You’re right if you simply add up all the snow from each individual run of guidance it’s grossly over predicts snow. But Imo that’s misleading because it fails to account for both runs that don’t show snow or probability which often shows the mean is skewed by snowy outliers and not what is indicated as the most likely outcome. 

[psuhoffman]

12 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The orientation of the EPO ridge matters. That amped positively tilted ridge is going to bury a trough out west. I think that is a Nina/TNH tendency. Maybe PSU has some thoughts. Either way, until I see that Aleutian ridge die off and the PNA head towards positive, I doubt we will do any better towards mid month. The  -PNA and SER are still there in the LR, then way out there we see the oft promised change, then it fades and never materializes. That h5 ens map WW posted above is just more of the same.

I was pessimistic when the current period looked good 10-15 days ago for this reason. Around March 10 the pattern does start to move towards what might be a meaningful change. Maybe. I’m more hopeful for a few reasons. Blocking progression. March wavelengths. High amplitude mjo wave progressing into the central pac.  If those 3 factors in tandem can’t squash the SER I don’t know what will. 

[stormtracker]

Well, gonna end p the same result, but the GFS has stopped going NW...looks like it moved a little souther if anything.

[brooklynwx99]

GFS going to be weaker and south. weaker S/W itself as well as lower heights in SE Canada

[stormtracker]

Man, north central PA getting good snows.  Still same for us, but it did tick SE a bit

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

GFS going to be weaker and south. weaker S/W itself as well as lower heights in SE Canada

Not much help for us, but yeah...I did notice that early on

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I was pessimistic when the current period looked good 10-15 days ago for this reason. Around March 10 the pattern does start to move towards what might be a meaningful change. Maybe. I’m more hopeful for a few reasons. Blocking progression. March wavelengths. High amplitude mjo wave progressing into the central pac.  If those 3 factors in tandem can’t squash the SER I don’t know what will. 

The Aleutian ridge/-PNA combo is the blocking pattern that wins. Unless that relaxes the NAO will probably keep losing that battle.

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Not much help for us, but yeah...I did notice that early on

hey, anything is something. stopping the bleeding at least

[Chris78]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Not much help for us, but yeah...I did notice that early on

Looks like maybe a little snow for northern MD and the highlands to start but not really what anyone is hoping for.

[jayyy]

Cmc and NAVGEM are the only two models that currently show a favorable outcome. What could go wrong


.

[paulythegun]

22 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This is just my opinion, but I’ve found they’re not nearly as misleading if you factor in probability and take a mean of multiple runs. Since usually we’re looking at events for long leads with the ensemble I think it’s best to take an average of say 2 days of runs for any one discreet threat or period.  What I’ve noted is sometimes some have a tendency to over weight the snowy runs and forget the non. If a couple runs are snowy and a couple are not you can either say “the guidance is wrong no matter what” which is the weather53 method or you can factor them all in together and interpret that as probabilities were never that high.  
 

not once all winter did the 3” probabilities get near 50% for any consistent period across guidance. And only once all winter did the probabilities for 1” get near 50 and that was when we did get that minor snow and about 1/2” in many places. 
 

You’re right if you simply add up all the snow from each individual run of guidance it’s grossly over predicts snow. But Imo that’s misleading because it fails to account for both runs that don’t show snow or probability which often shows the mean is skewed by snowy outliers and not what is indicated as the most likely outcome. 

Ha we could probably benefit from paying a bit more attention to the median with a skewed sample (it's almost always skewed by some blizzard outliers). For example, the 360 hr EPS median snowfall for dca is 1". The mean is well over 3". More often than not this winter, the median is 0"

[WesternFringe]

28 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This is just my opinion, but I’ve found they’re not nearly as misleading if you factor in probability and take a mean of multiple runs. Since usually we’re looking at events for long leads with the ensemble I think it’s best to take an average of say 2 days of runs for any one discreet threat or period.  What I’ve noted is sometimes some have a tendency to over weight the snowy runs and forget the non. If a couple runs are snowy and a couple are not you can either say “the guidance is wrong no matter what” which is the weather53 method or you can factor them all in together and interpret that as probabilities were never that high.  
 

not once all winter did the 3” probabilities get near 50% for any consistent period across guidance. And only once all winter did the probabilities for 1” get near 50 and that was when we did get that minor snow and about 1/2” in many places. 
 

You’re right if you simply add up all the snow from each individual run of guidance it’s grossly over predicts snow. But Imo that’s misleading because it fails to account for both runs that don’t show snow or probability which often shows the mean is skewed by snowy outliers and not what is indicated as the most likely outcome. 

“…looking at events for long leads with the ensemble I think it’s best to take an average of say 2 days of runs for any one discreet threat or period.”

Agreed- you make many valid points, but this is the best one.  My comment was more towards how many times daily I have been ‘ensembled’ mapped (NAM’d) to see exactly nothing produce from it.

Also, I am at 1550’ and way further west in a predominantly cutter pattern due to the SER, so ensembles have been accordingly bullish all winter showing much better percentages than you are saying that you have seen.  To no avail.

[psuhoffman]

15 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The Aleutian ridge/-PNA combo is the blocking pattern that wins. Unless that relaxes the NAO will probably keep losing that battle.

An Aleutian ridge -pna combo is a hallmark base state feature of a -pdo. It’s likely going to be that way the vast majority of of the time for the next 30 years. If we can’t offset and snow from a -NAO despite that pac base state we are FUCKED!  

[DarkSharkWX]

this should kill off the nina for good(high amplitude MJO event in phases 7/8)

additionally poses colder risks for mid-march(even though p8 is not as favored for cold as it would have been earlier in the winter)

[psuhoffman]

@CAPE let me clarify. I’m not saying every winter will be like this one. There will be some winters where the pac is more variable. There will be some rare winter months with a +pdo within the larger -pdo. We will get some +pdo periods. About 15-20% over the next 30 years if the last pdo cycle is any indication. 
 

But not every +pdo is gonna be a snowstravaganza. Some will get ruined by a +AO. Some won’t produce because of bad luck. 
 

so my point is if we’re going to be in a -pdo about 80% of the timr and it can’t snow anymore ever in that base state…yea we will get some snow over the next 3 decades in those rare anomalous periods but what we’ve been experiencing the last 7 years is gonna be the new normal and Baltimore is gonna avg like 10” of snow. 

[psuhoffman]

26 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

hey, anything is something. stopping the bleeding at least

The northern most outlier coming in line with the consensus doesn’t help when the consensus is already too far north. It’s too late to stop the bleeding once the patient is dead. 

[brooklynwx99]

I wouldn’t consider a threat dead at 5 days out. no need. models often do a horrible job with handling confluence 

I would agree that it’s not looking good, though, but Boston had 12-18” 4 days out for Monday and they’re getting like 2-4” now

[DarkSharkWX]

although its not looking good for us, i wouldn't be too surprised if NW of the fall line managed to see a bit of snow out of this

[psuhoffman]

18 minutes ago, WesternFringe said:

“…looking at events for long leads with the ensemble I think it’s best to take an average of say 2 days of runs for any one discreet threat or period.”

Agreed- you make many valid points, but this is the best one.  My comment was more towards how many times daily I have been ‘ensembled’ mapped (NAM’d) to see exactly nothing produce from it.

Also, I am at 1550’ and way further west in a predominantly cutter pattern due to the SER, so ensembles have been accordingly bullish all winter showing much better percentages than you are saying that you have seen.  To no avail.

I think ensembles over-predict for your area because they don’t have the resolution to handle ridges and valleys. You’re seeing a smoothed mean. So valley locations in an area like your are getting a mean more indicative of an avg elevation for the region which is likely closer to 3,000 ft. 

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I wouldn’t consider a threat dead at 5 days out. no need. models often do a horrible job with handling confluence 

I would agree that it’s not looking good, though, but Boston had 12-18” 4 days out for Monday and they’re getting like 2-4” now

Fair it’s not totally dead. But the Gfs coming more in line with other guidance isn’t the trend we need Imo.