MD Snow Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 GEPS actually took a nice step southI don’t know. Maybe just tightening the goal posts. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 1 minute ago, MD Snow said: I don’t know. Maybe just tightening the goal posts. . All 3 low pressure centers moved south, but thermals are the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 15 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: But wait a minute...Remember last month when the GFS was totally on it's own showing a favorable solution for literally DAYS before finally folding? That's why I'm not sure how much to trust it right now, lol If true of what you said, we have truly turned a page in this horrid winter. I do have hope right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 17 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: But wait a minute...Remember last month when the GFS was totally on it's own showing a favorable solution for literally DAYS before finally folding? That's why I'm not sure how much to trust it right now, lol Corrections to the North and West seem typical. Corrections to the south and east are pretty rare. I am pessimistic and hope I am wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 8 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: Corrections to the North and West seem typical. Corrections to the south and east are pretty rare. I am pessimistic and hope I am wrong. Oh yeah I hear ya. Not saying it def is wrong...just that the track record of it vs. the world hasn't been great this winter. But then again we can't trust anything to be good this winter...so there is that, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Well, here we go with the Euro...hopefully it holds on 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 6 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: Corrections to the North and West seem typical. Corrections to the south and east are pretty rare. I am pessimistic and hope I am wrong. Iirc from past experience, S and E corrections tend to occur more often when developing blocking up top is either being modeled too weak or incorrectly wrt timing (too slow developing on guidance vs reality). I think this could be one of those times where S and E corrections have increased possibility. Now during Archambault events where blocking is waning or the NAO is relaxing, we tend to see the N and W corrections more frequently. Again, my thinking may be wrong but this is how I remember it from my experiences. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Well, here we go with the Euro...hopefully it holds on Hold ooonnnnnn Hold onnnnnnnn Keep your eyes on the.... Whoops, sorry. Couldn't resist, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 That high is what's kicking the low north. Low needs to be in front or at the same time.Chicken vs egg. With a better Atlantic, maybe it wouldn’t nudge the system as far north. The pattern issues (for snow) are shown by how much we warmed up today after the wintry weather yesterday and how mild it’s been (and will be this week). The cold/blocking up top has just been too transient all season long, but maybe we can get this storm to at least include a changeover instead of a wall to wall rainer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 If euro shifts any NW, it’s over. Please hold! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said: If euro shifts any NW, it’s over. Please hold! 5 days out and set in stone? Based on the euro? Really? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 @stormtrackertake us home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 5 days out and set in stone? Based on the euro? Really? I think that was more of a concern that coming NW this time would start a trend of further and further that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 So far, noticing that the trof out west is a bit sharper than 6z..just noise level Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 46 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: But wait a minute...Remember last month when the GFS was totally on its own showing a favorable solution for literally DAYS before finally folding? That's why I'm not sure how much to trust it right now, lol There is some validity to this but keep in mind an outlier solution has a way better chance of scoring a coup when it’s on the side of typical climo then when it’s showing the more anomalous scenario. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Ok, at 99 hours, heights are oh so slight lower in the NE and over us, but again...probably noise. Surface is just a wee bit colder/souther 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Not sure we'd like where it is now. Some heigh rise in front of the s/w compared to 0z 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 120 a little more amp'd than 12z, but there's more of a pronounced h5 low near 50/50... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 seems like more confluence this run but more amped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 It's caving toward the GFS unfortunately. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Center of the SFC low is Ohio, KY, WV borders. Whereas on 0z it was down in central TN 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 And that's a wrap. Rainstorm. GFS ftw 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Everything in the MS and OH valley has shifted north. Not the trend we want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Brutal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: It's caving toward the GFS unfortunately. Just as expected! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Next 2 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Yep! I figured we'd be all green by 0z or earlier today...called it, lol Alright let's wait until Saturday to see how long something 7 days out will make it 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: And that's a wrap. Rainstorm. GFS ftw But what’s the trajectory of the rain? 6 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: There is some validity to this but keep in mind an outlier solution has a way better chance of scoring a coup when it’s on the side of typical climo then when it’s showing the more anomalous scenario. And now we have the case-in-point right here, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Tornado chasing anyone? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts