Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

March Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
 Share

Recommended Posts

7 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Kind of sucks to see the NAO trend upward just in time for phase 8.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.gefs.sprd2.png

A -NAO trending towards neutral isn’t bad, especially if the numerical trend is because the blocking is retrograding west into Canada which is increasing the NAO in the east region of the NAO domain. That’s not a bad look for us. 

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

SE ridge is pumping up every run. The storm is too slow and needs to be about 12 hours faster for confluence to really matter. 

The CMC and the Euro have been steadily headed north along with the icon. We all know where this is headed unless timing works out.

13d37329-c28c-44be-9c22-2f227be864b6.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

GEFS is at least slightly improved. more confluence and a slightly weaker vort

gfs-ens_z500a_us_fh114_trend.thumb.gif.16928a3b3496929b112d8f3b49db35c7.gif

And I see better separation between the vort and the one behind it. Maybe if this trend continues, ridging over montana can keep this vort pos tilted just a wee bit longer. It’s not much and it’s just one run, but it’s something. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

And I see better separation between the vort and the one behind it. Maybe if this trend continues, ridging over montana can keep this vort pos tilted just a wee bit longer. It’s not much and it’s just one run, but it’s something. 

Agreed. And it's 5 days out so there is actually time. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

These are rough times, but I kinda would feel better with the GFS on our side than the Euro. *runs and hides*

But wait a minute...Remember last month when the GFS was totally on it's own showing a favorable solution for literally DAYS before finally folding? That's why I'm not sure how much to trust it right now, lol

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

But wait a minute...Remember last month when the GFS was totally on it's own showing a favorable solution for literally DAYS before finally folding? That's why I'm not sure how much to trust it right now, lol

Even if the GFS is right with the track, it's probably at least 10mbs too deep with the pressure. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...