March Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Ji]

This storm was 12-16 inches a few days ago heading south and east towards Hatteras

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[stormtracker]

ok, we're back at 10 days!  I've lost interest 

[Ji]

ok, we're back at 10 days!  I've lost interest 

But the ingredients were being cooked at 8 days

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[Ji]

ok, we're back at 10 days!  I've lost interest 

That's a long ass super duration storm but we didn't even have to wait till 12z tomorrow for it to turn into a cutter

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[Chris78]

Massive - Nao but still cuts. 

I give up this winter.

[Ruin]

lol I said this when every one got excited its going to be a lake cutter lol

[frd]

3 hours ago, Chris78 said:

Massive - Nao but still cuts. 

I give up this winter.

WAR overpowers the the block. Shorter wavelengths don't help either, but they should.  When persistence has featured warmth why think it's going to change. You still need help from the Pac, one positive feature nowadays is not enough for snow. 

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z EPS….one should be pessimistic this season for a late snowstorm but the ten day system track is still uncertain.

[CAPE]

The general signal on the EPS (and CMC ens) for the March 4 storm at this point is an initial low tracking to our west, with possible secondary low development along the coast. GEFS not as much into the coastal idea for now.

[Jebman]

I really feel for you guys. I want a snowstorm to work out for the Mid Atlantic in March, or even this month, Feb. I am not sure whether I am an eternal optimist, or just a crazy eternal fool.

But either way, I am pulling for heavy snow for the Mid Atlantic. I want this sub to be very happy.

[CAPE]

The advertised longwave pattern is conducive for an inland track with a secondary coastal low instead of a straight up cutter. The thermal boundary is closer to the coast for this period, which has not been the case much of the time this winter. Plus there is a very favorable look in the NA.

[Weather Will]

At this point, give me a 6 plus inch storm or I can wait until next year…slim chances at this point but not zero…WB 0Z probs…will see what 0Z tonight looks like…

[CAPE]

Going forward, as I noted in the old thread, the NAO block builds westward into the 'ideal' location as the Aleutian ridge is reamplifying and that combo pinches off a chunk of TPV sending it southward, encouraging the trough to again dig out west. That's not a nice ridge bridge lol.

[Rtd208]

Some are getting to caught up in the op runs showing positive results for snow. I would be skeptical at this point and watch the trends.

[CAPE]

5 hours ago, Chris78 said:

Massive - Nao but still cuts. 

I give up this winter.

A -NAO is not the end all. It can be rendered ineffective(for our purposes) in the presence of a hostile Pacific. The persistently unfavorable location/orientation of the Aleutian ridge this winter is making it very difficult to get the thermal boundary far enough southward/eastward. Storms develop and track along that strong thermal/density gradient. What we can hope for as the block continues to strengthen is secondary low development along the coast as inland tracking storms track further north. That may tend to occur too late for the MA. Never forget the general rule for a Nina lol.

[TSSN+]

The fact anyone still looking for snow this winter is pretty funny. Hang it up folks. 

[Ji]

Gfs already lost Randy's storm to the Midwest

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[BristowWx]

3 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

The fact anyone still looking for snow this winter is pretty funny. Hang it up folks. 

Randy and Ji doing the pbp last night…dogs and cats living together…it’s chaos

[WinterWxLuvr]

2 hours ago, TSSN+ said:

The fact anyone still looking for snow this winter is pretty funny. Hang it up folks. 

Ok, see ya next year

[jayyy]

A perfect summation of the winter thus far on the NWS warnings map

Fuck it, why not throw a blizzard warning in the LA suburbs in there for good measure

[psuhoffman]

4 hours ago, CAPE said:

A -NAO is not the end all. It can be rendered ineffective(for our purposes) in the presence of a hostile Pacific. The persistently unfavorable location/orientation of the Aleutian ridge this winter is making it very difficult to get the thermal boundary far enough southward/eastward. Storms develop and track along that strong thermal/density gradient. What we can hope for as the block continues to strengthen is secondary low development along the coast as inland tracking storms track further north. That may tend to occur too late for the MA. Never forget the general rule for a Nina lol.

But if we are in another long term -PDO, and if like the last one the pacific is going to be in this base state for almost all of the next 30 years...what exactly do we need to snow now then?  Because a -NAO is how we overcame that pacific last time we had a long term -PDO.  We didn't get snow in that era because the pacific was helpful...we got snow in spite of a hostile pac almost all the time.  But the problem I see now is, since this current PDO flip...the things that worked last time are not working the same way now.  

[Interstate]

10 hours ago, stormtracker said:

ok, we're back at 10 days!  I've lost interest 

Just think about it... if the models only went out 5 days... we would never have anything to track and the servers could be shut down.

[Daniel Boone]

19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

But if we are in another long term -PDO, and if like the last one the pacific is going to be in this base state for almost all of the next 30 years...what exactly do we need to snow now then?  Because a -NAO is how we overcame that pacific last time we had a long term -PDO.  We didn't get snow in that era because the pacific was helpful...we got snow in spite of a hostile pac almost all the time.  But the problem I see now is, since this current PDO flip...the things that worked last time are not working the same way now.  

I agree so, let's look elsewhere. Global warming ?, QBO? , Warm Atlantic SST's ?...Those NW Atlantic SST's are ,imo, the problem irt getting the usual accompaning 50-50 Low. Therefore, allowing the SER and -NAO hookup.

[Daniel Boone]

5 hours ago, CAPE said:

The advertised longwave pattern is conducive for an inland track with a secondary coastal low instead of a straight up cutter. The thermal boundary is closer to the coast for this period, which has not been the case much of the time this winter. Plus there is a very favorable look in the NA.

Yeah, it's showing at least somewhat of a 50-50. Question is, will it hold though ?

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

I agree so, let's look elsewhere. Global warming ?, QBO? , Warm Atlantic SST's ?...Those NW Atlantic SST's are ,imo, the problem irt getting the usual accompaning 50-50 Low. Therefore, allowing the SER and -NAO hookup.

I agree with the SST's being a big part of the problem but I think its more general than a specific 50/50 issue.  We have had about 5 blocks since the last time one really worked, and that was even marginal, March 2018.  In some of them the fail was that there was no 50/50 and a WAR.  But there have been several where we did have a 50/50 and the SER linked up with the -NAO to the west of the 50/50 anyways.  Basically the SER bullied the 50/50, forcing it east slightly, then linked up behind it.  The problem is simple...the warmth is winning in the equation.  The suppressive effects of the NAO are still there... if you look you can see it...but its not winning ENOUGH to get the boundary south of us as much of the time.  We are still struggling even during blocking lately.  As for why... we should discuss that over in the other thread probably.  

[psuhoffman]

@Ji you asked about the PDO... unfortunately we are only about 5 years into this current -PDO.  The last -PDO lasted for 35 years.  This is something I've hinted at a couple times, but its depressing... but what if the "snowy" period we've been waiting for here actually was the 2000 to 2020 period and it simply wasn't that snowy here because the climate was already degrading we just didn't notice as much because of the +PDO we were in.  But places not too far north of us were getting absolutely blasted with snow during that period while we were only about average.  What if that really was the very snowy cycle we were due for and we simply didn't take advantage of it because things were already getting warmer.  And now we are in another "down cycle" and its god awful instead of just bad.  

 

ETA:  this does not have to be a AGW debate btw.  Whether it's warmer because of a normal cycle that has nothing to do with AGW or not is irrelevant.  We can discuss changes in our snow climo without having to debate AGW.   

[Daniel Boone]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I agree with the SST's being a big part of the problem but I think its more general than a specific 50/50 issue.  We have had about 5 blocks since the last time one really worked, and that was even marginal, March 2018.  In some of them the fail was that there was no 50/50 and a WAR.  But there have been several where we did have a 50/50 and the SER linked up with the -NAO to the west of the 50/50 anyways.  Basically the SER bullied the 50/50, forcing it east slightly, then linked up behind it.  The problem is simple...the warmth is winning in the equation.  The suppressive effects of the NAO are still there... if you look you can see it...but its not winning ENOUGH to get the boundary south of us as much of the time.  We are still struggling even during blocking lately.  As for why... we should discuss that over in the other thread probably.  

Yeah, see what ur saying and yeah, other factor's at play as well. Canada is pretty cold now so, hopefully that'll assist in the suppressing this go around. It may be just the sheer strength of the SER and Trugh deepness out west doing much of it. Of course, that moves on to chicken and egg, cause and effect.

[CAPE]

52 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

But if we are in another long term -PDO, and if like the last one the pacific is going to be in this base state for almost all of the next 30 years...what exactly do we need to snow now then?  Because a -NAO is how we overcame that pacific last time we had a long term -PDO.  We didn't get snow in that era because the pacific was helpful...we got snow in spite of a hostile pac almost all the time.  But the problem I see now is, since this current PDO flip...the things that worked last time are not working the same way now.  

My wag is that the NAO would do what we want it to do (like March 2018) if the Pacific was 'workable' instead of downright hostile. The persistent placement and orientation of that PAC ridge since early Jan is god awful as it keeps the PNA significantly negative and the trough location is such that the boundary is almost always well to our west. Typically there is enough variation so there are periods where the PNA/EPO are more conducive for cold bleeding southeastward and a favorable storm track. 

[stormtracker]

As we await the 12z runs for shits and giggles, out of the following, how do we fail with any upcoming storms?

Too much blocking, suppressed

Despite blocking, cutter

Cutter

Great track, warm

Pushed back to....Day 10

 

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

As we await the 12z runs for shits and giggles, out of the following, how do we fail with any upcoming storms?

Too much blocking, suppressed

Despite blocking, cutter

Cutter

Great track, warm

Pushed back to....Day 10

 

I'll go with C and E.