brooklynwx99 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 colder and farther S as a result of those changes. this is the second GEFS run in a row to make this shift 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 3 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: LOL! Extra kudos for the Gordon Ramsay reference! Seen many episodes of his "Hell's Kitchen", and it's pretty interesting and amusing. Now, if only the GFS can get more on board?? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 as expected, snowfall is farther SE. this is an absolute monster signal for this range 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 js for fun 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 25, 2023 Author Share Posted February 25, 2023 GFS in the midst of a full scale cave towards the farther south solutions. That’s my call. And I’m actually more worried about a slider than I am about an OV low. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: GFS in the midst of a full scale cave towards the farther south solutions. That’s my call. And I’m actually more worried about a slider than I am about an OV low. (Predicts Ralph will like this post) 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: GFS in the midst of a full scale cave towards the farther south solutions. That’s my call. And I’m actually more worried about a slider than I am about an OV low. Woah…never expected you to say that. All in now! A slider? Yeah…that would be a fine kettle of fish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 12 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: GFS in the midst of a full scale cave towards the farther south solutions. That’s my call. And I’m actually more worried about a slider than I am about an OV low. I don’t know about that. The GFS is shifting south and the other models are shifting north. The are meeting in the middle. You just notice it more on the GFS because it runs twice as much as the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 @psuhoffman are you going to start the snowfall probabilities again? I thought they were a pretty useful way to see how things have changed from the last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 3 minutes ago, Interstate said: I don’t know about that. The GFS is shifting south and the other models are shifting north. The are meeting in the middle. You just notice it more on the GFS because it runs twice as much as the other models. i mean honestly CMC has been shifting S and while euro has been incrementally going N, EPS has been going south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 1 hour ago, paulythegun said: One Difference between 12z euro and this gfs run is on the euro, the pacific ridge develops and runs overtop of the western trough, keeping the trough strongly positive. That delays amplification that you see on 18z gfs (an apps runner) Atmospheric wave interactions are so complex and interesting. Just sitting here (a little high) animating and analyzing the differences in the pattern evolution that lead to the different outcomes between the GFS and Euro. There are many (rather subtle) interactions that can be visually identified that lead to significant differences later, but determining the exact initiating 'causes' are literally impossible, as waves are constantly interacting and upstream/downstream is relative in a hemispheric longwave pattern. Then there is the matter of how far back you want to look in time to try to identify what features (and differences in their character) may be influencing any differences in the ultimate outcome later on. Fascinating stuff and yes I do this as an exercise a lot during winter lol. Probably a good one for weather weenies trying to gain an intuitive understanding of a complex process. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 6 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: @psuhoffman are you going to start the snowfall probabilities again? I thought they were a pretty useful way to see how things have changed from the last run. just calculated it for reference in case it's useful to you, the 12z ensembles snowfall probs (would use 18z but it isn't out on meteograms yet) at IAD IAD probs: >1" - 47% >6" - 31% 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 WB 18Z GEFS, lots of spread still in the low position for midday Friday, but clear shift SE compared to 18Z yesterday. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 18z euro looks like a nod towards gfs at the upper levels at hour 90, but idk if i'm wrong or if it actually did 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 37 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said: just calculated it for reference in case it's useful to you, the 12z ensembles snowfall probs (would use 18z but it isn't out on meteograms yet) at IAD IAD probs: >1" - 47% >6" - 31% I guess it really is go big or go home. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 18z euro looks like a nod towards gfs at the upper levels at hour 90, but idk if i'm wrong or if it actually didWay too early to use hour 90 for that 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 1 hour ago, SnowenOutThere said: @psuhoffman are you going to start the snowfall probabilities again? I thought they were a pretty useful way to see how things have changed from the last run. Sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 The frickle? I will never understand how this happens in the chaos of weather, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 20 minutes ago, Ji said: Way too early to use hour 90 for that nah eps changed the same way euro did and eps at hour 144 is pretty horrid. snow cut back by 1.1" compared to last run and 850mb temps are ~3° warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Just now, AtlanticWx said: nah eps changed the same way euro did and eps at hour 144 is pretty horrid. snow cut back by 1.1" compared to last run and 850mb temps are ~3° warmer meh, it’s one run. GEFS did the same crap at 06z just to revert back colder. wouldn’t make too much out of it unless it consistently showed that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 WB 18Z EPS at Day 6. It seems to be moving east a little slower, not sure if the heights are a little higher as a result of that because the center of the 500 MB is at the same latitude just further west and moving due east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 nah eps changed the same way euro did and eps at hour 144 is pretty horrid. snow cut back by 1.1" compared to last run and 850mb temps are ~3° warmerYikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 7 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: meh, it’s one run. GEFS did the same crap at 06z just to revert back colder. wouldn’t make too much out of it unless it consistently showed that euro control looks very nice to say the least but if this ends up trending NW we're all screwed lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 1 minute ago, AtlanticWx said: euro control looks very nice to say the least but if this ends up trending NW we're all screwed lmao Yeah, even if gfs and euro splits the difference it’s not good enough for us. Maybe along the mountains and PA north in that case Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Not sure if the storm has finished across all ens members by 144 on the eps? Some may start as rain and end as snow which may not be included in the snow map?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Just now, MD Snow said: Not sure if the storm has finished across all ens members by 144 on the eps. I’m sure some members may be slower. Some may start as rain and end as snow which may not be included in the snow map. . i mean you can tell by the increase in 850mb temps it'll be worse fs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 WB EURO control is completely acceptable. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 euro control looks very nice to say the least but if this ends up trending NW we're all screwed lmaoEuro control always looks nice. At any rate…the least snowiest model will always prevail till March 8. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 WB EURO control is completely acceptable.It’s actually terrible. No margin for error. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 9 minutes ago, Ji said: It’s actually terrible. No margin for error . There is no margin of error. There is going to be a narrow band of heavy snow. This is a thread the needle event. It will be Wed. Before we know what will happen. Enjoy the tracking. We have had nothing to track in 2 months inside 6 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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