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March Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

GFS in the midst of a full scale cave towards the farther south solutions. That’s my call.

And I’m actually more worried about a slider than I am about an OV low.

Woah…never expected you to say that.  All in now!  A slider?  Yeah…that would be a fine kettle of fish 

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12 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

GFS in the midst of a full scale cave towards the farther south solutions. That’s my call.

And I’m actually more worried about a slider than I am about an OV low.

I don’t know about that. The GFS is shifting south and the other models are shifting north. The are meeting in the middle. You just notice it more on the GFS because it runs twice as much as the other models. 

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3 minutes ago, Interstate said:

I don’t know about that. The GFS is shifting south and the other models are shifting north. The are meeting in the middle. You just notice it more on the GFS because it runs twice as much as the other models. 

i mean honestly CMC has been shifting S and while euro has been incrementally going N, EPS has been going south

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1 hour ago, paulythegun said:

One Difference between 12z euro and this gfs run is on the euro, the pacific ridge develops and runs overtop of the western trough, keeping the trough strongly positive. That delays amplification that you see on 18z gfs (an apps runner)

FB225274-BC4A-49E3-B077-75F9345F8ADD.thumb.jpeg.959cbc5f6a1fbcf0cbb21d0563e4bc40.jpeg

 

Atmospheric wave interactions are so complex and interesting. Just sitting here (a little high) animating and analyzing the differences in the pattern evolution that lead to the different outcomes between the GFS and Euro. There are many (rather subtle) interactions that can be visually identified that lead to significant differences later, but determining the exact initiating 'causes' are literally impossible, as waves are constantly interacting and upstream/downstream is relative in a hemispheric longwave pattern. Then there is the matter of how far back you want to look in time to try to identify what features (and differences in their character) may be influencing any differences in the ultimate outcome later on. Fascinating stuff and yes I do this as an exercise a lot during winter lol. Probably a good one for weather weenies trying to gain an intuitive understanding of a complex process.

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6 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

@psuhoffman are you going to start the snowfall probabilities again? I thought they were a pretty useful way to see how things have changed from the last run. 

just calculated it for reference in case it's useful to you, the 12z ensembles snowfall probs (would use 18z but it isn't out on meteograms yet) at IAD

IAD probs:
>1" - 47%
>6" - 31%

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Just now, AtlanticWx said:

nah eps changed the same way euro did and eps at hour 144 is pretty horrid. 

image.thumb.png.7bfdfa3d77d380ddee37937e4a195ac0.png

snow cut back by 1.1" compared to last run and 850mb temps are ~3° warmer

meh, it’s one run. GEFS did the same crap at 06z just to revert back colder. wouldn’t make too much out of it unless it consistently showed that

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9 minutes ago, Ji said:


It’s actually terrible. No margin for error


.

There is no margin of error.  There is going to be a narrow band of heavy snow.  This is a thread the needle event.  It will be Wed. Before we know what will happen. Enjoy the tracking. We have had nothing to track in 2 months inside 6 days.

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