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March Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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1 minute ago, paulythegun said:

One Difference between 12z euro and this gfs run is on the euro, the pacific ridge develops and runs overtop of the western trough, keeping the trough strongly positive. That delays amplification that you see on 18z gfs (an apps runner)

FB225274-BC4A-49E3-B077-75F9345F8ADD.thumb.jpeg.959cbc5f6a1fbcf0cbb21d0563e4bc40.jpeg

 

Agreed,  keeping the troff positively tilted like the Euro is key here.   The blocking is never going to force a 976MB bomb over W KY  to reform east of Ocean City.  

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3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Yep. Shift that configuration closer towards the Miss River and we party.  Otherwise that looks like she's gone negative in a hurry.

And there is only an upper 1020 H in the N Plains.  Not a 1040 elephant pressing down.  There is work to be done on the GFS before we see anything close to what we want…little shifts south just make the colder rain last longer here.  

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