AtlanticWx Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Holy shit, can't recall such a signal from EPS at all this winter 6 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Nice uptick in snow mean between WB 12Z EPS today and yesterday. Still in the game 6 days out!!! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 I'll take my chances at this point. We've had nothing and we are talking March. Go big or go home. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 3 minutes ago, paulythegun said: All or nothing here 3-6" mean 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 EPS is really nice. stronger S/W but also more confluence, leads to a colder, stronger storm 3 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Look at how the Pacific is the worst possible when the -NAO starts to move in ^This fits really well until the NAO overtakes Greenland, still I contend that since 2019, W->E has overstated S->N. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 WB 12Z EPS probs for late week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 For the love of god why can’t the GFS get on board…I’m getting drunk now for HH. That should do it 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Come on Americans.. you can do it. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 7 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said: Holy shit, can't recall such a signal from EPS at all this winter There hasn’t been. Low bar. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Just now, CAPE said: Come on Americans.. you can do it. its amazing how every threat this winter...there has been one dr no model...and the model has always been right. I guess as we get closer...im glad its the GFS that is the dr no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Just now, Ji said: its amazing how every threat this winter...there has been one dr no model...and the model has always been right. I guess as we get closer...im glad its the GFS that is the dr no But what is your rule…go with the shittiest model and assume it’s right. GFS has been slowly ticking NW every run. Need the Ukie to get on board. Then it’s a CMC/Euro/UK combo…that could work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 5 1 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: But what is your rule…go with the shittiest model and assume it’s right. GFS has been slowly ticking NW every run. Need the Ukie to get on board. Then it’s a CMC/Euro/UK combo…that could work the ICON is more in line with the CMC/Euro. Where is the UK at? To me that is up there with the nogaps lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Just now, brooklynwx99 said: crazy how the GFS and EURO just freaking flipped flopped with each other from 2 days ago. Why cant they agree?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 5 minutes ago, Ji said: the ICON is more in line with the CMC/Euro. Where is the UK at? To me that is up there with the nogaps lol Yeah but a UK/nogaps/JMA combo wounds the GFS output. We need it all..its a royal rumble and GFS is Andre the Giant right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 fwiw the top 25% of members' snowfall within eps, gefs and gefs respectively 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Reasonable discussion: FOR FRIDAY THOUGH, A MORE SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE UPPER- LEVEL JET PATTERN. MODEL GUIDANCE IS VERY SPLIT IN TERMS OF HOW THIS DEVELOPS AND THE SPECIFIC IMPACTS TO OUR REGION. THE UPPER DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL JET LOOKS TO BE PLENTY STRONG TO PUSH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TOWARDS THE EAST, OPENING THE DOOR FOR A POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW. THIS LOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP FRIDAY ALONG THE GULF COAST OR IN THE SOUTHEAST (DEPENDING ON EXACTLY WHERE THE UPPER LOW TRACKS). FROM THERE, THAT IS WHERE THE BIG QUESTIONS FOR US COME. THERE ARE 3 SCENARIOS THAT COULD PLAY OUT, AND THEY ALL ARE DEPENDENT ON WHEN/IF THE POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL JETS ARE ABLE TO PHASE. THE FIRST SCENARIO WOULD TAKE THE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH AND WELL OFFSHORE IF THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY SIGNIFICANTLY OUTPACES THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY. THE SECOND SCENARIO PHASES THE TWO PIECES OF ENERGY TOO EARLY, TAKING THE PRIMARY LOW TO OUR WEST, GIVING US THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN, BUT LIKELY NO WINTRY WEATHER. COULD EVEN SEE A SCENARIO WHERE THIS COULD PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER. NOW, FOR SCENARIO THREE WE WOULD NEED THE UPPER LOW TO JUST TRACK BETWEEN THE FIRST TWO SCENARIOS. THIS COULD OCCUR IF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE GETS POSITIONED JUST RIGHT OR IF THE TWO SYSTEMS WERE TO MANAGE TO PHASE IN THE RIGHT SPOT, WHICH SEEMS UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT. THIS THIRD SCENARIO WOULD PRODUCE SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION FOR AT LEAST SOME PORTIONS OF THE AREA. AT THIS TIME RANGE THOUGH...THAT IS GOING TO BE NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO NAIL DOWN EXACTLY RIGHT. MONITORING TRENDS IN THE COMING DAYS WILL BE KEY TO THIS FORECAST, AND RECENT TRENDS HAVE BEEN SNOWIER... SO, AS THIS GETS CLOSER ON OUR RADAR, HOPEFULLY SOME GOOD SAMPLING FROM UPPER AIR DATA WILL START TO HELP GUIDANCE CONVERGE ON A COMMON SOLUTION. FOR NOW, THIS IS JUST SOMETHING TO MONITOR. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 7 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said: Reasonable discussion: FOR FRIDAY THOUGH, A MORE SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE UPPER- LEVEL JET PATTERN. MODEL GUIDANCE IS VERY SPLIT IN TERMS OF HOW THIS DEVELOPS AND THE SPECIFIC IMPACTS TO OUR REGION. THE UPPER DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL JET LOOKS TO BE PLENTY STRONG TO PUSH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TOWARDS THE EAST, OPENING THE DOOR FOR A POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW. THIS LOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP FRIDAY ALONG THE GULF COAST OR IN THE SOUTHEAST (DEPENDING ON EXACTLY WHERE THE UPPER LOW TRACKS). FROM THERE, THAT IS WHERE THE BIG QUESTIONS FOR US COME. THERE ARE 3 SCENARIOS THAT COULD PLAY OUT, AND THEY ALL ARE DEPENDENT ON WHEN/IF THE POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL JETS ARE ABLE TO PHASE. THE FIRST SCENARIO WOULD TAKE THE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH AND WELL OFFSHORE IF THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY SIGNIFICANTLY OUTPACES THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY. THE SECOND SCENARIO PHASES THE TWO PIECES OF ENERGY TOO EARLY, TAKING THE PRIMARY LOW TO OUR WEST, GIVING US THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN, BUT LIKELY NO WINTRY WEATHER. COULD EVEN SEE A SCENARIO WHERE THIS COULD PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER. NOW, FOR SCENARIO THREE WE WOULD NEED THE UPPER LOW TO JUST TRACK BETWEEN THE FIRST TWO SCENARIOS. THIS COULD OCCUR IF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE GETS POSITIONED JUST RIGHT OR IF THE TWO SYSTEMS WERE TO MANAGE TO PHASE IN THE RIGHT SPOT, WHICH SEEMS UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT. THIS THIRD SCENARIO WOULD PRODUCE SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION FOR AT LEAST SOME PORTIONS OF THE AREA. AT THIS TIME RANGE THOUGH...THAT IS GOING TO BE NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO NAIL DOWN EXACTLY RIGHT. MONITORING TRENDS IN THE COMING DAYS WILL BE KEY TO THIS FORECAST, AND RECENT TRENDS HAVE BEEN SNOWIER... SO, AS THIS GETS CLOSER ON OUR RADAR, HOPEFULLY SOME GOOD SAMPLING FROM UPPER AIR DATA WILL START TO HELP GUIDANCE CONVERGE ON A COMMON SOLUTION. FOR NOW, THIS IS JUST SOMETHING TO MONITOR. So to sum it up, the winter storm scenario is the unlikeliest one out of the three. Given how this winter went, the most likely is an early phase, W track, and rain. Maybe we’ll get something different for a change, but not holding my breath. Worth watching to see how this all plays out though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 11 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said: Reasonable discussion: FOR FRIDAY THOUGH, A MORE SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE UPPER- LEVEL JET PATTERN. MODEL GUIDANCE IS VERY SPLIT IN TERMS OF HOW THIS DEVELOPS AND THE SPECIFIC IMPACTS TO OUR REGION. THE UPPER DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL JET LOOKS TO BE PLENTY STRONG TO PUSH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TOWARDS THE EAST, OPENING THE DOOR FOR A POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW. THIS LOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP FRIDAY ALONG THE GULF COAST OR IN THE SOUTHEAST (DEPENDING ON EXACTLY WHERE THE UPPER LOW TRACKS). FROM THERE, THAT IS WHERE THE BIG QUESTIONS FOR US COME. THERE ARE 3 SCENARIOS THAT COULD PLAY OUT, AND THEY ALL ARE DEPENDENT ON WHEN/IF THE POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL JETS ARE ABLE TO PHASE. THE FIRST SCENARIO WOULD TAKE THE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH AND WELL OFFSHORE IF THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY SIGNIFICANTLY OUTPACES THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY. THE SECOND SCENARIO PHASES THE TWO PIECES OF ENERGY TOO EARLY, TAKING THE PRIMARY LOW TO OUR WEST, GIVING US THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN, BUT LIKELY NO WINTRY WEATHER. COULD EVEN SEE A SCENARIO WHERE THIS COULD PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER. NOW, FOR SCENARIO THREE WE WOULD NEED THE UPPER LOW TO JUST TRACK BETWEEN THE FIRST TWO SCENARIOS. THIS COULD OCCUR IF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE GETS POSITIONED JUST RIGHT OR IF THE TWO SYSTEMS WERE TO MANAGE TO PHASE IN THE RIGHT SPOT, WHICH SEEMS UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT. THIS THIRD SCENARIO WOULD PRODUCE SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION FOR AT LEAST SOME PORTIONS OF THE AREA. AT THIS TIME RANGE THOUGH...THAT IS GOING TO BE NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO NAIL DOWN EXACTLY RIGHT. MONITORING TRENDS IN THE COMING DAYS WILL BE KEY TO THIS FORECAST, AND RECENT TRENDS HAVE BEEN SNOWIER... SO, AS THIS GETS CLOSER ON OUR RADAR, HOPEFULLY SOME GOOD SAMPLING FROM UPPER AIR DATA WILL START TO HELP GUIDANCE CONVERGE ON A COMMON SOLUTION. FOR NOW, THIS IS JUST SOMETHING TO MONITOR. when was this dicsussion posted? bc as of now, both EPS and GEPS show a pretty perfect track in terms of how the NS doesn't outpace or get held back and phase with the SS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 3 minutes ago, Terpeast said: So to sum it up, the winter storm scenario is the unlikeliest one out of the three. Given how this winter went, the most likely is an early phase, W track, and rain. Maybe we’ll get something different for a change, but not holding my breath. Worth watching to see how this all plays out though. Can’t we enjoy ourselves for a few hours 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 2 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Can’t we enjoy ourselves for a few hours Yeah it’s not about the destination it’s the journey. We know when the car runs out of gas. I’ve seen the Euro flip to shit in one run. Hundreds of times…thousands 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: Hmmmm…open’em!? Close’em!? What the fuck is going on!? 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 this is honestly gonna be one of the last if not the last storms to track for the season (as if we've had any) so idk ab you guys but i'm gonna have fun tracking this HH GFS frame by frame analysis who's with me 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 5 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Yeah it’s not about the destination it’s the journey. We know when the car runs out of gas. I’ve seen the Euro flip to shit in one run. Hundreds of times…thousands The problem with this one is absolutely no room for error with temps in the mid 30s. We need exactly as shown by the euro for any accumulating snow. If there was any actual cold ahead of the storm it would be less tenuous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 When can we start the long range NAM checking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 4 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: The problem with this one is absolutely no room for error with temps in the mid 30s. We need exactly as shown by the euro for any accumulating snow. If there was any actual cold ahead of the storm it would be less tenuous. The story of 2022-2023... This is a given! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 WB 12z EPS. If we don’t get lucky with late week storm the pattern continues to look good for the next/ final window of opportunity in the second to third week of March….buckle up!!!!! The thrill of victory is only 50 miles away from the agony of defeat with almost every storm. But it should be emphasized again great EPS run!!!! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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