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March Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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Just now, Ji said:

its amazing how every threat this winter...there has been one dr no model...and the model has always been right. I guess as we get closer...im glad its the GFS that is the dr no

But what is your rule…go with the shittiest model and assume it’s right.  GFS has been slowly ticking NW every run.  Need the Ukie to get on board.  Then it’s a CMC/Euro/UK combo…that could work 

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1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

But what is your rule…go with the shittiest model and assume it’s right.  GFS has been slowly ticking NW every run.  Need the Ukie to get on board.  Then it’s a CMC/Euro/UK combo…that could work 

the ICON is more in line with the CMC/Euro. Where is the UK at? To me that is up there with the nogaps lol

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Reasonable discussion:

  FOR FRIDAY THOUGH, A MORE SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE UPPER-   LEVEL JET PATTERN. MODEL GUIDANCE IS VERY SPLIT IN TERMS OF HOW   THIS DEVELOPS AND THE SPECIFIC IMPACTS TO OUR REGION. THE UPPER   DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL JET LOOKS TO BE PLENTY STRONG   TO PUSH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TOWARDS THE EAST, OPENING THE   DOOR FOR A POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW. THIS LOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP   FRIDAY ALONG THE GULF COAST OR IN THE SOUTHEAST (DEPENDING ON   EXACTLY WHERE THE UPPER LOW TRACKS). FROM THERE, THAT IS WHERE   THE BIG QUESTIONS FOR US COME. THERE ARE 3 SCENARIOS THAT COULD   PLAY OUT, AND THEY ALL ARE DEPENDENT ON WHEN/IF THE POLAR AND   SUBTROPICAL JETS ARE ABLE TO PHASE. THE FIRST SCENARIO WOULD   TAKE THE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH AND WELL OFFSHORE IF THE NORTHERN   STREAM ENERGY SIGNIFICANTLY OUTPACES THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY.   THE SECOND SCENARIO PHASES THE TWO PIECES OF ENERGY TOO EARLY,   TAKING THE PRIMARY LOW TO OUR WEST, GIVING US THE POTENTIAL FOR   RAIN, BUT LIKELY NO WINTRY WEATHER. COULD EVEN SEE A SCENARIO   WHERE THIS COULD PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER. NOW, FOR SCENARIO THREE   WE WOULD NEED THE UPPER LOW TO JUST TRACK BETWEEN THE FIRST TWO   SCENARIOS. THIS COULD OCCUR IF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE GETS   POSITIONED JUST RIGHT OR IF THE TWO SYSTEMS WERE TO MANAGE TO   PHASE IN THE RIGHT SPOT, WHICH SEEMS UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT.   THIS THIRD SCENARIO WOULD PRODUCE SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION FOR   AT LEAST SOME PORTIONS OF THE AREA.    

AT THIS TIME RANGE THOUGH...THAT IS GOING TO BE NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO   NAIL DOWN EXACTLY RIGHT. MONITORING TRENDS IN THE COMING DAYS WILL   BE KEY TO THIS FORECAST, AND RECENT TRENDS HAVE BEEN SNOWIER... SO,   AS THIS GETS CLOSER ON OUR RADAR, HOPEFULLY SOME GOOD SAMPLING FROM   UPPER AIR DATA WILL START TO HELP GUIDANCE CONVERGE ON A COMMON   SOLUTION. FOR NOW, THIS IS JUST SOMETHING TO MONITOR.

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7 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said:

Reasonable discussion:

  FOR FRIDAY THOUGH, A MORE SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE UPPER-   LEVEL JET PATTERN. MODEL GUIDANCE IS VERY SPLIT IN TERMS OF HOW   THIS DEVELOPS AND THE SPECIFIC IMPACTS TO OUR REGION. THE UPPER   DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL JET LOOKS TO BE PLENTY STRONG   TO PUSH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TOWARDS THE EAST, OPENING THE   DOOR FOR A POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW. THIS LOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP   FRIDAY ALONG THE GULF COAST OR IN THE SOUTHEAST (DEPENDING ON   EXACTLY WHERE THE UPPER LOW TRACKS). FROM THERE, THAT IS WHERE   THE BIG QUESTIONS FOR US COME. THERE ARE 3 SCENARIOS THAT COULD   PLAY OUT, AND THEY ALL ARE DEPENDENT ON WHEN/IF THE POLAR AND   SUBTROPICAL JETS ARE ABLE TO PHASE. THE FIRST SCENARIO WOULD   TAKE THE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH AND WELL OFFSHORE IF THE NORTHERN   STREAM ENERGY SIGNIFICANTLY OUTPACES THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY.   THE SECOND SCENARIO PHASES THE TWO PIECES OF ENERGY TOO EARLY,   TAKING THE PRIMARY LOW TO OUR WEST, GIVING US THE POTENTIAL FOR   RAIN, BUT LIKELY NO WINTRY WEATHER. COULD EVEN SEE A SCENARIO   WHERE THIS COULD PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER. NOW, FOR SCENARIO THREE   WE WOULD NEED THE UPPER LOW TO JUST TRACK BETWEEN THE FIRST TWO   SCENARIOS. THIS COULD OCCUR IF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE GETS   POSITIONED JUST RIGHT OR IF THE TWO SYSTEMS WERE TO MANAGE TO   PHASE IN THE RIGHT SPOT, WHICH SEEMS UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT.   THIS THIRD SCENARIO WOULD PRODUCE SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION FOR   AT LEAST SOME PORTIONS OF THE AREA.    

AT THIS TIME RANGE THOUGH...THAT IS GOING TO BE NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO   NAIL DOWN EXACTLY RIGHT. MONITORING TRENDS IN THE COMING DAYS WILL   BE KEY TO THIS FORECAST, AND RECENT TRENDS HAVE BEEN SNOWIER... SO,   AS THIS GETS CLOSER ON OUR RADAR, HOPEFULLY SOME GOOD SAMPLING FROM   UPPER AIR DATA WILL START TO HELP GUIDANCE CONVERGE ON A COMMON   SOLUTION. FOR NOW, THIS IS JUST SOMETHING TO MONITOR.

So to sum it up, the winter storm scenario is the unlikeliest one out of the three. Given how this winter went, the most likely is an early phase, W track, and rain. Maybe we’ll get something different for a change, but not holding my breath. Worth watching to see how this all plays out though. 

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11 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said:

Reasonable discussion:

  FOR FRIDAY THOUGH, A MORE SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE UPPER-   LEVEL JET PATTERN. MODEL GUIDANCE IS VERY SPLIT IN TERMS OF HOW   THIS DEVELOPS AND THE SPECIFIC IMPACTS TO OUR REGION. THE UPPER   DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL JET LOOKS TO BE PLENTY STRONG   TO PUSH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TOWARDS THE EAST, OPENING THE   DOOR FOR A POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW. THIS LOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP   FRIDAY ALONG THE GULF COAST OR IN THE SOUTHEAST (DEPENDING ON   EXACTLY WHERE THE UPPER LOW TRACKS). FROM THERE, THAT IS WHERE   THE BIG QUESTIONS FOR US COME. THERE ARE 3 SCENARIOS THAT COULD   PLAY OUT, AND THEY ALL ARE DEPENDENT ON WHEN/IF THE POLAR AND   SUBTROPICAL JETS ARE ABLE TO PHASE. THE FIRST SCENARIO WOULD   TAKE THE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH AND WELL OFFSHORE IF THE NORTHERN   STREAM ENERGY SIGNIFICANTLY OUTPACES THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY.   THE SECOND SCENARIO PHASES THE TWO PIECES OF ENERGY TOO EARLY,   TAKING THE PRIMARY LOW TO OUR WEST, GIVING US THE POTENTIAL FOR   RAIN, BUT LIKELY NO WINTRY WEATHER. COULD EVEN SEE A SCENARIO   WHERE THIS COULD PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER. NOW, FOR SCENARIO THREE   WE WOULD NEED THE UPPER LOW TO JUST TRACK BETWEEN THE FIRST TWO   SCENARIOS. THIS COULD OCCUR IF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE GETS   POSITIONED JUST RIGHT OR IF THE TWO SYSTEMS WERE TO MANAGE TO   PHASE IN THE RIGHT SPOT, WHICH SEEMS UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT.   THIS THIRD SCENARIO WOULD PRODUCE SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION FOR   AT LEAST SOME PORTIONS OF THE AREA.    

AT THIS TIME RANGE THOUGH...THAT IS GOING TO BE NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO   NAIL DOWN EXACTLY RIGHT. MONITORING TRENDS IN THE COMING DAYS WILL   BE KEY TO THIS FORECAST, AND RECENT TRENDS HAVE BEEN SNOWIER... SO,   AS THIS GETS CLOSER ON OUR RADAR, HOPEFULLY SOME GOOD SAMPLING FROM   UPPER AIR DATA WILL START TO HELP GUIDANCE CONVERGE ON A COMMON   SOLUTION. FOR NOW, THIS IS JUST SOMETHING TO MONITOR.

when was this dicsussion posted? bc as of now, both EPS and GEPS show a pretty perfect track in terms of how the NS doesn't outpace or get held back and phase with the SS.

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3 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

So to sum it up, the winter storm scenario is the unlikeliest one out of the three. Given how this winter went, the most likely is an early phase, W track, and rain. Maybe we’ll get something different for a change, but not holding my breath. Worth watching to see how this all plays out though. 

Can’t we enjoy ourselves for a few hours

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5 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Yeah it’s not about the destination it’s the journey.  We know when the car runs out of gas.  I’ve seen the Euro flip to shit in one run.  Hundreds of times…thousands 

The problem with this one is absolutely no room for error with temps in the mid 30s.  We need exactly as shown by the euro for any accumulating snow.  If there was any actual cold ahead of the storm it would be less tenuous. 

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4 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

The problem with this one is absolutely no room for error with temps in the mid 30s.  We need exactly as shown by the euro for any accumulating snow.  If there was any actual cold ahead of the storm it would be less tenuous. 

The story of 2022-2023... This is a given!

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WB 12z EPS.  If we don’t get lucky with late week storm the pattern continues to look good for the next/ final window of opportunity in the second to third week of March….buckle up!!!!!  The thrill of victory is only 50 miles away from the agony of defeat with almost every storm.   But it should be emphasized again great EPS run!!!!

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