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March Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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1 minute ago, rjvanals said:

Couple red flags:

1. Source region isn’t as cold this run looking upstream 

2. Looking at soundings hr 150 we’re it looks good on the map but precip would be forming below the DGZ since we’re not very cold at the 700 MB level 

First red flag, it’s day 5+ the end 

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Some seriously perfect timing wrt to the NS energy overtop. Not too behind like the GFS to tug it NW, or out in front. Just right to let it track underneath, with enough space to not dampen the wave. Not very cold, but the thermals are likely going to be an issue for this period.

All about the rates. This can go either way right now. Would absolutely love if the EPS comes in like cmc ensembles.


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35 minutes ago, rjvanals said:

Couple red flags:

1. Source region isn’t as cold this run looking upstream 

2. Looking at soundings hr 150 we’re it looks good on the map but precip would be forming below the DGZ since we’re not very cold at the 700 MB level 

You’re worried about the DGZ on a day 7 prog?  

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