stormtracker Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Bring us home with the GFS Randy. We're waiting around the Roulette table awaiting you to spin the wheel. All chips are in...lfg! I'm on it, but in dual mode. Making breakfast for 2 grown ass men and model watching 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 4 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: The NAO-50/50 combo squash the system on the ICON. Alas, tis but the ICON but also signaling the fear I saw in this setup. Onto the GooFuS. That's not what's happening though. There is a parade of vorts across Canada being spit off from the massive trough digging out west again. The one over Hudson Bay is spinning off vorticity lobes. With all this chaos, odds are the NS is going to destructively interact with the southern shortwave in some form- whether tugging it too far NW or dropping the hammer on top. The 0z Euro has the case where all that junk is cleared out and consolidates into a 50-50 with HP behind it. That would work. It probably won't hold either. This isn't a classic NAO block set up at this point, and it is being hindered by the hostile Pacific. As PSU said, lots of timing and luck needed for this to work out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Ok, so heights are slightly lower out in front so far. at 126 vs 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Cold push is definitely further south and east vs 6z so far...I;m at 132 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 So, its definitely going to be slightly less amp'd than 6z, but doesn't look like enough to save us, but the coldl push is def souther than 6z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 5 minutes ago, CAPE said: That not what's happening though. There is a parade of vorts across Canada being spit off from the massive trough digging out west again. The one over Hudson Bay is spinning off vorticity lobes. With all this chaos, odds are the NS is going to destructively interact with the southern shortwave in some form- whether tugging it too far NW or dropping the hammer on top. The 0z Euro has the case where all that junk is cleared out and consolidates into a 50-50 with HP behind it. That would work. It probably won't hold either. This isn't a classic NAO block set up at this point, and it is being hindered by the hostile Pacific. As PSU said, lots of timing and luck needed for this to work out While what you are saying is valid and true, the areas I circled are the dipole mechanisms responsible for the suppressed look. That dipole catalyst gets there by the factors that you noted. They are interconnected. But saying "that is not what's happening" is a false presumption: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Just now, stormtracker said: So, its definitely going to be slightly less amp'd than 6z, but doesn't look like enough to save us, but the coldl push is def souther than 6z Baby steps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Result is gonna be the same it looks like with a low in fucking KY moving from SW to NE through extreme Western MD. Ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Now the low somehow moves due east from W MD to over our area. Suffice it to say, it's all rain. Basically matches 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Now the low somehow moves due east from W MD to over our area. Suffice it to say, it's all rain. Basically matches 6zDoes it really matter till dr no runs?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Just now, Ji said: Does it really matter till dr no runs? . I gave him that name for a reason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 I would consider this a general improvement to the height field over SE Canada. OP runs gonna OP run this cuts because the GFS phases with the NS vort in MN/IA. if that vort kicks ahead and interacts with the ULL in SE Canada, this would be much farther S. really no way to tell with that kind of stuff at this range 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 I gave him that name for a reasonThe worst solution will usually win. The doctor will probably cave again to the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 1 minute ago, Ji said: The worst solution will usually win. The doctor will probably cave again to the gfs I'm expecting it. Just a little delay between the GFS and the cave. GFS was suppressed and destroyed us, now the Euro is while the GFS is now screwing us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: While what you are saying is valid and true, the areas I circled are the dipole mechanisms responsible for the suppressed look. That dipole catalyst gets there by the factors that you noted. They are interconnected. But saying "that is not what's happening" is a false presumption: The block (ridge and 50-50) is just getting established there. But if it makes you feel better, sure it's the NAO. At least you have something tangible to point to for your suppression fears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 CMC miss south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 CMC miss south.Somehow all the moisture misses us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Somehow all the moisture misses us.Can’t even get a flurry from this?. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Just now, Ji said: Somehow all the moisture misses us . Dr. No will cave, I'm certain of it, I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 i'm liking where we're at rn - seems like with every single storm this year the CMC/EURO/ICON camp wins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 1 minute ago, AtlanticWx said: i'm liking where we're at rn - seems like with every single storm this year the CMC/EURO/ICON camp wins Funny to see the gfs op even more N and W tho. Again, a GFS/CMCish blend could work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 2 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Dr. No will cave, I'm certain of it, I guess It's all random wave interactions and timing. Has to work out just right for our dreams to come true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Look at how warm the N. Hemisphere pattern is.. near Greenland/Davis straight a lot of times these latitude disproportionates even out in time/future model runs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 improvement on the GEFS... lower heights out ahead of the trough and in SE Canada. should be colder 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 25 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Dr. No will cave, I'm certain of it, I guess Absolutely. If not I buy you a bottle of knob creek 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 The vortex over Hudson, which was ejected from the digging trough out west as the Aleutian ridge reamplifies, is a primary 'issue' and will influence the outcome. The 0z Euro phases it into the low off the Maritimes, creating a consolidated 50-50 low. It is the only run lately that gets that vorticity into a position where it won't negatively impact the southern shortwave. On the GFS that energy tries to phase in behind, and tugs the low NW. The CMC and ICON have that vorticity shifting east towards the Maritimes, so it is just out in front of the southern wave a bit and interferes by placing it in the wake. Imo the 0z EURO idea would probably work- get that energy eastward into the 50-50 space sooner. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: The vortex over Hudson, which was ejected from the digging trough out west as the Aleutian ridge is reamplifying, is a primary 'issue' and will influence the outcome. The 0z Euro phases it into the low off the Maritimes, creating a consolidated 50-50 low. It is the only run lately that gets that vorticity into a position where it won't negatively impact the southern shortwave. On the GFS that energy tries to phase in behind, and tugs the low NW. The CMC and ICON have that vorticity shifting east towards the Maritimes, so it is just out in front of the southern wave a bit and interferes by placing it in the wake. Imo the 0z EURO idea would probably work- get that energy eastward into the 50-50 space sooner. We have been blasting the Pacific when/as soon as the NAO goes negative, since 2019. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 34 minutes ago, CAPE said: The block (ridge and 50-50) is just getting established there. Getting established, being established, or relaxing....either way it has an impact if the components are in play irregardless of developing or waning. The suppressed CMC has the same NAO-50/50 look. I think we are pretty much disagreeing on different functions of the pattern where both are a function of one another....the chicken or the egg argument. In any event it would be cool to see the SER/WAR feature actually be a saving grace for once this season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 definitely better. not great, but a big improvement. definitely more similar to 00z than 06z 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 13 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Getting established, being established, or relaxing....either way it has an impact if the components are in play irregardless of developing or waning. The suppressed CMC has the same NAO-50/50 look. I think we are pretty much disagreeing on different functions of the pattern where both are a function of one another....the chicken or the egg argument. In any event it would be cool to see the SER/WAR feature actually be a saving grace for once this season See my previous post. Too broad-brush to say the 'NAO/50-50' are causing suppression, when it is really the timing/location of a specific piece of energy associated with what's going out west that is the primary problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts