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March Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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4 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

The NAO-50/50 combo squash the system on the ICON. Alas, tis but the ICON but also signaling the fear I saw in this setup. Onto the GooFuS.

That's not what's happening though. There is a parade of vorts across Canada being spit off from the massive trough digging out west again. The one over Hudson Bay is spinning off vorticity lobes. With all this chaos, odds are the NS is going to destructively interact with the southern shortwave in some form- whether tugging it too far NW or dropping the hammer on top. The 0z Euro has the case where all that junk is cleared out and consolidates into a 50-50 with HP behind it. That would work. It probably won't hold either. This isn't a classic NAO block set up at this point, and it is being hindered by the hostile Pacific. As PSU said, lots of timing and luck needed for this to work out

1677823200-DfGvNj9Ebsc.png

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5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

That not what's happening though. There is a parade of vorts across Canada being spit off from the massive trough digging out west again. The one over Hudson Bay is spinning off vorticity lobes. With all this chaos, odds are the NS is going to destructively interact with the southern shortwave in some form- whether tugging it too far NW or dropping the hammer on top. The 0z Euro has the case where all that junk is cleared out and consolidates into a 50-50 with HP behind it. That would work. It probably won't hold either. This isn't a classic NAO block set up at this point, and it is being hindered by the hostile Pacific. As PSU said, lots of timing and luck needed for this to work out

1677823200-DfGvNj9Ebsc.png

While what you are saying is valid and true, the areas I circled are the dipole mechanisms responsible for the suppressed look. That dipole catalyst gets there by the factors that you noted. They are interconnected. But saying "that is not what's happening" is a false presumption:

icon_z500_vort_namer_55.png

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I would consider this a general improvement to the height field over SE Canada. OP runs gonna OP run

this cuts because the GFS phases with the NS vort in MN/IA. if that vort kicks ahead and interacts with the ULL in SE Canada, this would be much farther S. really no way to tell with that kind of stuff at this range

gfs_z500_vort_us_fh138_trend.thumb.gif.6b8ad091366130c68ffa27a99598d1da.gif

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5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

While what you are saying is valid and true, the areas I circled are the dipole mechanisms responsible for the suppressed look. That dipole catalyst gets there by the factors that you noted. They are interconnected. But saying "that is not what's happening" is a false presumption:

icon_z500_vort_namer_55.png

The block (ridge and 50-50) is just getting established there. But if it makes you feel better, sure it's the NAO. At least you have something tangible to point to for your suppression fears.

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The vortex over Hudson, which was ejected from the digging trough out west as the Aleutian ridge reamplifies, is a primary 'issue' and will influence the outcome. The 0z Euro phases it into the low off the Maritimes, creating a consolidated 50-50 low. It is the only run lately that gets that vorticity into a position where it won't negatively impact the southern shortwave. On the GFS that energy tries to phase in behind, and tugs the low NW. The CMC and ICON have that vorticity shifting east towards the Maritimes, so it is just out in front of the southern wave a bit and interferes by placing it in the wake. Imo the 0z EURO idea would probably work- get that energy eastward into the 50-50 space sooner.

1677866400-FZhBQ4DE8Ns.png

1677812400-OzCt2JdtwL0.png

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2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The vortex over Hudson, which was ejected from the digging trough out west as the Aleutian ridge is reamplifying, is a primary 'issue' and will influence the outcome. The 0z Euro phases it into the low off the Maritimes, creating a consolidated 50-50 low. It is the only run lately that gets that vorticity into a position where it won't negatively impact the southern shortwave. On the GFS that energy tries to phase in behind, and tugs the low NW. The CMC and ICON have that vorticity shifting east towards the Maritimes, so it is just out in front of the southern wave a bit and interferes by placing it in the wake. Imo the 0z EURO idea would probably work- get that energy eastward into the 50-50 space sooner.

We have been blasting the Pacific when/as soon as the NAO goes negative, since 2019. 

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34 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The block (ridge and 50-50) is just getting established there.

Getting established, being established, or relaxing....either way it has an impact if the components are in play irregardless of developing or waning. The suppressed CMC has the same NAO-50/50 look.gem_z500a_namer_25.thumb.png.e96b9de9f082f8ede7a055e5e7943119.png

 

I think we are pretty much disagreeing on different functions of the pattern where both are a function of one another....the chicken or the egg argument. In any event it would be cool to see the SER/WAR feature actually be a saving grace for once this season

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13 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Getting established, being established, or relaxing....either way it has an impact if the components are in play irregardless of developing or waning. The suppressed CMC has the same NAO-50/50 look.gem_z500a_namer_25.thumb.png.e96b9de9f082f8ede7a055e5e7943119.png

 

I think we are pretty much disagreeing on different functions of the pattern where both are a function of one another....the chicken or the egg argument. In any event it would be cool to see the SER/WAR feature actually be a saving grace for once this season

See my previous post. Too broad-brush to say the 'NAO/50-50' are causing suppression, when it is really the timing/location of a specific piece of energy associated with what's going out west that is the primary problem.

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