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March Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

GEFS is stronger with the NW low and lost all of the S and E clustering. Strong signal again for a low to the N and W...at least of the major cities in our regions. Damn this model is stubborn asf. When it gets an idea it really holds onto it.

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_eus_28.png

It's an outlier right now

It's even an outlier with the 1st storm .

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8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

GEFS is stronger with the NW low and lost all of the S and E clustering. Strong signal again for a low to the N and W...at least of the major cities in our regions. Damn this model is stubborn asf. When it gets an idea it really holds onto it.

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_eus_28.png

seems to me like it's being inconsistent. it flip-flopped between 18, 00, and 06z. doesn't inspire much confidence, IMO

I can guarantee if the OP is less amped at 12z it will follow lock-step. it's not a good ensemble for illustrating spread. the EPS is easily the best for that. not to say that it's wrong or anything... we can get an inland runner, but it's just been making big shifts on a whim

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8 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

seems to me like it's being inconsistent. it flip-flopped between 18, 00, and 06z. doesn't inspire much confidence, IMO

I can guarantee if the OP is less amped at 12z it will follow lock-step. it's not a good ensemble for illustrating spread. the EPS is easily the best for that. not to say that it's wrong or anything... we can get an inland runner, but it's just been making big shifts on a whim

I don't buy it, just saying it's stubborn. Also I've been saying since we began tracking this I didn't think a NW or cutter was our way of failing. Always feared a suppressed system wrt my region anyway. 

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7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I don't buy it, just saying it's stubborn. Also I've been saying since we began tracking this I didn't think a NW or cutter was our way of failing. Always feared a suppressed system wrt my region anyway. 

Outside of a flat/weak strung out wave sliding ots, a healthy wave being 'suppressed' south is the last thing we have had to be concerned about this winter. Could it happen? Sure. We fail prolifically in every way possible. But in a winter where we have seen literally nothing but storms cutting NW, it seems odd to worry over congrats NC.

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10 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Outside of a flat/weak strung out wave sliding ots, a healthy wave being 'suppressed' south is the last thing we have had to be concerned about this winter. Could it happen? Sure. We fail prolifically in every way possible. But in a winter where we have seen literally nothing but storms cutting NW, it seems odd to worry over congrats NC.

I follow ya, but the h5 also isn't necessarily supportive of a cutter. And subsequently if there is no NS interaction that wave is going to slide by to the South of us...suppressed. So I could see Southern parts of your sub getting on the board while Northern sections continue to wallow in misery. Let's hope the Euro is onto something and starting to take the lead tho. 

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7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I follow ya, but the h5 also isn't necessarily supportive of a cutter. And subsequently if there is no NS interaction that wave is going to slide by to the South of us...suppressed. So I could see Southern parts of your sub getting on the board while Northern sections continue to wallow in misery. Let's hope the Euro is onto something and starting to take the lead tho. 

Getting 'constructive' NS interaction in this pattern won't be easy. Check the PNA lately? The Pacific remains horrific for our purposes. It's effing snowing at relatively low elevations in S CA. The NAO is basically just giving us some semblance of a chance here.

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10 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Looking ahead to Chuck's window/our Hail Mary period, pretty nice h5 look on the EPS. Anomalously cold too.

1678579200-RPevI6Xwg6k.png

yeah, climo won't matter as much when you have cross-polar flow like that. you can snow until the 20th to the coast with that look. the 10-20th period does look very good, but we'll see if we can cash in on the 4th beforehand. tons of time to go

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11 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Looking ahead to Chuck's window/our Hail Mary period, pretty nice h5 look on the EPS. Anomalously cold too.

1678579200-RPevI6Xwg6k.png

I co-sign.  I know no one wants to be patient when it’s almost March and we are starving.  I want snow right now too. But that period makes sense given the progression.  The retrograding block will eventually link with the pac ridge and once that happens it will apply enough pressure on the mid latitude flow that the thermals will start to press further and further southeast. 
 

This is a typical progression when a blocking regime begins after a very hostile temperature regime. Blocking started early Jan 2016 but took weeks to get the thermals right.  Took about 7-10 days after the block in 2018 before we were cold enough. Jan 2021 had great blocking but it wasn’t until early Feb that we had our best chances for snow.  
 

If it’s already cold (as if that’s ever true anymore) we can snap right into a snowy regime with a block but when we’re coming from a hostile thermal regime it usually takes time. 

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10 minutes ago, Interstate said:

Why not. Every other storm has cut. 

Not every one....that's an absolute statement. There were a few in Dec during the other -NAO/-PNA phase that either took good tracks but rained or ended up squashed under us due to the flow. This setup also has a 50/50 low which subsequent convergent flow *could* actually do more harm than good with a relatively flat longwave pattern across the eastern 2/3 of the country. Of course you have associate trof with the sw but overall things are moving right along. It's all a balancing act. The WAR/SER could help us here...we need some pushback given the lw flow and the dipole NAO-50/50 signal. Otherwise we get the squashed/suppressed/southern solutions. This one can work with the right timing...going to take the right mix of ingredients tho. A blend of the CMC and GFS could work.

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15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Not say on the day 7 thing has I shot. Just that will need a lot of luck. I don’t see it as a high probability event. I could see us get a high probability setup later. That’s all. But luck is the biggest variable in all this. 

This^^^....not your most usual eloquently worded disco but perfect for layman's terms.

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1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

Chuck was right about march 9-19 (so far). I pay attention to all of his posts…

I honesty think he is the most underrated and probably most improved poster on the board....when he stays on point and isn't just spewing off analog after analog etc. When he uses his own research to develop one solid solution, he is truly on-point. I know many won't agree but iykyk

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58 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I honesty think he is the most underrated and probably most improved poster on the board....when he stays on point and isn't just spewing off analog after analog etc. When he uses his own research to develop one solid solution, he is truly on-point. I know many won't agree but iykyk

Back on the early days of Eastern, he was very well-respected.

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