MJO812 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: GEFS is stronger with the NW low and lost all of the S and E clustering. Strong signal again for a low to the N and W...at least of the major cities in our regions. Damn this model is stubborn asf. When it gets an idea it really holds onto it. It's an outlier right now It's even an outlier with the 1st storm . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: GEFS is stronger with the NW low and lost all of the S and E clustering. Strong signal again for a low to the N and W...at least of the major cities in our regions. Damn this model is stubborn asf. When it gets an idea it really holds onto it. seems to me like it's being inconsistent. it flip-flopped between 18, 00, and 06z. doesn't inspire much confidence, IMO I can guarantee if the OP is less amped at 12z it will follow lock-step. it's not a good ensemble for illustrating spread. the EPS is easily the best for that. not to say that it's wrong or anything... we can get an inland runner, but it's just been making big shifts on a whim 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 8 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: seems to me like it's being inconsistent. it flip-flopped between 18, 00, and 06z. doesn't inspire much confidence, IMO I can guarantee if the OP is less amped at 12z it will follow lock-step. it's not a good ensemble for illustrating spread. the EPS is easily the best for that. not to say that it's wrong or anything... we can get an inland runner, but it's just been making big shifts on a whim I don't buy it, just saying it's stubborn. Also I've been saying since we began tracking this I didn't think a NW or cutter was our way of failing. Always feared a suppressed system wrt my region anyway. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I don't buy it, just saying it's stubborn. Also I've been saying since we began tracking this I didn't think a NW or cutter was our way of failing. Always feared a suppressed system wrt my region anyway. Outside of a flat/weak strung out wave sliding ots, a healthy wave being 'suppressed' south is the last thing we have had to be concerned about this winter. Could it happen? Sure. We fail prolifically in every way possible. But in a winter where we have seen literally nothing but storms cutting NW, it seems odd to worry over congrats NC. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 10 minutes ago, CAPE said: Outside of a flat/weak strung out wave sliding ots, a healthy wave being 'suppressed' south is the last thing we have had to be concerned about this winter. Could it happen? Sure. We fail prolifically in every way possible. But in a winter where we have seen literally nothing but storms cutting NW, it seems odd to worry over congrats NC. I follow ya, but the h5 also isn't necessarily supportive of a cutter. And subsequently if there is no NS interaction that wave is going to slide by to the South of us...suppressed. So I could see Southern parts of your sub getting on the board while Northern sections continue to wallow in misery. Let's hope the Euro is onto something and starting to take the lead tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I follow ya, but the h5 also isn't necessarily supportive of a cutter. And subsequently if there is no NS interaction that wave is going to slide by to the South of us...suppressed. So I could see Southern parts of your sub getting on the board while Northern sections continue to wallow in misery. Let's hope the Euro is onto something and starting to take the lead tho. Getting 'constructive' NS interaction in this pattern won't be easy. Check the PNA lately? The Pacific remains horrific for our purposes. It's effing snowing at relatively low elevations in S CA. The NAO is basically just giving us some semblance of a chance here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 This is NS interaction in this pattern. Given the outcome now isn't good for our area, not sure more interaction/phase from that location would work out any better for our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Looking ahead to Chuck's window/our Hail Mary period, pretty nice h5 look on the EPS. Anomalously cold too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 10 minutes ago, CAPE said: Looking ahead to Chuck's window/our Hail Mary period, pretty nice h5 look on the EPS. Anomalously cold too. yeah, climo won't matter as much when you have cross-polar flow like that. you can snow until the 20th to the coast with that look. the 10-20th period does look very good, but we'll see if we can cash in on the 4th beforehand. tons of time to go 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 11 minutes ago, CAPE said: Looking ahead to Chuck's window/our Hail Mary period, pretty nice h5 look on the EPS. Anomalously cold too. I co-sign. I know no one wants to be patient when it’s almost March and we are starving. I want snow right now too. But that period makes sense given the progression. The retrograding block will eventually link with the pac ridge and once that happens it will apply enough pressure on the mid latitude flow that the thermals will start to press further and further southeast. This is a typical progression when a blocking regime begins after a very hostile temperature regime. Blocking started early Jan 2016 but took weeks to get the thermals right. Took about 7-10 days after the block in 2018 before we were cold enough. Jan 2021 had great blocking but it wasn’t until early Feb that we had our best chances for snow. If it’s already cold (as if that’s ever true anymore) we can snap right into a snowy regime with a block but when we’re coming from a hostile thermal regime it usually takes time. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Not saying the day 7 thing has no shot. Just that will need a lot of luck. I don’t see it as a high probability event. I could see us get a high probability setup later. That’s all. But luck is the biggest variable in all this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I don't buy it, just saying it's stubborn. Also I've been saying since we began tracking this I didn't think a NW or cutter was our way of failing. Always feared a suppressed system wrt my region anyway. Why not. Every other storm has cut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 10 minutes ago, Interstate said: Why not. Every other storm has cut. Not every one....that's an absolute statement. There were a few in Dec during the other -NAO/-PNA phase that either took good tracks but rained or ended up squashed under us due to the flow. This setup also has a 50/50 low which subsequent convergent flow *could* actually do more harm than good with a relatively flat longwave pattern across the eastern 2/3 of the country. Of course you have associate trof with the sw but overall things are moving right along. It's all a balancing act. The WAR/SER could help us here...we need some pushback given the lw flow and the dipole NAO-50/50 signal. Otherwise we get the squashed/suppressed/southern solutions. This one can work with the right timing...going to take the right mix of ingredients tho. A blend of the CMC and GFS could work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Not say on the day 7 thing has I shot. Just that will need a lot of luck. I don’t see it as a high probability event. I could see us get a high probability setup later. That’s all. But luck is the biggest variable in all this. This^^^....not your most usual eloquently worded disco but perfect for layman's terms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 38 minutes ago, CAPE said: Looking ahead to Chuck's window/our Hail Mary period, pretty nice h5 look on the EPS. Anomalously cold too. STJ pineapple express headed directly into/over an anomalously cold airmass already in place. What could possibly fail here? Don't answer that. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: STJ pineapple express headed directly into/over an anomalously cold airmass already in place. What could possibly fail here? Don't answer that. Chuck was right about march 9-19 (so far). I pay attention to all of his posts… 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: Chuck was right about march 9-19 (so far). I pay attention to all of his posts… I honesty think he is the most underrated and probably most improved poster on the board....when he stays on point and isn't just spewing off analog after analog etc. When he uses his own research to develop one solid solution, he is truly on-point. I know many won't agree but iykyk 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: STJ pineapple express headed directly into/over an anomalously cold airmass already in place. What could possibly fail here? Don't answer that. Suppression. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 7 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Chuck was right about march 9-19 (so far). I pay attention to all of his posts… Once you learn to interpret Chuck speak, there is often some good stuff embedded in his posts. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 ICON really holding the energy back out West thru 102. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 58 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I honesty think he is the most underrated and probably most improved poster on the board....when he stays on point and isn't just spewing off analog after analog etc. When he uses his own research to develop one solid solution, he is truly on-point. I know many won't agree but iykyk Back on the early days of Eastern, he was very well-respected. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 1 minute ago, nw baltimore wx said: Back on the early days of Eastern, he was very well-respected. Speaking of very well-respected, anyone heard from @Bob Chill? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 I think I like where the ICON is headed but with the flips and flops it does, it could easily take a bad turn post 120. Looks promising tho thru that hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Speaking of very well-respected, anyone heard from @Bob Chill? It feels like if he doesn't show up then he's likely deemed whatever we're tracking as not worth the time, lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Since we have the new thumbs down emoji can we get the ax through the head emoji? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Nevermind ..icon suppressed and sheared 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: It feels like if he doesn't show up then he's likely deemed whatever we're tracking as not worth the time, lol He will return for the Ides of March...my spidey senses are tingling. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Nevermind ..icon suppressed and sheared And GFS overamped...might not be a bad thing at this stage 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 The NAO-50/50 combo squash the system on the ICON. Alas, tis but the ICON but also signaling the fear I saw in this setup. Onto the GooFuS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: And GFS overamped...might not be a bad thing at this stage Bring us home with the GFS Randy. We're waiting around the Roulette table awaiting you to spin the wheel. All chips are in...lfg! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts