Ralph Wiggum Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 GFS vs CMC snowfall: 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: CMC: Right where we want it honestly. I don't trust the GFS. Look how it's handled this storm for 28th up here. Slowly trending towards euro,cmc,rgem 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Expecting models to be correct this far out? Seriously? Not exactly. But the divergence among the camps is comical tbh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 1 minute ago, Franklin0529 said: Right where we want it honestly. I don't trust the GFS. Look how it's handled this storm for 28th up here. Slowly trending towards euro,cmc,rgem If the GFS vs others could meet in the middle we would be celebrating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Cmc and icon suppressed. Like I said with so many waves this is unlikely to be correctly depicted on any given run. But it’s a long shot Imo. Needs perfect timing and has no margin for error with marginal cold at best. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 I’m supposed to be going to a surprise party in Scotia NY on march 4th. As much as I’d like to enjoy the storm up there, not sure I want to drive in an upstate NY blizzard. FML. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Euro looks better than gfs so far at 144. Let's see if suppressed Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 2 minutes ago, Ji said: Euro looks better than gfs so far at 144. Let's see if suppressed Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Looks nice. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Looks nice. Yes sir....euro actually has a storm now lol so that's good and even better it's in cmc icon camp Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 I'd take a compromise between euro and gfsSent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 WB 0Z Euro 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 WB 0Z Euro Euro is all southern stream...nothing to really bring it up...Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 WB 0Z GEFS was an improvement over 18Z. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 WB 0Z GEFS snow maps, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 WB 0Z GEFS was an improvement over 18Z.I noticed that...and geps were pretty good tooSent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 WB 0Z GEFS snow maps, P30 - DC to BOS special for good karma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Euro made a huge move in our direction. If the euro still looks this way 00z Monday with other guidance (ICON CMC) still showing snow to our south, color me interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 24 hour accumulated precip. 12z v 0z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Kinda funny that the GFS and EURO basically switched places today/tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 2 minutes ago, yoda said: Kinda funny that the GFS and EURO basically switched places today/tonight There was a time when all we needed was a good Euro run to feel good about things. But this was a big move in a short time…not typical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 29 minutes ago, BristowWx said: There was a time when all we needed was a good Euro run to feel good about things. But this was a big move in a short time…not typical. The lack of Northern stream interaction and lack of cold air is concerning even with a track like the Euro. I suppose it could happen especially at night but we are tightrope walking yet again. Interact jets and you pump heights out ahead and need a much farther S track. No interaction and rely on established cold air which means you need the slp to track farther N. Never easy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 LWX has a really good discussion this morning about late next week in their morning AFD Beyond Wednesday, model guidance begins to diverge substantially. The synoptic scale pattern is a very complex one, as the aforementioned system from Wednesday will be lifting off toward the northeast. Meanwhile, a deep trough will reside over the western US, as a strong ridgebuilding event simultaneously occurs in the eastern Pacific. Further to our north, an upper low will circulate over Hudson Bay, with Wednesday`s system passing to its south. The highly complex interactions between all of these features are leading to a high amount of uncertainty in the forecast for both Thursday and Friday. The main uncertainty on Thursday is how much cold advection ensues behind the departing system from Wednesday. Forecast high temperatures in the GEFS and EPS on Thursday range from the 40s to near 70. There may be some showers around, especially during the morning hours, but there should be a trend toward drier condtions during the afternoon as any cold advection starts to occur. The forecast on Friday is even more uncertain. The strong ridgebuilding in the eastern Pacific on Wednesday into Thursday will have a tendency to build overtop the western US trough, potentially leading to an anticylonic wavebreak and the southern portion of the western US trough fracturing off into more of a southern stream closed low. With such a complex interaction occurring, the guidance is all over the place. Temperatures in both the EPS and GEFS range from the 30s to the 70s on Friday. Most guidance does have the southern portion of the western US trough (whether in the form of a closed low, or a a continual trough) turning into quite the potent system, and leading to a strong cyclogenesis event. Most solutions have this strong low tracking toward the area late Friday into Friday night. Potential solutions range from this low tracking to our northwest, and having thunderstorms, to the low tracking well to our south and missing us. Some solutions also produce a snowstorm. This system could potentially be a high impact weather event, so we`ll need to keep an eye on it over the upcoming week. At the moment though, uncertainty remains high, with many different solutions still on the table. 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 They could have saved a lot of words and just said “Long term no freakin idea stay tuned! 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: The lack of Northern stream interaction and lack of cold air is concerning even with a track like the Euro. I suppose it could happen especially at night but we are tightrope walking yet again. Interact jets and you pump heights out ahead and need a much farther S track. No interaction and rely on established cold air which means you need the slp to track farther N. Never easy. The 0z Euro improved in just about every way. One thing I have not liked overall on guidance is too many vortices flying around across Canada, with a lack of high pressure from the GLs into eastern Canada. The 0z Euro depicts a more distinct NAO block and a well defined 50-50 low, and finally some HP showing up in eastern Canada aided by the converging/confluent flow into the 50-50 vortex. Ofc there is also a stronger, more distinct southern shortwave this run. Much better look up top aloft and at the surface. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Verbatim the 0z EPS looks pretty good for the NW burbs. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Still things to work out but if the EURO and GFS meet in the middle….WB 6Z GFS compared to 0Z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 6 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: GFS vs CMC snowfall: Meet in the middle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Mjo?Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Look at the difference between the 0z Euro and 6z GFS at h5 in southern Canada. Most of the energy in that vortex over the southern tip of Hudson Bay phases in to the developing 50-50 low on the Euro, while on the GFS it stays there and does us no favors. CMC gets it out of the way somewhat differently, with some of it getting absorbed into the trough digging southward in western Canada, and the rest of the energy shifts into the 50-50 location. Ends up with a similar look to the Euro up top. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 GEFS is stronger with the NW low and lost all of the S and E clustering. Strong signal again for a low to the N and W...at least of the major cities in our regions. Damn this model is stubborn asf. When it gets an idea it really holds onto it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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