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March Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I have snow at 168

I got it being 50 degrees at DCA at 162 - at 168 the only place its snowing is right in the middle of the heaviest stuff in SE VA/ENC. Prob not worth parsing the details but I'm not seeing anything other than rain

FWIW Pivotal maps are rain too - it's light stuff

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1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I got it being 50 degrees at DCA at 162 - at 168 the only place its snowing is right in the middle of the heaviest stuff in SE VA/ENC. Prob not worth parsing the details but I'm not seeing anything other than rain

FWIW Pivotal maps are rain too - it's light stuff

Pathetic given the track. 

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2 hours ago, BristowWx said:

its a good run if you don't live where we do...how often do we see potential apps runners go back to an earlier more favorable solution on the GFS....something to ponder...toggling back to earlier runs the good ones had better separation colder thermals.  on to HH indeed or at least 1330 for Euro

Maybe we score, seems like our best chance this winter 

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1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

snowfall mean definitely better than 0z... but temps are not good.image.thumb.gif.e4b4a323dcc4b021b533156f5a0b645b.gif

the thing with ensemble mean temps is that much of the members that show snow will probably be between 28 - 34, but the ones that cut and show rain can be like 50 - 60 degrees, so temps are prone to being skewed high. the 500mb and track of the SLPs looked great, though

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Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

the thing with ensemble mean temps is that much of the members that show snow will probably be between 28 - 34, but the ones that cut and show rain can be like 50 - 60 degrees, so temps are prone to being skewed high. the 500mb and track of the SLPs looked great, though

while true, a big problem is that there just weren't a lot of snowy members here. This is pretty pathetic

1677909600-rCKTKgHx1fc.png

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1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I got it being 50 degrees at DCA at 162 - at 168 the only place its snowing is right in the middle of the heaviest stuff in SE VA/ENC. Prob not worth parsing the details but I'm not seeing anything other than rain

FWIW Pivotal maps are rain too - it's light stuff

As with everything we have tracked this winter simply put it is going to be too warm, there really ain’t any cold to speak of in the entire conus in the lead up to this storm. 

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24 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I actually agree with Chuck 

Nice cross-polar anomaly ridge.. -EPO, +PNA, west-based -NAO, active STJ. All good but the heavy -PNA next 10 days does still render the forward pattern a little weak.. We have been over-initializing current conditions to the models full run so let's see what happens as we get closer.. right now I like it. 50/50 low

f312.thumb.gif.7cfe339f0879ee2b748a10772eb17100.gif

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