Ralph Wiggum Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 Just now, stormtracker said: I have snow at 168 We take Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I have snow at 168 I got it being 50 degrees at DCA at 162 - at 168 the only place its snowing is right in the middle of the heaviest stuff in SE VA/ENC. Prob not worth parsing the details but I'm not seeing anything other than rain FWIW Pivotal maps are rain too - it's light stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: I got it being 50 degrees at DCA at 162 - at 168 the only place its snowing is right in the middle of the heaviest stuff in SE VA/ENC. Prob not worth parsing the details but I'm not seeing anything other than rain FWIW Pivotal maps are rain too - it's light stuff Pathetic given the track. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 24, 2023 Author Share Posted February 24, 2023 Doubt the euro upper level pattern has ever led to too many good snowstorms here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 2 hours ago, BristowWx said: its a good run if you don't live where we do...how often do we see potential apps runners go back to an earlier more favorable solution on the GFS....something to ponder...toggling back to earlier runs the good ones had better separation colder thermals. on to HH indeed or at least 1330 for Euro Maybe we score, seems like our best chance this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: I like it. We're sticking to a wetter STJ as the pattern probably changes. Like the March 9-19 window. You definitely see more cold air in the pattern continuing to grow in the later part of the ensemble period. WB 12Z GEFS. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 3 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: I like it. We're sticking to a wetter STJ as the pattern probably changes. Like the March 9-19 window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 6 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: I like it. We're sticking to a wetter STJ as the pattern probably changes. Like the March 9-19 window. You've been all over this window. Bring it home Chuck. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 Don't worry guys, the Euro ensembles will save us 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 this is pretty nice for the 4th. the initial wave establishes some confluence over the NE so that it's harder for the main wave to cut 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 main wave tracks underneath. should look good snowfall wise and temp wise. absolute ton of moisture with this thing as well 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: main wave tracks underneath. should look good snowfall wise and temp wise snowfall mean definitely better than 0z... but temps are not good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: main wave tracks underneath. should look good snowfall wise and temp wise. absolute ton of moisture with this thing as well Pretty warm. Would be close for the NW burbs verbatim. Better in the highlands and up in PA. Good enough at this range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: snowfall mean definitely better than 0z... but temps are not good. the thing with ensemble mean temps is that much of the members that show snow will probably be between 28 - 34, but the ones that cut and show rain can be like 50 - 60 degrees, so temps are prone to being skewed high. the 500mb and track of the SLPs looked great, though 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 Just now, brooklynwx99 said: the thing with ensemble mean temps is that much of the members that show snow will probably be between 28 - 34, but the ones that cut and show rain can be like 50 - 60 degrees, so temps are prone to being skewed high. the 500mb and track of the SLPs looked great, though while true, a big problem is that there just weren't a lot of snowy members here. This is pretty pathetic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said: I got it being 50 degrees at DCA at 162 - at 168 the only place its snowing is right in the middle of the heaviest stuff in SE VA/ENC. Prob not worth parsing the details but I'm not seeing anything other than rain FWIW Pivotal maps are rain too - it's light stuff As with everything we have tracked this winter simply put it is going to be too warm, there really ain’t any cold to speak of in the entire conus in the lead up to this storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 45 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: I like it. We're sticking to a wetter STJ as the pattern probably changes. Like the March 9-19 window. I actually agree with Chuck 11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 24 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I actually agree with Chuck Nice cross-polar anomaly ridge.. -EPO, +PNA, west-based -NAO, active STJ. All good but the heavy -PNA next 10 days does still render the forward pattern a little weak.. We have been over-initializing current conditions to the models full run so let's see what happens as we get closer.. right now I like it. 50/50 low 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
katabatic Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: I like it. We're sticking to a wetter STJ as the pattern probably changes. Like the March 9-19 window. A very hopeful 3-4 week disco from CPC along with their revised maps showing well BN temps throughout most of the country supports this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 30 minutes ago, pazzo83 said: Now when things like this happen, I have difficulty distinguishing between something that's an anomaly vs a symptom of other things. Any thoughts on which category this would fall under? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 55 minutes ago, pazzo83 said: SER eyeing the polar airmass.... 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 HH, who’s got PBP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 5 minutes ago, Solution Man said: HH, who’s got PBP 18Z not on WB yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 Just now, IronTy said: 18Z not on WB yet. Pivotal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 tracker is AFK so it will have to be someone else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 Let's initialize this <492dm AK vortex. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 Back in time! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Back in time! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 Yoda gave me a thumbs down dammit. I'm crushed. Ok, so far i'm noticing that the trof out west is sharper and a bit further south and west than 12z. One of the mets can tell us if that means anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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