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March Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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18 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i’ll take it. at this range I just wanna see a strong storm consistently showing up

if it was perfect people would be saying “well you don’t wanna be in the bullseye 8 days out” so you can never truly win at this range

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Do you have gut feeling one way  or another?  I mean where you are there is a bit more..more than a bit...of fudge factor allowed to  still get a decent event.  Down here we can go from victory lap to game over in a NY minute. 

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8 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Do you have gut feeling one way  or another?  I mean where you are there is a bit more..more than a bit...of fudge factor allowed to  still get a decent event.  Down here we can go from victory lap to game over in a NY minute. 

Brother you're right.  Today was the definitive beginning of the end for this threat. Just like the others.

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Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

the GEFS actually has lower heights in the E US before the wave arrives, unlike the OP

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Like other threats the op and ens begin to converge or move closer towards one another. Same time frame every system this year. Still have plenty of time for things to move a better direction. Storm still there so there's that.

What are we all drinking for HH?

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2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Like other threats the op and ens begin to converge or move closer towards one another. Same time frame every system this year. Still have plenty of time for things to move a better direction. Storm still there so there's that.

What are we all drinking for HH?

120 for me.  why not...then I won't care...probably be asleep anyway

 

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3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

not gonna lie, the ENS look great so far. the OP runs are cool and all, and their solutions aren’t ridiculous or anything, but the ENS improving holds way more weight at this range

I mean, the ops are close to getting many snow-starved places either on the board or adding a modest amount to seasonal totals. Like you said, not really a bad spot to be at this range. 

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57 minutes ago, mattie g said:

And the Euro went from cutter to a slider in its two most recent runs.

I know right... Everyone Sh!ts on the GFS... but the Euro and just about every other model does wild swing when it is 5+ days.  The only difference is that the Euro goes from one Sh!tty solution to another and the GFS takes away HECS storms.

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