Ralph Wiggum Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 12z gfs that lobe of the pv N of Lake Superior in Canada continues to trend farther W each run. Unsure what implications this will have. Western US trof doesn't seem as deep thru 132 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 Ok, at H5 some changes which might have implications downstreams. Heights are slightly higher out front and that nrn stream wave that we need to be in front isn't as stronger or as far in front as 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 yeah, noticeable less separation between the streams and heights are a bit higher out front. Seems like a step back. We'll see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Ok, at H5 some changes which might have implications downstreams. Heights are slightly higher out front and that nrn stream wave that we need to be in front isn't as stronger or as far in front as 6z Definitely not a colder more suppressed look this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: yeah, noticeable less separation between the streams and heights are a bit higher out front. Seems like a step back. We'll see. CMC doing the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 The HP in Canada is further west on 12z compared to 06z fwiw... so that's also not helping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 Def not as cold as 6z so far. Huge ass blob (again scientific terms here) or heavy moisture back western TN racing the cold air press 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 Sigh, rain at 177 where 6z had frozen. Hvy moisture incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 NAO moving into the favored area alot slower this run. That won't help push the boundary S. Hp pulling NE as opposed to seeping S and E last couple runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 Cold wedge developing in Western MD...they are getting shellacked..cumberland area. Still rain for most of us 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 This run is much faster with the precip...still mostly rain over the area...maybe frozen from upper Mont co north and west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 Don't see a 979 mb bomb over the Apps very often... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 changes to frozen at 189, but with good precip pulling away. Thankfully we're 8 days out! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 CMC is trying but made some adjustments at h5 that weren't very favorable. Close tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 See you at HH 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 snowing at 192 across the area..light to moderate, but about to shut off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 Just now, stormtracker said: changes to frozen at 189, but with good precip pulling away. Thankfully we're 8 days out! Yeah... now it will head to Chicago in the next runs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 You might really need some time for this to clear. This is a very warm pattern. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 We went from a HECS to 1 to 3". Sounds about right 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 So the GFS went from wavy gravy to overamped bomb in 2 runs. K. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: We went from a HECS to 1 to 3". Sounds about right That's what the GFS says we are getting tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 1 minute ago, Solution Man said: See you at HH its a good run if you don't live where we do...how often do we see potential apps runners go back to an earlier more favorable solution on the GFS....something to ponder...toggling back to earlier runs the good ones had better separation colder thermals. on to HH indeed or at least 1330 for Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 Healthy March precip pattern 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 i’ll take it. at this range I just wanna see a strong storm consistently showing up if it was perfect people would be saying “well you don’t wanna be in the bullseye 8 days out” so you can never truly win at this range 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 GGEM basically has a perfect track rainstorm 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: i’ll take it. at this range I just wanna see a strong storm consistently showing up if it was perfect people would be saying “well you don’t wanna be in the bullseye 8 days out” so you can never truly win at this range But, this is the Mid-Atlantic and not Boston! When we see the pull to the north, that rarely, if ever, trends back into a favorable look for us. Debbie Downer here will say, this is the trend of the north and west trend and it is unlikely to improve. Yes, I will look at the ensembles and always have some weenie hope, but this is a repeating theme here all the time! I HOPE I AM WRONG.. And I appreciate the optimism! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 GFS never really establishes an NAO block where as the CMC does then links it to the SER in a full lat ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 After the system there are big-time differences wrt the handling of the HL...GFS vs CMC: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 This is the first storm to track in 2 months which is great, but almost all of the modeling does not give us below normal temps until the week following this storm. And we need well below normal in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 11 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: GGEM basically has a perfect track rainstorm Too late, books full 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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