Ji Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 Just now, CAPE said: We cant afford to toss anything lol. March snow counts, and it is often a better month than December. People hate the quick meting I guess. We can do that efficiently in any month. i only like snow when its on the models, falling and like up to 3 hours after the storm is over lol...im not really into snowcover once the storm is more than a day old Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 3 minutes ago, paulythegun said: This should be a long lasting, sustained event. Really jammed up atlantic will slow the precip progression down to only 150mph I'm going to pretend that's a snow map and send to all my friends who will be coming. Thanks! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: It would be the first best in many places. Temps don't look that hot and its during daylight hours, think the overnight "storm" in Feb. would end up being the winner for a good chunk of folks still. But point taken given how little we've seen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 21, 2023 Author Share Posted February 21, 2023 17 minutes ago, CAPE said: This is big. Perfect summation of our winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 21, 2023 Author Share Posted February 21, 2023 12 minutes ago, Ji said: m not really into snowcover once the storm is more than a day old Good thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 Dr says no at 240Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 6 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Temps don't look that hot and its during daylight hours, think the overnight "storm" in Feb. would end up being the winner for a good chunk of folks still. But point taken given how little we've seen Temps are fine verbatim given how dry the air is. The bigger concern would be weak forcing- might be tough to get more than pixie dust to hit the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 Another 10+ day storm that won’t materialize to look forward to. Joy. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 UKIE has some snow Saturday too 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 47 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @CAPE something interesting to consider as we head into a March where the NAO looks to be cooperative... during the last -PDO cycle from the 1940s through the 1970s we averaged a LOT more snow in March than recently. The avg during that period at BWI was 5" but more importantly was the frequency of absolute monster months and storms being in March. There were definitely more total shutout March months than Jan/Feb even back then...but 7 times BWI had a double digit March month during that last -PDO cycle. And several more times got close with 7-9" March months. There were even two 20" March months...which is something we rarely even get in January or February frankly. Bringing this up because there are a lot of people that seem to want to toss December and March now. Problem is...the same thing I just said about March applies to December...during that last PDO cycle we had quite a few monster Decembers also... if you start acting like we can't get Dec or March snow and tossing those months...well you are tossing what was a big portion of our snow climo during the last -PDO cycle. If we do get blocking, even in March, we need to be able to take advantage of it. We used to be able to. March 1941, 1942, 1943, 1952, 1956, 1958, 1960, 1962, 1964, 1969, 1976 and 1980 were the snowiest months of the whole winter in many places in our region. Those winter's wouldn't have been nearly the same if we just tossed March. March can, and has to be, a very snowy month sometimes if we want to maintain anything close to our "normal" snow climo in this -PDO cycle. I pretty much toss December, though sometimes we can manage some small events there, and expect March to have some chances even if the snow melts away in a day or less. But some of that is probably recency bias because, other than 2009 and a decent event I think in 2013, I can't remember very many December snows, whereas March seems to have been littered with them over the past decade. We've seemingly had some pretty cold March's lately, but that might also be skewed by 13 and 14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Its a Breeze Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 At some point this perpetual cycle of mid-week warm-ups followed by a cool/cold start to the weekend has to stop, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 9 minutes ago, Its a Breeze said: At some point this perpetual cycle of mid-week warm-ups followed by a cool/cold start to the weekend has to stop, right? Hope not...pretty soon that will be a good thing 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 59 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @CAPE something interesting to consider as we head into a March where the NAO looks to be cooperative... during the last -PDO cycle from the 1940s through the 1970s we averaged a LOT more snow in March than recently. The avg during that period at BWI was 5" but more importantly was the frequency of absolute monster months and storms being in March. There were definitely more total shutout March months than Jan/Feb even back then...but 7 times BWI had a double digit March month during that last -PDO cycle. And several more times got close with 7-9" March months. There were even two 20" March months...which is something we rarely even get in January or February frankly. Bringing this up because there are a lot of people that seem to want to toss December and March now. Problem is...the same thing I just said about March applies to December...during that last PDO cycle we had quite a few monster Decembers also... if you start acting like we can't get Dec or March snow and tossing those months...well you are tossing what was a big portion of our snow climo during the last -PDO cycle. If we do get blocking, even in March, we need to be able to take advantage of it. We used to be able to. March 1941, 1942, 1943, 1952, 1956, 1958, 1960, 1962, 1964, 1969, 1976 and 1980 were the snowiest months of the whole winter in many places in our region. Those winter's wouldn't have been nearly the same if we just tossed March. March can, and has to be, a very snowy month sometimes if we want to maintain anything close to our "normal" snow climo in this -PDO cycle. Historically, 20% of large one-day snows (>6") in the Baltimore area have occurred in March or later (ok April 1st). Here they are . 19420329 22.0 18920318 12.0 19930313 11.3 19090304 10.2 19620306 10.0 19600303 10.0 19240401 9.8 19640321 9.7 19310317 8.3 18920310 8.0 19760309 7.8 19070310 6.6 20150305 6.2 19110308 6.2 19520301 6.0 19410307 6.0 19370314 6.0 19340308 6.0 19240311 6.0 19230306 6.0 18960311 6.0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 Ukie and EC both say ‘eh, maybe’ to a 1-2” type event Saturday. Would be rather impressive to pull that off after hitting 75 on Thursday. Also tells you what our chances are of pulling that off. If it’s still there 00z Thursday night, then maybe we can take it seriously. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 March 17th will be our big hit of snow, calling it now. Why? I'm heading to DC for the Blues/Caps game. So naturally, snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 4 minutes ago, dallen7908 said: Historically, 20% of large one-day snows (>6") in the Baltimore area have occurred in March or later (ok April 1st). Here they are . 19420329 22.0 18920318 12.0 19930313 11.3 19090304 10.2 19620306 10.0 19600303 10.0 19240401 9.8 19640321 9.7 19310317 8.3 18920310 8.0 19760309 7.8 19070310 6.6 20150305 6.2 19110308 6.2 19520301 6.0 19410307 6.0 19370314 6.0 19340308 6.0 19240311 6.0 19230306 6.0 18960311 6.0 The fact only 1 of those dates is this century and only 2 in the last 45 years kind of highlights one of 2 possible things...either in the most recent +PDO phase March snow was less likely....(lets hope its that) and now that we are in a -PDO we will resume March snow being a staple....OR...its that thing we aren't supposed to talk about. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 i knew it would fizzle out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 1 hour ago, jayyy said: Ukie and EC both say ‘eh, maybe’ to a 1-2” type event Saturday. Would be rather impressive to pull that off after hitting 75 on Thursday. Also tells you what our chances are of pulling that off. If it’s still there 00z Thursday night, then maybe we can take it seriously. . were not getting 1-2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: The fact only 1 of those dates is this century and only 2 in the last 45 years kind of highlights one of 2 possible things...either in the most recent +PDO phase March snow was less likely....(lets hope its that) and now that we are in a -PDO we will resume March snow being a staple....OR...its that thing we aren't supposed to talk about. when is the -PDO phase over? Feels like we are on year 29 of it 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 The trees are already budding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
batmanbrad Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 25 minutes ago, Ji said: were not getting 1-2 oh yes we are. It's just that we're getting 1-2... snowflakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
batmanbrad Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 4 hours ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Is this the thread for tracking the first 90F day? or maybe for guessing how much earlier than normal the cherry trees will be in full bloom? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 2 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Perfect summation of our winter Is the yellow outline our base state area? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 I’d ask y’all why keep doing this to yourself, but yet here I am still following the discussion (although I am sitting on porch with corona in hand pretending it’s May) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 Watch it will snow on Easter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 1 hour ago, Ji said: when is the -PDO phase over? Feels like we are on year 29 of it I'd like to know why in the world a cycle I'm weather lasts so long! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 HH GFS looking good at 10 day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 18z gfs with the HECS setup tease, everybody drink! . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 41 minutes ago, Heisy said: . Triple phaser incoming. But you know as well as I do that the trof will remain buried on the West Coast and the PNA ridge attempting to mozy Eastward will fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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