Terpeast Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 At least the Euro now has the follow up wave. Before it did not. That’s something. Canadian is trying. Gfs is still alone on its snowy idea though. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 9 minutes ago, CAPE said: For that period the advertised NAO ridge position/50-50 low doesn't look suppressive to me. There are other modes of failure that are more likely, mostly stemming from our friend out west. So are you suggesting the more likely fail scenarios are either 1) NO followup wave with that energy burying itself into the -PNA or 2) cutting towards Pittsburgh and late redevelopment too far N? These are the only 2 fails I see associated with our friend out West. Just want to make sure I'm picking up on what you are thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 On the 6z GEFS about half the members are mostly or all rain, the other half have at least some snow. 4 or 5 pretty big hits. Not seeing any signal for suppressed south at this point. Still plenty of uncertainty- 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 14 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: So are you suggesting the more likely fail scenarios are either 1) NO followup wave with that energy burying itself into the -PNA or 2) cutting towards Pittsburgh and late redevelopment too far N? These are the only 2 fails I see associated with our friend out West. Just want to make sure I'm picking up on what you are thinking. See my previous post on the 0z EPS vs GEFS. If you look at the MSLP anomaly on the 0z EPS the most prominent low is north of the Great lakes on March 4th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Tell us we can't know yet without actually telling us we can't know yet. But in this winter based on base state, if you know, you know. First rule of the Don't Know Club: Don't say you can't know yet! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 @CAPEnext Saturday 1 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 1 minute ago, Solution Man said: @CAPEnext Saturday lol that would be nice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 On the 6z GEFS about half the members are mostly or all rain, the other half have at least some snow. 4 or 5 pretty big hits. Not seeing any signal for suppressed south at this point. Still plenty of uncertainty-Was that a step back?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 See how the trough is positively tilted with leaving the main energy in Texas? That needs to happen. If the trough progresses without a lead edge shortwave dampening the flow there won’t be sufficient cold air and you’ll just have a basic cutter cold front. I like how the euro trended towards doing this. Still, won’t feel confident at all based on our history this winter until we get major models on board under day 5. . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 2 minutes ago, Ji said: Was that a step back? . Depends on criteria I guess. Still has the trailing wave idea and that's what gives us snow in the GFS scenario. There is a signal for stronger LP to our NW on the 6z run though, which aligns with the warmer/rainy members. Probably is a slight step back, but it doesn't really matter much at this point. We really need the Euro to get more onboard. We know how this goes otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 6 minutes ago, Heisy said: See how the trough is positively tilted with leaving the main energy in Texas? That needs to happen. If the trough progresses without a lead edge shortwave dampening the flow there won’t be sufficient cold air and you’ll just have a basic cutter cold front. I like how the euro trended towards doing this. Still, won’t feel confident at all based on our history this winter until we get major models on board under day 5. . With that said, also don't want that main energy lagging too far behind allowing any dampening that occurred to start the return flow well out ahead of that main energy. Timing is critical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 7 minutes ago, CAPE said: Depends on criteria I guess. Still has the trailing wave idea and that's what gives us snow in the GFS scenario. There is a signal for stronger LP to our NW on the 6z run though, which aligns with the warmer/rainy members. Probably is a slight step back, but it doesn't really matter much at this point. We really need the Euro to get more onboard. We know how this goes otherwise. If the 0z Euro was a blip in an otherwise cutterier scenario, then yeah...GFS being relatively on its own isn't cool. But if the Euro sticks with its 0z idea of the energy sliding soth, then we have two relatively different camps and we have to wait to see which one blink first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 2 hours ago, Ji said: What kind of storm are you referring too? A storm like what? We have a legit nao this time and some 5050 action . An actual wound up storm rather than an overrunning event. I guess February 2003 was kinda overrunning, but it's the only one I can think of that crushed us with a similar type setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 11 minutes ago, mattie g said: If the 0z Euro was a blip in an otherwise cutterier scenario, then yeah...GFS being relatively on its own isn't cool. But if the Euro sticks with its 0z idea of the energy sliding soth, then we have two relatively different camps and we have to wait to see which one blink first. GFS is not alone btw. CMC is not a cutter look. Really morphed last 4 runs into a followup wave thing that slides under the NAO-50/50 dipole. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 All 3 major ops are not agreeing with the means of a stronger cutter low in the GL fwiw. This is that range tho where the ops have generally done their own thing then once within 144-168 hrs have gone back towards the ens looks. Today's runs are going to be telling imho wrt seeing if we move towards one camp vs the other. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 WB 6Z Euro EPS compared to 12Z yesterday at Day 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 7 hours ago, Weather Will said: WB 0Z EURO Definitely more like GFS this run….7 am Friday This map is the most impressive one yet...this would be a total Euro cave 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 33 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: GFS is not alone btw. CMC is not a cutter look. Really morphed last 4 runs into a followup wave thing that slides under the NAO-50/50 dipole. I agree. I was going to mention the Canadian but I got a little lazy. It's not ultimately a cutter look, but the primary makes its move much farther west and makes it too far north before transferring. Big differences out west, though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 Latest MJO. Still phase 8 bound…. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: Latest MJO. Still phase 8 bound…. Even if we end up not getting any meaningful snow it's really looking like we're in for a prolonged period of miserable early spring weather. Ensembles are all in solid agreement that indices are taking the first week in March. Could be very cold right into mid April. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 20 minutes ago, HighStakes said: Even if we end up not getting any meaningful snow it's really looking like we're in for a prolonged period of miserable early spring weather. Ensembles are all in solid agreement that indices are taking the first week in March. Could be very cold right into mid April. There was never really any doubt. The rubber band always snaps back, so it was bound to happen at this point in the season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 24, 2023 Author Share Posted February 24, 2023 5 minutes ago, mattie g said: There was never really any doubt. The rubber band always snaps back, so it was bound to happen at this point in the season. Did the base state snap back also? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 4 hours ago, Ji said: What kind of storm are you referring too? A storm like what? We have a legit nao this time and some 5050 action . I think in the macro sense DT is right that often these west to east amplified waves that we need to not gain any latitude to work out...don't work out. Usually they either get squashed or cut. That's because the balance you need between suppression and amplitude is delicate. That said...they do work more often in a blocking regime AND later in the season. So given the micro here I wouldn't discount it. My biggest issue with it is simply the complexity between all the waves here and the lead time. It's a realistic progression imo, but the issue is we are talking about 3 waves in pretty close proximity that will all affect one another and at the lead time we are still talking about how likely is it that the guidance is getting those details between all 3 waves correct? Usually when we have seen guidance nail a snowstorm from this range its a much simpler situation with a split flow, a strong STJ wave being ejected into a blocking regime. That is the kind of stable setup guidance can be expected to have a reasonable representation of even at day 7. But whenever we need to resolve multiple waves and energy transfers between streams the odds its being modeled correctly outside 100 hours goes way down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 Ok guys, here we go. May the Gods be on our side and I'll get to officially drop Jaws. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 43 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Latest MJO. Still phase 8 bound…. Keep in mind phase 8 is not as good in March as earlier in the winter...Phase 1-2 are really the best phases as we head into March for cold/snow here. That's one of the factors why if it wasn't for the fact climo is deteriorating I said I would favor late March for snow. We might end up having to see where the end of our workable climo intersects the start of the best pattern coming up. None of that means we can't get lucky with something BEFORE the best pattern period actually begins. Luck is a HUGE part of all this. Always Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 So the ICON takes a really good track under us but is warm asf. Has the trail wave but look like it didn't allow the preceding front enough time/space to dampen the flow enough out ahead, ie, slower NS energy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 It's early on, but no major changes in the H5 presentation between 6z and 12z so far at 102 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 NAO taking its dear old time on the icon and doesn't force the NS wave thru far enough S nor fast enough. 50/50 is there. Alas, that's enough dissecting of this model more than a week out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: NAO taking its dear old time on the icon and doesn't force the NS wave thru far enough S nor fast enough. 50/50 is there. Alas, that's enough dissecting of this model more than a week out. Icon is alot quicker with the follow up wave. Almost 18 to 24 hours earlier which doesn't allow the boundary to slip south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 1 minute ago, Chris78 said: Icon is alot quicker with the follow up wave. Almost 18 to 24 hours earlier which doesn't allow the boundary to slip south. Yep. Kicker seems to be aiding in moving along faster too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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