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March Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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The fundamental difference between the Euro/EPS and GEFS is the former reamps the Aleutian ridge (as the NAO ridge is retrograding west) pinching off the TPV and digging a new western trough southward a bit sooner. The initial trough can't separate enough, and some of the energy within it is influenced/absorbed by the new trough.

GFS/GEFS allows the initial trough to get out in front and move eastward with little to no interaction, and there is a signal for a distinct surface low moving towards the east coast.

 1677866400-mpHDZXvo9Fk.png

 

1677866400-Y4YMkqjEZeg.png

If we are gonna get screwed (again), ofc it will be the horrid pacific that will do it lol.

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25 minutes ago, yoda said:

I'd take 06z GFS at hr 192 please all day every day

Right?!? Why can't this be under 72 hrs ffs. Loving the general look tho. Classic late season way to score with a followup wave type deal. Gotta hope the NAO doesn't try and squash it. Need the SER base state thing to not disappear completely when we could actually use a little push back. Feeling this threat. 

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The fundamental difference between the Euro/EPS and GEFS is the former reamps the Aleutian ridge (as the NAO ridge is retrograding west) pinching off the TPV and digging a new western trough southward a bit sooner. The initial trough can't separate enough, and some of the energy within it is influenced/absorbed by the new trough.
GFS/GEFS allows the initial trough to get out in front and move eastward with little to no interaction, and there is a signal for a distinct surface low moving towards the east coast.
 1677866400-mpHDZXvo9Fk.png
 
1677866400-Y4YMkqjEZeg.png
If we are gonna get screwed (again), ofc it will be the horrid pacific that will do it lol.

We can’t just know yet right?


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9 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Right?!? Why can't this be under 72 hrs ffs. Loving the general look tho. Classic late season way to score with a followup wave type deal. Gotta hope the NAO doesn't try and squash it. Need the SER base state thing to not disappear completely when we could actually use a little push back. Feeling this threat. 

The NAO squashing it won't be the problem. 

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DT seems to be wrong a lot but I actually think he is probably right here. I just don't like the trajectory of this storm, especially for those kinds of totals. When have we ever had a storm like this dump on us? This kind of storm always seems to get suppressed and slide to our south or ends up too far north and it rains.

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5 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

DT seems to be wrong a lot but I actually think he is probably right here. I just don't like the trajectory of this storm, especially for those kinds of totals. When have we ever had a storm like this dump on us? This kind of storm always seems to get suppressed and slide to our south or ends up too far north and it rains.

Not sure. Looks like it is morphing into a followuo wave along a late season arctic boundary situation. These overunning events can overperform and really dump. Not seeing this as a bomb low developing tbh attm.

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DT seems to be wrong a lot but I actually think he is probably right here. I just don't like the trajectory of this storm, especially for those kinds of totals. When have we ever had a storm like this dump on us? This kind of storm always seems to get suppressed and slide to our south or ends up too far north and it rains.

What kind of storm are you referring too? A storm like what? We have a legit nao this time and some 5050 action

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1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Isn't it the flow under the pressing NAO that is trying to do a squeeze play between the dipole and the SER tho? In any event, from your keyboard to nature's ears. You're saying suppression won't be the issue, noted.

For that period the advertised NAO ridge position/50-50 low doesn't look suppressive to me. There are other modes of failure that are more likely, mostly stemming from our friend out west.

 

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