Weather Will Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 WB 0Z EURO 7pm Friday compared to yesterday at 0Z….Slides to the south this run….cave to the GFS but too far south…still in the game; on to 12Z-encouraging run! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 ECM is a medieval torture model 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 lol id like if I didnt see that coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 DT says no snow before the 7th. This March 4th storm is bull$hit! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 WB 0Z EURO Definitely more like GFS this run….7 am FridayTrash model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 2 hours ago, Siberian-Snowcover-Myth said: DT says no snow before the 7th. This March 4th storm is bull$hit! I think he is still waiting for his December snow to show up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 I'd take 06z GFS at hr 192 please all day every day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 i found this winter the Euro has budged more than the GFS than the other way around...so hopefully the Euro will come around to the GFS solid idea of a blizzard for our areaHi 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 I'd take 06z GFS and call it a winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 I'd take 06z GFS at hr 192 please all day every dayI’ll take what the gfs is smoking and call it a winter. Dr no went from cutter to suppressed in one run and still trolls us with no snow…f that model 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 Hello there 5 3 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 The fundamental difference between the Euro/EPS and GEFS is the former reamps the Aleutian ridge (as the NAO ridge is retrograding west) pinching off the TPV and digging a new western trough southward a bit sooner. The initial trough can't separate enough, and some of the energy within it is influenced/absorbed by the new trough. GFS/GEFS allows the initial trough to get out in front and move eastward with little to no interaction, and there is a signal for a distinct surface low moving towards the east coast. If we are gonna get screwed (again), ofc it will be the horrid pacific that will do it lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 25 minutes ago, yoda said: I'd take 06z GFS at hr 192 please all day every day Right?!? Why can't this be under 72 hrs ffs. Loving the general look tho. Classic late season way to score with a followup wave type deal. Gotta hope the NAO doesn't try and squash it. Need the SER base state thing to not disappear completely when we could actually use a little push back. Feeling this threat. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 The fundamental difference between the Euro/EPS and GEFS is the former reamps the Aleutian ridge (as the NAO ridge is retrograding west) pinching off the TPV and digging a new western trough southward a bit sooner. The initial trough can't separate enough, and some of the energy within it is influenced/absorbed by the new trough. GFS/GEFS allows the initial trough to get out in front and move eastward with little to no interaction, and there is a signal for a distinct surface low moving towards the east coast. If we are gonna get screwed (again), ofc it will be the horrid pacific that will do it lol.We can’t just know yet right?. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 1 minute ago, Ji said: We can’t just know yet right? . Correct. We can only have a feeling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 9 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Right?!? Why can't this be under 72 hrs ffs. Loving the general look tho. Classic late season way to score with a followup wave type deal. Gotta hope the NAO doesn't try and squash it. Need the SER base state thing to not disappear completely when we could actually use a little push back. Feeling this threat. The NAO squashing it won't be the problem. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 1 minute ago, CAPE said: Correct. We can only have a feeling. Tell us we can't know yet without actually telling us we can't know yet. But in this winter based on base state, if you know, you know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 DT seems to be wrong a lot but I actually think he is probably right here. I just don't like the trajectory of this storm, especially for those kinds of totals. When have we ever had a storm like this dump on us? This kind of storm always seems to get suppressed and slide to our south or ends up too far north and it rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: The NAO squashing it won't be the problem. Isn't it the flow under the pressing NAO that is trying to do a squeeze play between the dipole and the SER tho? In any event, from your keyboard to nature's ears. You're saying suppression won't be the issue, noted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 5 minutes ago, osfan24 said: DT seems to be wrong a lot but I actually think he is probably right here. I just don't like the trajectory of this storm, especially for those kinds of totals. When have we ever had a storm like this dump on us? This kind of storm always seems to get suppressed and slide to our south or ends up too far north and it rains. Not sure. Looks like it is morphing into a followuo wave along a late season arctic boundary situation. These overunning events can overperform and really dump. Not seeing this as a bomb low developing tbh attm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 DT seems to be wrong a lot but I actually think he is probably right here. I just don't like the trajectory of this storm, especially for those kinds of totals. When have we ever had a storm like this dump on us? This kind of storm always seems to get suppressed and slide to our south or ends up too far north and it rains.What kind of storm are you referring too? A storm like what? We have a legit nao this time and some 5050 action . 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 Happy Friday! Enjoying this digital blizzard. I’ll be Jebwalking in it momentarily. Anyone want to meet up at the sledding hill for some digital coffee stout? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 26 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Feeling this threat. Wait til you meet this other poster here going by Ralph Wiggum from yesterday. You all have a lot to chat about. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 7 minutes ago, Scraff said: Happy Friday! Enjoying this digital blizzard. I’ll be Jebwalking in it momentarily. Anyone want to meet up at the sledding hill for some digital coffee stout? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 1 hour ago, yoda said: Hello there that has to be a lot of sleet too. unless the rates are insane which that one panel had. still not a fan of the thermal profile. can't buy a 540 blue line. That said...I'm in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 14 minutes ago, BristowWx said: that has to be a lot of sleet too. unless the rates are insane which that one panel had. still not a fan of the thermal profile. can't buy a 540 blue line. That said...I'm in PW soundings showed mostly snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 The 00z EPS was a step in the right duration to my eyes but hardly looks like that great 06z GEFS that was just posted. At least the Canadian ens are right in the middle and looks fairly decent - 2-3” area-wide. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hstorm Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 4 hours ago, Siberian-Snowcover-Myth said: DT says no snow before the 7th. This March 4th storm is bull$hit! This means we can lock in the March 4 storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Isn't it the flow under the pressing NAO that is trying to do a squeeze play between the dipole and the SER tho? In any event, from your keyboard to nature's ears. You're saying suppression won't be the issue, noted. For that period the advertised NAO ridge position/50-50 low doesn't look suppressive to me. There are other modes of failure that are more likely, mostly stemming from our friend out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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