BristowWx Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 It’s not warm after that’s for sure. The 540 line is waking up. Blossom watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 In the God awful pattern we've been in this is probably the best way to get some frozen with a follow up wave on the heals of a front runner that drags the boundary through. Of course it will take some timing and maybe some luck. I'd say our WD index is very high at the moment. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 23, 2023 Author Share Posted February 23, 2023 20 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Was just about to say the same thing. One of these models is going to be VERY wrong and my money would be on the GFS being that model. Is it even possible for a model to be “very” wrong 9 days out? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 6 minutes ago, Chris78 said: In the God awful pattern we've been in this is probably the best way to get some frozen with a follow up wave on the heals of a front runner that drags the boundary through. Of course it will take some timing and maybe some luck. I'd say our WD index is very high at the moment. That is always a relatively uncomplicated way to get it done. This is different than the shitty pattern we have been mired in for 2 months though. Pretty close to textbook- even has a bit of a ridge out west. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 7 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Is it even possible for a model to be “very” wrong 9 days out? No…no it’s not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 1 minute ago, CAPE said: That is always a relatively uncomplicated way to get it done. This is different than the shitty pattern we have been mired in for 2 months though. Pretty close to textbook- even has a bit of a ridge out west. Alot of blues and reds in the right spots for a change. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 16 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Is it even possible for a model to be “very” wrong 9 days out? Yes. Relative to the final position, yup. I think you get what I'm saying. Given a choice between the two, with one ending up right...yeah.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 This looks really good. 16 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Just now, CAPE said: This looks really good. wow. kinda shocked at the look...but...GFS 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 I am not saying these waves before have no shot, but just my gut from the way this is progressing, our best chance at a big snowstorm will be around mid March. I might even say late March but by then the pattern is fighting against the clock. I think mid month is when the best pattern and still workable climo might intersect. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: wow. kinda shocked at the look...but...GFS Not hating it. we shall see. 8+ days to go? 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Not hating it. we shall see. 8+ days to go?might be the best 24hr mean of the season. Can’t hurt. 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 23, 2023 Author Share Posted February 23, 2023 There have to be some huge members in that mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: There have to be some huge members in that mean I don’t think I’m in that mean. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: There have to be some huge members in that mean You said huge members 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 There have to be some huge members in that mean 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: Couple huge but not all that many Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 3 minutes ago, BristowWx said: You said huge members You got 'd by @ravensrule already! Too much of a bat signal hahaha! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: Couple huge but not all that many Yeah not a lot of "huge" hits, but honestly not sure if anyone is really looking for a huge one at this point. There are a couple or so others that are pretty decent and a couple that have a more "southern component" to the max amount. Hell, can we just order P28 and be done with it?!?! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 5 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: You got 'd by @ravensrule already! Too much of a bat signal hahaha! Dammit to hell!! I thought I had that one 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 WB 18Z GEFS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 lol, C VA special. I’ll take that 8-10 days out over a dead hit. Because we all know where it’s trending over the next 3-5 days . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 Are the eps and gefs forecasting for different planets it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 1 minute ago, jayyy said: I’ll take that 8-10 days out over a dead hit. Because we all know where it’s trending over the next 3-5 days Given how the gfs has performed this winter, I’d prefer a Cuba hit at this range. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 Given how the gfs has performed this winter, I’d prefer a Cuba hit at this range.I’ll take socialist snow. Any way we can get it done . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 “If only this thing wasn’t X (8 in this case) days out.” - the mantra of winter 2022-23I guess the silver lining is that the key players leading in are getting into position around day 6ish. If the GFS shows this solution at D5 and euro moves toward it, you can color me interested. Unfortunately, excitement won’t come until we’re inside 4ish days. I don’t trust models for shit anymore. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 WB 18Z GEFS, best run in a long time if not all winter…. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 Maybe we can end this lame winter with a bang around mid month. The pattern as advertised would be mature. We have a -AO/NAO. -EPO/WPO. Only the PNA sucks. This h5 look is pretty uniform across guidance, including the extended products. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 Just now, CAPE said: Maybe we can end this lame winter with a bang around mid month. The pattern as advertised would be mature. We have a -AO/NAO. -EPO/WPO. Only the PNA sucks. This h5 look is pretty uniform across guidance, including the extended products. Nothing says St. Paddy’s Day like the NCAA Tournament and a snowstorm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 Just now, nw baltimore wx said: Nothing says St. Paddy’s Day like the NCAA Tournament and a snowstorm. That look is pretty similar to my profile pic. Any guesses? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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