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March Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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In the God awful pattern we've been in this is probably the best way to get some frozen with a follow up wave on the heals of a front runner that drags the boundary through.

Of course it will take some timing and maybe some luck. 

I'd say our WD index is very high at the moment.

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6 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

In the God awful pattern we've been in this is probably the best way to get some frozen with a follow up wave on the heals of a front runner that drags the boundary through.

Of course it will take some timing and maybe some luck. 

I'd say our WD index is very high at the moment.

That is always a relatively uncomplicated way to get it done. This is different than the shitty pattern we have been mired in for 2 months though. Pretty close to textbook- even has a bit of a ridge out west.

1677877200-Lo5lvcq8dmo.png

 

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1 minute ago, CAPE said:

That is always a relatively uncomplicated way to get it done. This is different than the shitty pattern we have been mired in for 2 months though. Pretty close to textbook- even has a bit of a ridge out west.

1677877200-Lo5lvcq8dmo.png

 

Alot of blues and reds in the right spots for a change.

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I am not saying these waves before have no shot, but just my gut from the way this is progressing, our best chance at a big snowstorm will be around mid March.  I might even say late March but by then the pattern is fighting against the clock.  I think mid month is when the best pattern and still workable climo might intersect.  

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1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

 Couple huge but not all that many 

Yeah not a lot of "huge" hits, but honestly not sure if anyone is really looking for a huge one at this point.  There are a couple or so others that are pretty decent and a couple that have a more "southern component" to the max amount.  Hell, can we just order P28 and be done with it?!?!

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“If only this thing wasn’t X (8 in this case) days out.” - the mantra of winter 2022-23

I guess the silver lining is that the key players leading in are getting into position around day 6ish. If the GFS shows this solution at D5 and euro moves toward it, you can color me interested. Unfortunately, excitement won’t come until we’re inside 4ish days. I don’t trust models for shit anymore.


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Just now, CAPE said:

Maybe we can end this lame winter with a bang around mid month. The pattern as advertised would be mature. We have a -AO/NAO. -EPO/WPO. Only the PNA sucks.

This h5  look is pretty uniform across guidance, including the extended products.

1678557600-ZrIdyzIlqI8.png

 

Nothing says St. Paddy’s Day like the NCAA Tournament and a snowstorm.

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