mappy Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Just now, stormtracker said: It's fun. It's never too early as long as people expectations are in check and realistic lololol 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: It's fun. It's never too early as long as people expectations are in check and realistic 18z will be rockin' 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 It's almost literally the only thing that we've had to do this winter. If we waited until it was within five days, we never get a PBP. Let tracker cook. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 23 minutes ago, mappy said: I would rather have nothing. You live in the right region! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 It is beautiful outside folks, except of course for the 19 fools in this forum! Take a walk between runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 The strongest signal for frozen on the GEFS is here. Probably should start to pay a bit more attention to this, especially for those that are further NE in our region. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Still lots of spread for the March 4 deal. Looks like a trailing wave similar to the op. Lead wave goes NW and is too warm. Best signal for frozen on the mean is from sw to central VA into northern NC. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 The strongest signal for frozen on the GEFS is here. Probably should start to pay a bit more attention to this, especially for those that are further NE in our region.Yep, threw that out earlier. Some nice members in there, which is a good shift from earlier runs. Long way to go to get everyone involved but we’ve got 5 days to have that transfer happen further south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Yep, threw that out earlier. Some nice members in there, which is a good shift from earlier runs. Long way to go to get everyone involved but we’ve got 5 days to have that transfer happen further south. Started seeing it at 18z yesterday when it became very favorable for SNE. With the primary getting that far north, would need it to be weaker to have a realistic shot down here- need the coastal to get going sooner and strengthen closer to the coast. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 1 minute ago, CAPE said: Started seeing it at 18z yesterday when it became very favorable for SNE. With the primary getting that far north, would need it to be weaker to have a realistic shot down here- need the coastal to get going sooner and strengthen closer to the coast. Great analysis, thanks. My analysis following yesterday's 18z runs was to look at hotels around Boston -- pretty cheap! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 We got the general look. There is the trailing wave. 7 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 interestingly enough, there are a handful of members that jackpot the N Mid-Atlantic and leave NE with scraps. one is even suppressed down to DC looking at the 500mb from each member, it's apparent that these members have higher heights initially, leading to the S/W digging more and ending up farther S. this allows less influence from the primary SLP take these two members, for example. member 28 on the left likely has a progressive front-end thump with the greatest amounts in NNE. however, member 29 on the right has a pretty classic DCA-PHL-NYC axis that is certainly influenced by confluent flow to the N. so, I think this bears a lot of watching. we want to see the S/W amped for a farther S track. all of the members that have this kind of snowfall distribution (members 20, 21, 27, 29) have the same initially amped S/W 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 8 minutes ago, CAPE said: We got the general look. There is the trailing wave. love seeing that -NAO and 50/50 dipole. shows that it's a true block 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 23, 2023 Author Share Posted February 23, 2023 54 minutes ago, stormtracker said: It's fun. It's never too early as long as people expectations are in check and realistic So … start a thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Cutter to coastal redevelopment signal keeps popping up. We know how those go for us…. SNE looks primed for their first biggie. We definitely want to see that change over the next 3-4 days . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Just now, brooklynwx99 said: love seeing that -NAO and 50/50 dipole. shows that it's a true block Yep a true block requires both. Can see it on the op runs too. The vortices get 'stuck' and turn back westward underneath. Lows screaming through the 50-50 region mostly don't work. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 1 hour ago, diatae said: I'll count hail too. I'm not above it. I still have those giant hailstones in my freezer from the storm last summer. If it's cold enough I'll go throw them on the lawn and we can count it as snow depth. Or maybe just rent one of those commercial snowmakers that the ski slopes use. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Euro sucks ass. That's my scientific opinion. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Euro sucks ass. That's my scientific opinion. its amazing that when it shows a rain storm 10 days out---it never budges. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 8 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Euro sucks ass. That's my scientific opinion. It seemed like a bit of a step forward from 0z's 959 cutoff low north of St Louis though lol but yeah we need more than a bit of a step forward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 CMC was sort of in-between the GFS and Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 9 minutes ago, CAPE said: CMC was sort of in-between the GFS and Euro. I wonder which way the CMC will move at 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: I wonder which way the CMC will move at 0z Def toward the GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 12z GFS ensembles shows a really strong +EPO March 1-3. If it verifies this strong, we could be in the 60s again. certainly not liking the mean trough passing under the west-NAO, it will trend north imo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 On 2/21/2023 at 11:23 AM, mappy said: its not going to snow. enjoy early spring everyone 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 As you might imagine, not much of a signal for frozen on the EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Yeah but maybe we can get sleet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 7 minutes ago, CAPE said: As you might imagine, not much of a signal for frozen on the EPS. i found this winter the Euro has budged more than the GFS than the other way around...so hopefully the Euro will come around to the GFS solid idea of a blizzard for our area 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 imagine if we could do snow like we did heat. Mid 40s this morning, not lookin good. Then BAM, 12 degree rise in 45 min with a wind shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 6 minutes ago, pazzo83 said: imagine if we could do snow like we did heat. Mid 40s this morning, not lookin good. Then BAM, 12 degree rise in 45 min with a wind shift. We don't even have perfectly unfavorable conditions today.. just an Aleutian ridge. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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