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March Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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The strongest signal for frozen on the GEFS is here. Probably should start to pay a bit more attention to this, especially for those that are further NE in our region.
1677585600-jixCE2JOVX0.png

Yep, threw that out earlier. Some nice members in there, which is a good shift from earlier runs. Long way to go to get everyone involved but we’ve got 5 days to have that transfer happen further south.
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2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:


Yep, threw that out earlier. Some nice members in there, which is a good shift from earlier runs. Long way to go to get everyone involved but we’ve got 5 days to have that transfer happen further south.

Started seeing it at 18z yesterday when it became very favorable for SNE. With the primary getting that far north, would need it to be weaker to have a realistic shot down here- need the coastal to get going sooner and strengthen closer to the coast.

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1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Started seeing it at 18z yesterday when it became very favorable for SNE. With the primary getting that far north, would need it to be weaker to have a realistic shot down here- need the coastal to get going sooner and strengthen closer to the coast.

Great analysis, thanks. My analysis following yesterday's 18z runs was to look at hotels around Boston -- pretty cheap!

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interestingly enough, there are a handful of members that jackpot the N Mid-Atlantic and leave NE with scraps. one is even suppressed down to DC

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-ne-snow_total_multimember_panel-7661200.thumb.png.848c1257ac0947a996375b234eadb936.png

looking at the 500mb from each member, it's apparent that these members have higher heights initially, leading to the S/W digging more and ending up farther S. this allows less influence from the primary SLP

take these two members, for example. member 28 on the left likely has a progressive front-end thump with the greatest amounts in NNE. however, member 29 on the right has a pretty classic DCA-PHL-NYC axis that is certainly influenced by confluent flow to the N. so, I think this bears a lot of watching. we want to see the S/W amped for a farther S track. all of the members that have this kind of snowfall distribution (members 20, 21, 27, 29) have the same initially amped S/W

926131625_Screenshot2023-02-23121329.png.030d8ba6ebfe9de43597983d07eadf02.png

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1 hour ago, diatae said:

I'll count hail too. I'm not above it.

I still have those giant hailstones in my freezer from the storm last summer.  If it's cold enough I'll go throw them on the lawn and we can count it as snow depth.   Or maybe just rent one of those commercial snowmakers that the ski slopes use. 

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7 minutes ago, CAPE said:

As you might imagine, not much of a signal for frozen on the EPS.

i found this winter the Euro has budged more than the GFS than the other way around...so hopefully the Euro will come around to the GFS solid idea of a blizzard for our area

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