psuhoffman Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 2 hours ago, CAPE said: Looking ahead on the GEFS the -NAO weakens some but there is an improvement on the Pacific side with the EPO/WPO trending negative. Mean trough position shifting eastward. Colder look. Good trade-off if real imo. It's actually slightly depressing though, that there is still that much SER in the means with that look everywhere else. The PAC ridge has shifted well east into AK there...there is a ridge bridge over the top to the NAO domain, strong 50/50 signal...and yet there is still a SER in the means... yea sure we could get super picky, the pacific isnt PERFECT...but if we need perfect to squash the SER we are in big trouble in a larger scale sense. That should be plenty good enough there to obliterate the SER totally...it shouldn't be showing in the means at all IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 In the mid March period, the latest WB GEFS extended looks pretty good… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 And the latest MJO forecast still says we are heading into Phase 8. Big difference in the right direction from a week ago for a change… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Well...another day, another play by play. May God help us all. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 2 hours ago, CAPE said: Looking ahead on the GEFS the -NAO weakens some but there is an improvement on the Pacific side with the EPO/WPO trending negative. Mean trough position shifting eastward. Colder look. Good trade-off if real imo. I like the pattern. EPO shifts out of it's horrid state March 7-8, then you know that research has been done that coming out of a big -NAO block, we usually get a snowstorm rising out of it.. With a +PNA low, and northern Canada hook up of the ridge, I think it may be that trough over the west that we need to watch. or even the threats following, I have a decent N. Hemisphere signal until March 19th. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 4 minutes ago, Weather Will said: And the latest MJO forecast still says we are heading into Phase 8. Big difference in the right direction from a week ago for a change… whats the usual delay between when mjo hits a phase and when we start seeing affects? is it immediate or is their a lag? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 2 minutes ago, Ji said: whats the usual delay between when mjo hits a phase and when we start seeing affects? is it immediate or is their a lag? D-0. I tested time lags and found no definitive result vs 0-d. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Well...another day, another play by play. May God help us all. nobody cares that the euro shows temps in the 60's at the same time the GFS gives us 15 inches? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Just now, Ji said: nobody cares that the euro shows temps in the 60's at the same time the GFS gives us 15 inches? We are pretending the Euro doesn't exist. 1 1 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: We are pretending the Euro doesn't exist. Ji gives mappy shit for posting a reality based snow map but then posts this? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 9 minutes ago, stormtracker said: We are pretending the Euro doesn't exist. We are like Charlie Brown's baseball team. We lose every game but we keep showing up the next day. Hoping to avoid an 0-162 season! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 2 minutes ago, blizzardmeiser said: We are like Charlie Brown's baseball team. We lose every game but we keep showing up the next day. Hoping to avoid an 0-162 season! Winners never give up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 I love how this looks with a 50/50 low. Snowstorms in +EPO's aren't happening this Winter.. I highlight the western trough, because that is the point in rising-out-of-NAO that usually produces a snowstorm. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 23, 2023 Author Share Posted February 23, 2023 That SER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 23, 2023 Author Share Posted February 23, 2023 Looks quite a bit different pretty quickly too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Looks much warmer than 6z I'm at 177 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Yeah, it's quite ugly. Precip is further west and cold air also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 WB 6Z v 12Z next….maybe I wrote off the run too soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Oh well..there was a sliver of hope. Thats gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Hold on, hold on...looks like there's a trailing wave and cold is moving into the area at 201 1 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said: YO Lolol How did you generate this? Haha Some people say it was the CIA Speaking of which - McLean gets fringed: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Heavy precip with 0 line well south of the area, just south of Calvert county. SFC Fz is in western md Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 207, moderate to heavy frozen (snow? sleet?) across the area, especially DC south 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 At least it's 8.5 days away instead of 10 lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 WB 12Z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Just now, stormtracker said: 207, moderate to heavy frozen (snow? sleet?) across the area, especially DC south 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 210, moderate snow, sfc fz line down to Calvert County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Just now, stormtracker said: 207, moderate to heavy frozen (snow? sleet?) across the area, especially DC south Would be a fun couple hours of heavy frozen after the flip from rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Damn, cant beat WW with those maps lol. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 DCA is snow at 204 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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