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March Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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2 hours ago, CAPE said:

Looking ahead on the GEFS the -NAO weakens some but there is an improvement on the Pacific side with the EPO/WPO trending negative. Mean trough position shifting eastward. Colder look. Good trade-off if real imo.

1678514400-CxSCSZr6XEU.png

 

It's actually slightly depressing though, that there is still that much SER in the means with that look everywhere else.  The PAC ridge has shifted well east into AK there...there is a ridge bridge over the top to the NAO domain, strong 50/50 signal...and yet there is still a SER in the means...  yea sure we could get super picky, the pacific isnt PERFECT...but if we need perfect to squash the SER we are in big trouble in a larger scale sense.  That should be plenty good enough there to obliterate the SER totally...it shouldn't be showing in the means at all IMO.  

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2 hours ago, CAPE said:

Looking ahead on the GEFS the -NAO weakens some but there is an improvement on the Pacific side with the EPO/WPO trending negative. Mean trough position shifting eastward. Colder look. Good trade-off if real imo.

1678514400-CxSCSZr6XEU.png

 

I like the pattern. EPO shifts out of it's horrid state March 7-8, then you know that research has been done that coming out of a big -NAO block, we usually get a snowstorm rising out of it.. With a +PNA low, and northern Canada hook up of the ridge, I think it may be that trough over the west that we need to watch. or even the threats following, I have a decent N. Hemisphere signal until March 19th. 

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4 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

And the latest MJO forecast still says we are heading into Phase 8. Big difference in the right direction from a week ago for a change…

B30F50A3-9EA4-4A9D-A4E1-9BF12C9912DA.png

F27540FC-E699-4985-8B39-845667E0D7D8.png

E134C923-501A-4431-9C4A-C289C6F412FA.jpeg

whats the usual delay between when mjo hits a phase and when we start seeing affects? is it immediate or is their a lag?

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