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March Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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0z EPS has a pretty clear signal for primary low pressure tracking to our NW, with hints of secondary coastal development for the early March deal. Still plenty of spread.

1677909600-UKnoMfQxUD0.png

0z GEFS also indicative of spread among the members for the early March window. Appears to be at least 2 camps with some timing and track differences and/or a lead low tracking NW and then a trailing low. I don't have time to look at the individual members and probably not worth the effort anyway. Still pretty far out.

1677736800-mLaXQemSGMw.png

1677866400-jngrsYk2l54.png

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2 hours ago, CAPE said:

Looking ahead on the GEFS the -NAO weakens some but there is an improvement on the Pacific side with the EPO/WPO trending negative. Mean trough position shifting eastward. Colder look. Good trade-off if real imo.

1678514400-CxSCSZr6XEU.png

 

IF that 50/50 signal is real its a great trade off since that feature is one of the main positives of a -NAO anyways...and often it lingers beyond the collapse of the NAO which is why often some of our big storms come AFTER blocking...like Jan 96.  

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