jayyy Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 EC and GFS have the MJO in phase 8 (very strong) for the entirety of the month of march. Heads into phase 1 by April 1st or so. Composite analogs for march neutral ENSO phase 8 is tasty. No denying that. It all sounds fantastic in theory. Just hoping the ingredients come together for our latitude and we don’t watch PHL to BOS get buried all month. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 WB 0Z Euro compared to 12Z at Day 7Rexblock FTW. If that trough ejects east off the west coast, we’re in the game. With the Greenland block looking as advertised, I don’t see how that energy doesn’t boot east. It’s already starting to move east as depicted above (on the 9th) and by the 12th, it should be in the Midwest. Few kinks to iron out here, but boy… this is by far our best chance since December. Señorita niña sure picked the right time to keel over, finally allowing the MJO to both strengthen and head into phase 8. If it remains there for 3-4 weeks like the Euro is currently showing, I’d be pretty surprised if we dud. It’d truly be the ultimate kick in the ole gonads to see suppression be the reason why we fail if this pattern indeed unfolds as the euro is depicting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Rexblock FTW. If that trough ejects east off the west coast, we’re prime. With the Greenland block looking as advertised, I don’t see how that energy doesn’t boot east. This likely won’t “cut” it, actually it will probably cut lol, this winter lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Not good…WB 0Z Euro Day 8 compared to 12Z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Good night….Oz compared to 12Z. At least the EURO caved more quickly this time. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 "Retrograding NAO block meteorologically cannot go S and hookup with a SER"... Euro: hold my beer 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Meh.. that’s the OP. I call bullshit. Curious what the ensemble has to say. We’re 10+ days out. As PSU said earlier, the difference between a storm off the coast and a cutter at this range is noise. Especially on an OP run 10+ days out. If the EPS looks like shit too, I’ll begin to worry. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Bottom line is we don’t have a specific threat yet within 10 days. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 "Retrograding NAO block meteorologically cannot go S and hookup with a SER"... Euro: hold my beerThe 00z GEPS squashed the living shit out of the SER and even attempts some ridging along the WC. I really want to see the 00z EPS for the 10th onward at 500mb. Not the OP. Zero shot we were going to see the OP show and hold a snowstorm setup 10+ days out. Now.. if the EPS took a big step in the wrong direction, that’d be worrisome . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Man, this hobby is truly fucking exhausting. I’m just going to focus on my weekend trip to Albany and enjoy and hopefully when I get back, we’re all rejoicing. I definitely can’t take 10-14 days more of this back and forth shit lol I say we ban any screenshots of OP runs past 7-10 days - whether the outcome is good or bad. It’d probably save us all a ton of anxiety 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Bottom line is we don’t have a specific threat yet within 10 days.The 10th is a specific threat I’d argue. But… I do think the 12th-14th’ish onward has a higher probability of producing what we’re all craving. Late season aside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 https://www.weather.gov/media/crp/Ensembles_Anomalies_Analogs_Buchanan.pdfNice resource from NWS discussing ensembles and how they operate. (Biases, strengths, challenges, etc) Had no idea there was an ensemble that’s a GEFS / GEPS combo. Unsure how reliable it is, but new info for me nonetheless. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 00z EPS vs 12z in the same timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 The best signal for a storm with some frozen in our area on the 0z ens runs is March 11-13 period. Fairly weak signal overall, but it's there. Strongest on the GEPS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 EPS looks pretty much the same. don’t get all the hemming and hawing. i also think that any “increases” in the SE ridge are due to slightly slower timing. it still looks pretty much the same as we’ve seen it over the last few days 8 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 4 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: "Retrograding NAO block meteorologically cannot go S and hookup with a SER"... Euro: hold my beer just because a model shows something does not mean that it’s likely to occur 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 robust signal for a coastal low with lots of cold air around 8 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Oy 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 11 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: robust signal for a coastal low with lots of cold air around Maybe for once the Eastern areas might be favored. Thanks for all your updates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 OyStop it with these LR clown maps Ji. Funny to see that 31” inch total right over my parents house in Rockland county NY though just NW of NYC probably won’t turn out that way, but considering just how awful this winter has been for them, if that were to pan out, they’d be above 40” for the season including Monday’s storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 EPS looks pretty much the same. don’t get all the hemming and hawing. i also think that any “increases” in the SE ridge are due to slightly slower timing. it still looks pretty much the same as we’ve seen it over the last few daysWhew. Glad it was just due to a bit of a delay in timing. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 I think the GEFS h5 looks ok. I mean it doesn't look like the h5 from the EPS but 2m temps are below normal and I didn't see a buried blue ball over AZ/CA. I hope I am reading that right. CAPE and Brooklyn will tell me if I am not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 WB 6Z GEFS has trended in the right direction for next weekend compared to yesterday at 6Z. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Just now, Weather Will said: WB 6Z GEFS has trended in the right direction for next weekend compared to yesterday at 6Z. Thank you. I meant to include you in the people that could tell me I am a fucknut in my interpretation of the ensemble...there are plenty of others Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 15 minutes ago, BristowWx said: I think the GEFS h5 looks ok. I mean it doesn't look like the h5 from the EPS but 2m temps are below normal and I didn't see a buried blue ball over AZ/CA. I hope I am reading that right. CAPE and Brooklyn will tell me if I am not. It looks much better to me actually, esp after the 12th and onward. I would not be surprised to see a cutter on the 7-10 time frame that reinforces the 50/50 and pushes the boundary south 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 You’ll still looking for snow huh? lol. I put locks on my shit blinds at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 My no expert take is that the beginning of our window has shifted from the 9th to the 11-12th timeframe. it would be nice to see that window hold over the next few days and not slip too much further. We are running out of time… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 2, 2023 Author Share Posted March 2, 2023 20 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: You’ll still looking for snow huh? lol. I put locks on my shit blinds at this point. Thanks for the update 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 10 day snow means ending 18th. We still have a ways to go on GEFS. WB 0Z EPS, 0Z GEPS, and 6Z GEFS. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 7 day height means. If we are not tracking something by the end of next work week, our Hail Mary play is in trouble. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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