BristowWx Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 4 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z GFS and EURO at 90 about the same. Looks similar to 96 12z Euro. I guess after that is when things go awry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 4 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: That's wild. It looks like the temps briefly dropped to the upper 40s in Newport Beach which must have been just good enough. In fairness, that's how I've gotten my 3 trace events here this winter...so I guess Monkton area climate is the same as Newport Beach now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 51 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: You’re basically speculating the same thing just using technical terms lol. I don’t know but it would explain some things. I think that the seemingly ever-present NW trend of storm tracks from run to run as well as an overall cold E US bias of models much past 5 days and especially out 10+ days is probably partially related to the warm Atlantic fighting back. But if so, why do the models not get adjusted in updates to take these biases into account after all of these years? Is sparse initialization data over the Atlantic the main issue keeping the models largely clueless? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 4 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Looks similar to 96 12z Euro. I guess after that is when things go awry Hopefully it will be the GFS’s turn to cave over the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 4 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: That's wild. It looks like the temps briefly dropped to the upper 40s in Newport Beach which must have been just good enough. I need to take some time to check the stats on this west coast winter because it's the complete opposite of what we've experienced here. They really did need the precip and there was mention of snow around Vegas again today. When I see that, it's a pretty good indication of what the pattern is like in the east, at least in the short range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Hopefully it will be the GFS’s turn to cave over the next few days.It would only cave if the euro was showing rain and it was showing snow 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: there is definitely a trend here to get the vort out faster, though, regardless of whatever weird way the GFS is thinking of doing it verbatim What am I missing here? The trend has been to bury that energy in the W and pump the SER, at least based on the trends you posted. Trying to link the stout NAO and building ridge. And yes, that is a ridge please stop saying it is just higher heights between longwaves. It's essentially the same thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Looks like the western trough ticked W at 90hrs on 18z Euro, ensemble/control rolling now. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: Lol ya the GFS basically obliterates the whole hemispheric circulation to avoid moving the SER lol. Hence my speculative comment above. It’s probably just wrong. But if it’s not… That fucking SER is becoming like the Great Red Spot on Jupiter. At this rate it will just become a permanent feature. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said: it almost always goes towards the OP, though. it's a bad ensemble Except for this Friday's system where it led the way. I dunno man, as a gambler I'm kind of prone to go with the hot hand until it changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 more from the upside down 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 2 hours ago, CAPE said: Thanks shitty Pacific. What a way to wreck a perfectly good NAO block. 3 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said: I'm only half kidding, I think this pattern broke the GFS. like what the actual F is this That's a drunk mangled Nittany Lion paw bro. We are! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 15 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: What am I missing here? The trend has been to bury that energy in the W and pump the SER, at least based on the trends you posted. Trying to link the stout NAO and building ridge. And yes, that is a ridge please stop saying it is just higher heights between longwaves. It's essentially the same thing? it’s farther east and at least attempting to get it out of the west, that was the point there also, I don’t think the adage of models being “hot” or “cold” has merit. past performance is not an indication of future success, and the GFS is far away from the consensus, so I have to lean against it if some want to be pessimistic, i get it, but we just have to see things shake out 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 34 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: That's wild. It looks like the temps briefly dropped to the upper 40s in Newport Beach which must have been just good enough. It can snow in the upper 40s on the Cali coast but we excel at 33 and rain. Fuck this clime. We need a storm, STAT! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: It can snow in the upper 40s on the Cali coast but we excel at 33 and rain. Fuck this clime. We need a snowstorm, STAT! FIFY 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 EPS still looks nothing like the GEFS. all is well 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 WB 18Z EPS v. GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: EPS still looks nothing like the GEFS. all is well How are they much different at Day 6? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: How are they much different at Day 6? 18z EPS only goes out to 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 18z EPS only goes out to 144This was possibly a trend towards GFS Here is 18z control vs 12z… posting control because it generally follows the OPCan see the difference in western energy and the EPS confirms it. Not saying it’s like GFS yet but a clear step. Onto 00z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: 18z EPS only goes out to 144 Correct; 144 is Day 6. Do those maps look much different? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 This was possibly a trend towards GFS Here is 18z control vs 12z… posting control because it generally follows the OPCan see the difference in western energy and the EPS confirms it. Not saying it’s like GFS yet but a clear step. Onto 00z.Gfs wins again. No surprise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 2 minutes ago, Heisy said: This was possibly a trend towards GFS Here is 18z control vs 12z… posting control because it generally follows the OP Can see the difference in western energy and the EPS confirms it. Not saying it’s like GFS yet but a clear step. Onto 00z . Unfortunately I agree… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Unfortunately I agree… Always go with the least snowiest model. Can't go wrong 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 18 minutes ago, Heisy said: This was possibly a trend towards GFS Here is 18z control vs 12z… posting control because it generally follows the OP Can see the difference in western energy and the EPS confirms it. Not saying it’s like GFS yet but a clear step. Onto 00z . I wouldn’t say so. the way that the vort behaves is still radically different the EPS still boots the vort relatively quickly. it’s about the same as 12z in that regard, you can see it moving east. the GEFS actually backs the core of the trough NW. they’re totally different still. wouldn’t say one moved towards the other the EPS probably amped the trough up a bit more, which explains the W tick, but the way it behaves is the same as 12z due to the differing Pacific layouts 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 EPS still looks nothing like the GEFS. all is wellMaybe biggest difference is separation of the troughs? Other than that it looks identical 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 idk if some of you guys are doing like some weird reverse psychology coping mechanism stuff saying that the GFS “won” or whatever, but it makes zero sense and it’s kind of annoying i get the cynicism, but come on 5 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 5 minutes ago, Ji said: Maybe biggest difference is separation of the troughs? Other than that it looks identical that is the major feature that determines whether the vort gets booted east or not, that one difference makes all the difference. there is a piece of a ridge on the EPS where the GEFS has a trough in the E Pacific. it’s a big change they also vary in how they deal with the AK ridging. EPS and GEPS are more poleward 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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