March Medium/Long Range Discussion

[MN Transplant]

DCA's climo is just awful as you get to Mid-March.  The last time there was a 6"+ snowstorm in Mid-March or later was the '93 superstorm.  Prior to that was 1942.  

IAD has at least scored a couple of other times, in 1964 and 2014. 

All of BWI's 6"+ events appear to be 1964 or prior, with the exception of '93.

But I'm sure we'll score in the warmest year on record.

 

[brooklynwx99]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

You're probably one of my fav posters here, although you're a foreigner!  But we accept you.  You're the only Brooklyn poster welcomed and like here.....but I mean haven't we seen the perfect maps 10 days away all those other times?  This isn't at all a criticism of you...but man, 99% of us are gun shy. 

I understand. this winter has blown and I suppose I'm one of the few that can always shake it off and keep pushing as if it hasn't been a failure

with that being said, I do think it's different this time for reasons that have been stated over the last day or so. my advice to most that are gun shy is to not really hold this stuff in high regard until like Friday, but keep it in the back of your mind

I do think the -NAO and -EPO blocks are happening... it's just a matter of ejecting the trough, and we'll see what the ENS think in a few days. the EPS is the most gung-ho on this, followed by the GEPS and then the GEFS (which has trended much better since yesterday). if it leaves the W US... game on. if not, we may need to wait a bit longer. just the way it is at this range, unfortunately

[Heisy]

I'm just playing devils advocate. Seeing too much KU and HECS talk. OK, I agree, synoptically it looks pretty darn good. But I'm tempering expectations. I'll ease off the cynicism. Let this one happen.

I’m with you Ralph, the snow mean also favors cutters. There are some hits mixed in but once again….you guys are the pros and a lot smarter than me. I’m just a weenie. I was hyped after I saw yesterday’s 12z run, but something isn’t sitting right with me after todays 12z runs. I’m not all giddy like a few others





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[paxpatriot]

21 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Is this like follow the yellow brick road? Snowing in poppy fields would be a dreamy way to round out the winter....I'm all in.

Just keep in mind that the "snow" in that film was actually asbestos powder....which at this point is probably far more likely to fall from the sky than snow in this abysmal winter.

[fujiwara79]

7 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

DCA's climo is just awful as you get to Mid-March.  The last time there was a 6"+ snowstorm in Mid-March or later was the '93 superstorm.  Prior to that was 1942.  

IAD has at least scored a couple of other times, in 1964 and 2014. 

All of BWI's 6"+ events appear to be 1964 or prior, with the exception of '93.

But I'm sure we'll score in the warmest year on record.

 

I think they got 7+ inches in the St Paddy's Day storm in 2014.  Need to go by storm totals not daily totals.  DC also got dumped on in the March 1999 storm.  March and December are actually very comparable in the snow department.

[Ralph Wiggum]

12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

See that trough developing south of AK helping to shift the Aleutian ridge northeast into AK and Canada. That’s new. 
 

All winter I was unenthusiastic because guidance kept underestimating the downstream impacts of the same pacific forcing. That part of the equation is finally different now. 

Read through your journals. I'm sure there is something in there about the trof developing S of Alaska that somehow fucks us.

[psuhoffman]

19 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

It's because all of the optimism was used up on those other shit threats.   People have run out.  And it's no reflection on you or others who are doing long range outlooks.

I get it. I saved up my optimism since I pretty much knew we had no hope all winter until now so I was never invested at all in any of those. I don’t take it personal. 

16 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

DCA's climo is just awful as you get to Mid-March.  The last time there was a 6"+ snowstorm in Mid-March or later was the '93 superstorm.  Prior to that was 1942.  

IAD has at least scored a couple of other times, in 1964 and 2014. 

All of BWI's 6"+ events appear to be 1964 or prior, with the exception of '93.

But I'm sure we'll score in the warmest year on record.

 

This is a good point and it’s important to keep in mind what a “win” is in mid March. When I say I’m optimistic I’d still bet against us actually getting a significant storm. But I’m optimistic true pattern could produce one. That just meant maybe we have a 25% chance now v the near 0 one I felt we had all winter.  But people need to know their local climo. If we did get lucky and a big storm it probably looks like March 18 where the urban areas get 3-5” and the 6”+ is reserved for the NW higher elevations.  That’s what climo says is most likely even if we do get the storm we’re looking for. 

[WxUSAF]

30 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

DCA's climo is just awful as you get to Mid-March.  The last time there was a 6"+ snowstorm in Mid-March or later was the '93 superstorm.  Prior to that was 1942.  

IAD has at least scored a couple of other times, in 1964 and 2014. 

All of BWI's 6"+ events appear to be 1964 or prior, with the exception of '93.

But I'm sure we'll score in the warmest year on record.

 

Post March 10 or so, a lot could really depend on whether it snows during night or day. 2018 and even last years event on the 12th, it was positively ripping and we barely accumulated anything after about 10am. 

[MN Transplant]

18 minutes ago, fujiwara79 said:

I think they got 7+ inches in the St Paddy's Day storm in 2014.  Need to go by storm totals not daily totals.  DC also got dumped on in the March 1999 storm.  March and December are actually very comparable in the snow department.

Yes, add 2014 to DCA.  March 1999 was a little before the timeframe we are talking about (3/9/99).  

 

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I get it. I saved up my optimism since I pretty much knew we had no hope all winter until now so I was never invested at all in any of those. I don’t take it personal. 

This is a good point and it’s important to keep in mind what a “win” is in mid March. When I say I’m optimistic I’d still bet against us actually getting a significant storm. But I’m optimistic true pattern could produce one. That just meant maybe we have a 25% chance now v the near 0 one I felt we had all winter.  But people need to know their local climo. If we did get lucky and a big storm it probably looks like March 18 where the urban areas get 3-5” and the 6”+ is reserved for the NW higher elevations.  That’s what climo says is most likely even if we do get the storm we’re looking for. 

Precisely.  Everything is just so stacked against us by this late in the season that expectations need to be well in check.

That said, it would be so fun to have a Palm Sunday 1942 event.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

55 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

What is going on. For the last 3 months I’ve been taking abuse for being a deb because I wasn’t interested in day 10 fantasy and was saying nope sorry that’s not gonna happen. 
 

Now I’m optimistic we might have a chance and those same people are being huge debs. WTF. 

Must be a change in the BASE STATE!! 

Seriously though, the fact that you're optimistic about the possibility coming up is encouraging, as I know you're very cautious about such things.  I think a lot of people have become extremely jaded and cynical so it's difficult to not think this is just another fantasy that will go nowhere.  But given what you, @CAPE, and @brooklynwx99 have been saying the past couple or so days, pointing out that there are notable differences from the status quo of our other pattern looks that fizzled, one has to feel better about this.  It may be March, but hell, I'd take a good event to see this winter off, that's for sure.

[Interstate]

21 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Yes, add 2014 to DCA.  March 1999 was a little before the timeframe we are talking about (3/9/99).  

 

Precisely.  Everything is just so stacked against us by this late in the season that expectations need to be well in check.

That said, it would be so fun to have a Palm Sunday 1942 event.

Snow depth maps instead of snowfall maps. 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

What is going on. For the last 3 months I’ve been taking abuse for being a deb because I wasn’t interested in day 10 fantasy and was saying nope sorry that’s not gonna happen. 
 

Now I’m optimistic we might have a chance and those same people are being huge debs. WTF. 

I thought folks callin' ya a Deb was more because of what's now in the "Will it ever snow again?" thread, as opposed to what's happened just this season?

[psuhoffman]

53 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Read through your journals. I'm sure there is something in there about the trof developing S of Alaska that somehow fucks us.

Earlier in the season that would be more problematic but it’s ok there this time of year. Different wavelengths and colder SSTs. It would be a problem if that trough ends up further east into the west coast.  

[North Balti Zen]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i get all the skepticism and pessimism, but how can this not get you excited? this is a perfect synoptic progression on the EPS. crazy

 

because most of us have a T - .3. At best. 

[North Balti Zen]

1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

It's because all of the optimism was used up on those other shit threats.   People have run out.  And it's no reflection on you or others who are doing long range outlooks.

It's also because by mid-march it gets even harder for marginal temp events. 

[North Balti Zen]

1 hour ago, MN Transplant said:

DCA's climo is just awful as you get to Mid-March.  The last time there was a 6"+ snowstorm in Mid-March or later was the '93 superstorm.  Prior to that was 1942.  

IAD has at least scored a couple of other times, in 1964 and 2014. 

All of BWI's 6"+ events appear to be 1964 or prior, with the exception of '93.

But I'm sure we'll score in the warmest year on record.

 

THIS. This is why people are pessimistic. Rightfully so. 

[brooklynwx99]

1 hour ago, Heisy said:

I’m with you Ralph, the snow mean also favors cutters. There are some hits mixed in but once again….you guys are the pros and a lot smarter than me. I’m just a weenie. I was hyped after I saw yesterday’s 12z run, but something isn’t sitting right with me after todays 12z runs. I’m not all giddy like a few others





.

I wouldn't be worried about that. IMO I would be more worried about suppression than cutters given the pig of a 50/50 ULL in place 

[BristowWx]

6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I wouldn't be worried about that. IMO I would be more worried about suppression than cutters given the pig of a 50/50 ULL in place 

You won’t get too much concern from us on suppression…doesn’t seem to come up that much. 

[PrinceFrederickWx]

1 hour ago, MN Transplant said:

DCA's climo is just awful as you get to Mid-March.  The last time there was a 6"+ snowstorm in Mid-March or later was the '93 superstorm.  Prior to that was 1942.  

IAD has at least scored a couple of other times, in 1964 and 2014. 

All of BWI's 6"+ events appear to be 1964 or prior, with the exception of '93.

But I'm sure we'll score in the warmest year on record.

 

I got 7.3" on 3/21/2018 and 6" on 3/17/2014. It's not too rare down here. I still like my March 16-31 time period for us to get hit this year. 

[Its a Breeze]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i get all the skepticism and pessimism, but how can this not get you excited? this is a perfect synoptic progression on the EPS. crazy

Excited? lol, It's 10 days away. How many times have we been burned so far this season?

Extremely EXTREMELY cautiously optimistic? Maybe....

[clskinsfan]

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

NAO continues retrograding farther W and the GOM ridge is becoming more stout and moving closer to the SER position. Two ways to see this map.

Yeah. That one better hit because after that it is over regardless. 

[nj2va]

Let's keep that SER cranking all of March - keep those warm temps rolling through the month.

[psuhoffman]

29 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

THIS. This is why people are pessimistic. Rightfully so. 

No one is saying it will definitely snow. Just that it could. The odds are finally decent enough it’s worth tracking a possible threat.  That’s all.  It snowed in some portion of this sub in mid March or later 2013, 2014, 2015, 2017, 2018 and LAST YEAR lol so this isn’t an unprecedented thing.
 

The irony to me is some of the people who are dismissing this were willing to track all winter when we were in a pattern I knew had absolutely no chance. We are far more likely to get a snowstorm in spring with this pattern than at any date in the pattern we’ve been in. That’s not saying much. Maybe it’s 20 % now v 1% before but if you were willing to track then it makes no sense to give up now. 

[SnowGolfBro]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

No one is saying it will definitely snow. Just that it could. The odds are finally decent enough it’s worth tracking a possible threat.  That’s all.  It snowed in some portion of this sub in mid March or later 2013, 2014, 2015, 2017, 2018 and LAST YEAR lol so this isn’t an unprecedented thing.
 

The irony to me is some of the people who are dismissing this were willing to track all winter when we were in a pattern I knew had absolutely no chance. We are far more likely to get a snowstorm in spring with this pattern than at any date in the pattern we’ve been in. That’s not saying much. Maybe it’s 20 % now v 1% before but if you were willing to track then it makes no sense to give up now. 

In other words, Did we give up when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?  Hell No!

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Post March 10 or so, a lot could really depend on whether it snows during night or day. 2018 and even last years event on the 12th, it was positively ripping and we barely accumulated anything after about 10am. 

Your point is well taken and it’s harder to be colder in late March so what I’m about to say is kinda hypocritical but how much of that was temps v sun angle?  I have the same Sun angle here essentially and those snows accumulated here mid day. I was just several degrees colder. It is totally true that light snow with thin cloud cover wont accumulate after early March mid day mo matter how cold it is. I’ve experienced that. But if you can actually get the temp below like 30 I’ve seen heavy snow can. 

[Maestrobjwa]

6 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Let's keep that SER cranking all of March - keep those warm temps rolling through the month.

Man even if we shiver Easter morning (that'd be kinda cool actually) I'm willing to watch it's downfall out of pure spite, lol

[GATECH]

If it ain’t a triple phaser, storm of the century, 1993 redux then I ain’t interested at this point.  Anything else in March except sunny and 60s-70s is just misery.

[snowmagnet]

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

What is going on. For the last 3 months I’ve been taking abuse for being a deb because I wasn’t interested in day 10 fantasy and was saying nope sorry that’s not gonna happen. 
 

Now I’m optimistic we might have a chance and those same people are being huge debs. WTF. 

I’m very excited about your optimism!  You’ve been right all winter, unfortunately. So there is only one way to go from here! 

[DarkSharkWX]

cold enough temps with good rates will overcome march sun angle - like in march 12th last year where i got under many bands which brought good rates that was able to accumulate midday without much trouble

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, Heisy said:

I’m with you Ralph, the snow mean also favors cutters. There are some hits mixed in but once again….you guys are the pros and a lot smarter than me. I’m just a weenie. I was hyped after I saw yesterday’s 12z run, but something isn’t sitting right with me after todays 12z runs. I’m not all giddy like a few others





.

I don’t interpret those that way. That paltry snow to our north is a combo of weak NS waves along the arctic boundary and cutters from the minority cluster. The big problem on the majority is suppression during our window of opportunity 

1 hour ago, MN Transplant said:

Yes, add 2014 to DCA.  March 1999 was a little before the timeframe we are talking about (3/9/99).  

 

Precisely.  Everything is just so stacked against us by this late in the season that expectations need to be well in check.

That said, it would be so fun to have a Palm Sunday 1942 event.

That was a norlun trough that went berserk aided by the increased baroclinity that time of year in an anomalously cold airmass. I’d love to experience that kind of thing. Training stationary lines of thunder snow. 

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I thought folks callin' ya a Deb was more because of what's now in the "Will it ever snow again?" thread, as opposed to what's happened just this season?

It think it was all of it. Not only was I saying it has no chance in the next 2 weeks but my climo observations were interpreted as “and it’s never gonna snow again”. Which of course is an exaggeration but I get it.
 

Irony is my climo stuff wasn’t predictive. I was simply pointing out trends and data that have already happened. I was putting a highlighter on evidence many didn’t want to see.  I should have started every post with “don’t shoot the messenger” lol