March Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Ji]

Embarrassing performance by European lol. Sunday Night run had this low in central nc

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[CAPE]

9 minutes ago, frd said:

I wonder how the temperatures compare to the March  2018 blocking episode. HM had commented that the progression of the blocking this March compared to 2018 is very similar the only difference is the air temperatures in the source regions of North America are not as cold,however,  maybe that has changed in the last couple days. 

If the -EPO/WPO is real, that will help to inject cold into the pattern.

[WinterWxLuvr]

For me the entertainment value now is seeing just how far west the ICON and Euro can get this low. ICON almost gets it to Iowa. 5 runs ago it was in Norfolk.

[brooklynwx99]

4 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Different up top or larger SD features but the mid and low lats generally look the same...trof building on West Coast, ridge flexing near the GOM. I realize it is after this period ppl are honking on, but the progression is still 10 days+ away. I suppose the fact it's March and this pattern could work with smaller wavelengths has folks excited for at least a chance. I see the rationale. But realistically and based on track record we've been duped into believing these day 10+ epic potential pattern changes a few times this season. If we get to March 5 or so and the progression still looks favorable headed out past March 8 I cam begin to think this could be different. I hold out hope for mid month, but remain cautiously skeptical for now.

I mean, the retrogression of the -NAO to the Davis Strait occurs in a week, so that’s likely just going to happen at this point… the block in increasing in strength as well. also I don’t really see that much of a similarity to Dec, as the -PNA gets shunted due to much more favorable tropical forcing. much more of a true 50/50 dipole too

overall, the combination of the decaying, west-based -NAO, highly anomalous -EPO/-WPO, and deep, stalled 50/50 ULL makes this a better pattern than what we saw in December

you can even see the S/W eject from the W/C and get forced under the block on a 52 member mean at 10 days out! it’s an amazing signal. the GEFS and GEPS are also enthused… the GEFS made a big step to the EPS at 00z

[brooklynwx99]

also, the AK blocking is forced by the strong MJO pulse into Phases 7/8 and the -NAO is forced by the SSWE. there is much more confidence in the HL blocking occurring due to the anomalous pattern drivers… this is not a head fake 

[Heisy]

I mean, the retrogression of the -NAO to the Davis Strait occurs in a week, so that’s likely just going to happen at this point… the block in increasing in strength as well. also I don’t really see that much of a similarity to Dec, as the -PNA gets shunted due to much more favorable tropical forcing. much more of a true 50/50 dipole too
overall, the combination of the decaying, west-based -NAO, highly anomalous -EPO/-WPO, and deep, stalled 50/50 ULL makes this a better pattern than what we saw in December
you can even see the S/W eject from the W/C and get forced under the block on a 52 member mean at 10 days out! it’s an amazing signal. the GEFS and GEPS are also enthused… the GEFS made a big step to the EPS at 00z

While things don’t look bad, I was a little disappointed in seeing the OP/eps delay ejecting that western energy vs yesterdays 12z porn run.

Here is 00z vs 12z OP comparison. I know it’s an OP run 10 days out, just saying.




.

[CAPE]

16 minutes ago, Heisy said:

While things don’t look bad, I was a little disappointed in seeing the OP/eps delay ejecting that western energy vs yesterdays 12z porn run.

Here is 00z vs 12z OP comparison. I know it’s an OP run 10 days out, just saying.




.

The same general idea is there on the 0z EPS. At this range, analyzing details each model cycle is a bit futile.

[Heisy]

The same general idea is there on the 0z EPS. At this range, analyzing details each model cycle is a bit futile.

No I agree, I’ve been around the block. I’m just getting a little impatient these days


.

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, Heisy said:

No I agree, I’ve been around the block. I’m just getting a little impatient these days


.

Considering we probably have less than 3 weeks to salvage something from this pathetic winter, most here are running thin on patience.

[Chris78]

12 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Considering we probably have less than 3 weeks to salvage something from this pathetic winter, most here are running thin on patience.

Probably down to a 10 day window with maybe 2 or 3  shortwaves to score something.

Ite like being down 2 tds at the 2 minute warning with Carson Wentz at QB. 

[dallen7908]

So it's the persistent east-coast ridge versus

1) shorter wavelengths

2) after effects of sudden stratospheric warming

3) robust MJO signal heading into favorable phases

4) dying La Nina

5) coldest sea-surface temperatures of year (climatologically)

6) 50-50 low

7) forecast -NAO

8) forecast -EPO

9) March is the new February (our snowy season seems to be moving later in the year) 

10) law of averages 

Sounds like a close match

[Weather Will]

At this point happy to see that it looks like the advertised cold period is still on schedule for later next week.  I’m not paying any attention to storm tracks until after the end of week storm clears out.  Let’s see where we are with any discreet threats on March 5.  Too many false hopes this year to get too engaged with a Hail Mary  storm.

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

At this point happy to see that it looks like the advertised cold period is still on schedule for later next week.  I’m not paying any attention to storm tracks until after the end of week storm clears out.  Let’s see where we are with any discreet threats on March 5.  Too many false hopes this year to get too engaged with a Hail Mary  storm.

Not a bad approach tbh.

Also, not picking on you specifically, but I see this mistake a lot. The word you want to use here is 'discrete'.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Not a bad approach tbh.

Also, not picking on you specifically, but I see this mistake a lot. The word you want to use here is 'discrete'.

Well, to be fair, any discrete threats may well be very discreet! 

[CAPE]

7 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Well, to be fair, any discrete threats may well be very discreet! 

Yes, at this point we all need to be more discreet about any discrete threats depicted on the models.

[Solution Man]

8 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Yes, at this point we all need to be more discreet about any discrete threats depicted on the models.

I think the time period that @Stormchaserchuck1was pointing out is our opportunity . You also pointed at this period, perhaps our last and only chance. 

[Jrlg1181]

31 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Probably down to a 10 day window with maybe 2 or 3  shortwaves to score something.

Ite like being down 2 tds at the 2 minute warning with Carson Wentz at QB. 

Well using your analogy , maybe we do still have a shot at a hail mary storm... As the inept Jets pulled out a win just like that with Flacco at qb this past season albeit against a equally inept Browns team..

[SnowenOutThere]

2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this is not a head fake 

Just like how this wasn't a head fake? Always 10 days away

On 2/19/2023 at 10:21 AM, brooklynwx99 said:

[jayyy]

Yes and the pattern was supposed to be different other times of the year at 10 days out. But, it just morphed into the same damn pattern as we got closer and the models shifted. Could this be different, sure. But, time is not on our side now. 

But prior failures occurred for specific reasons, none of which should be in play this time around. I get why you’re skeptical of us getting snow. But none of the forecasted patterns featured THIS combination of teleconnections. A legit west based NAO with a TPV underneath, a 50/50, a -EPO/WPO and suppressed SER. The niña is also decaying with a phase 8 MJO. These factors should keep the reasons we previously failed at bay. It’s not like we were projected to see legit blocking and a —EPO previously and they just didn’t pan out. We were banking on timing and small windows where things were somewhat workable with a handful of shitty teleconnections still in play. We also have shorter wavelengths now, which will also help.

I get why folks are skeptical / jaded from this winter. But I don’t buy the whole we failed before so we’ll fail again mantra. We failed for very specific reasons, mainly the PAC and SER and a complete lack of blocking to attempt to overcome those factors. Perhaps we get unlucky and we don’t see snow, but this is by far our best pattern of the winter season. There’s a reason PSU shrugged off every single one of those potential windows and is optimistic for this one.

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Just like how this wasn't a head fake? Always 10 days away

Difference is that we were never in phase 8 

[WinterWxLuvr]

15 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Just like how this wasn't a head fake? Always 10 days away

This. 
 

The ensembles have been very unreliable anytime they have shown a good pattern at 10+ days. That’s the thing I was mentioning yesterday. This has been a repeating error. Might be different this time but typically once we advance about 3 days the look is completely different.

[stormtracker]

8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

This. 
 

The ensembles have been very unreliable anytime they have shown a good pattern at 10+ days. That’s the thing I was mentioning yesterday. This has been a repeating error. Might be different this time but typically once we advance about 3 days the look is completely different.

Yup.  No disrespect to any of the great posters pointing out a favorable 10 day, but even they have to understand how a lot of us have zero faith in long range models showing a great pattern.  That has happened so many times this year and the shit always falls apart.  I'm not holding my breath

[Ji]

6 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Yup.  No disrespect to any of the great posters pointing out a favorable 10 day, but even they have to understand how a lot of us have zero faith in long range models showing a great pattern.  That has happened so many times this year and the shit always falls apart.  I'm not holding my breath

ya but as its been pointed out--the good looks were always transient in the bigger sea of a bad pattern. We will actually a good pattern now. storms can still fail but it wont be because of the SE ridge and all the wrong troughs/ridges in the wrong places lol

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Yup.  No disrespect to any of the great posters pointing out a favorable 10 day, but even they have to understand how a lot of us have zero faith in long range models showing a great pattern.  That has happened so many times this year and the shit always falls apart.  I'm not holding my breath

If the guidance was advertising a torch/ shit/shut the blinds pattern we would all just move on- but we are who we are. This may or may not be different, but with Nina dying and the atmosphere shifting into Spring mode, the depicted differences in the pattern are more believable. Plus the SSWE did happen, and that often shakes up the pattern a few weeks later. All that said, my expectations are pretty low. I will keep tracking it though, because it is HAIL MARY time.

[stormtracker]

Just now, Ji said:

ya but as its been pointed out--the good looks were always transient in the bigger sea of a bad pattern. We will actually a good pattern now. storms can still fail but it wont be because of the SE ridge and all the wrong troughs/ridges in the wrong places lol

Blah.  If it can fail here, it will.   I'm absolutely disillusioned. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

It's a >500dm Aleutian block on the 6z gfs ensemble mean, 3 closed 500mb low contours on the mean. 

I've noticed that recently in snowstorms, everytime models want to put a GOA low, and sometimes it's a serious trend. I would say that, that is our window, when they show GOA low's, but the cold air might lift out/pattern less favorable in that case. With that -300dm trough under the N. Pacific ridge, I don't think it will be trending south a lot, so we might be safe for a good overrunning storm, unless a GOA low pops and it morphs into something extreme at 500mb. I think a lot can change with now that look in the Pacific, but I just wanted to make a point that the pattern trended more extreme at 6z.  I'm curious to see how it plays out. There aren't many analogs of a +500dm -PNA/>+300-NAO in March. Most -PNA's happened with +NAO going back to 1948..

[Ji]

6 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Blah.  If it can fail here, it will.   I'm absolutely disillusioned. 

we actually havent had a real heartbreak this winter. you remember those winter where we track storms for 10 days non stop....and we make it to day 2...and we get a slight shift which takes us from 4-8 to 1 inch or less....those to me are much worse than losing a threat at 5 days out. God has been merciful on us in that regard this winter

[dallen7908]

14 minutes ago, Ji said:

we actually havent had a real heartbreak this winter. you remember those winter where we track storms for 10 days non stop....and we make it to day 2...and we get a slight shift which takes us from 4-8 to 1 inch or less....those to me are much worse than losing a threat at 5 days out. God has been merciful on us in that regard this winter

So true ... I don't recall looking at the NAM all winter.  

[brooklynwx99]

1 hour ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Just like how this wasn't a head fake? Always 10 days away

there was a significant snowstorm over NNJ, S NY, and CT today, so the blocking has produced for the NE US. sorry you guys got unlucky, can't nail down specific regions that are impacted 10 days out. sucks, but it is what it is when it comes to LR forecasting

be as pessimistic as you want for whatever reason you see fit, but don't shit on people that are posting in good faith because you're annoyed about the weather. that's petty

also, that post was saying talking about how the -NAO would occur, which it has in earnest. it was a good forecast in that regard... the two patterns are very similar aside from typical near-term magnifications

the post doesn't even mention any snowfall impacts. at least quote the whole post if you're going to bump troll, dude

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Boy did this storm weaken