psuhoffman Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 29 minutes ago, CAPE said: Could be cold and dry as a promising wave gets crushed by an overwhelming 50-50 on steroids, followed by a warm up. I meant work to suppress the SER. If something gets squashed that means it worked. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: I meant work to suppress the SER. If something gets squashed that means it worked. Lol With the advertised changes on the Pacific side, cold air in place, and a textbook -NAO, there shouldn't be a SER to suppress. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 18 minutes ago, osfan24 said: It did? Must have been a very slight change. It didn't. He might be looking at a single panel comparing the 2 runs wrt the secondary low. Sensible differences are zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 10 minutes ago, CAPE said: It didn't. He might be looking at a single panel comparing the 2 runs wrt the secondary low. Sensible differences are zero. look at NE PA 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 9 minutes ago, Ji said: look at NE PA Ji the optimist lol. I suppose if every run going forward made a similar adjustment maybe Leesburg would get some front end frozen. Most likely just run to run noise though. The primary actually ends up tracking further NW this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 WB 18Z GFS, our cumulative snow the next 2 weeks…. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Such a fitting map for this abomination of a winter. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 25 minutes ago, Ji said: look at NE PA 1 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Such a fitting map for this abomination of a winter. That was a pretty bad run. It was hard to find a panel that was even below freezing. Counted maybe 6. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 11 minutes ago, BristowWx said: That was a pretty bad run. It was hard to find a panel that was even below freezing. Counted maybe 6. Disaster!! This is the post I expected from Ji. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 21 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Hahaha, the inverted negative of the Ron Paul gif!!! RuPaul might be more entertaining!! (ETA: OK, looking at that gif...gotta admit he looks kinda like a vampire! It's a bit freaky! LOL!) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 6 minutes ago, CAPE said: Disaster!! This is the post I expected from Ji. Should we just punt the mid-March possibility, sh*t on the blinds, and come back next winter?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 6 minutes ago, CAPE said: Disaster!! This is the post I expected from Ji. Maybe it’s killing the block too early like psu said…or maybe we are just running around with scissors…another month of this will put me in the grave…that said I’m in 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Who actually thinks we're gonna get a storm at this point? Life moves on, it ain't happening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 26 minutes ago, IronTy said: Who actually thinks we're gonna get a storm at this point? Life moves on, it ain't happening. It's definitely going to snow. The pattern is too wet for us to miss the window. Every 3 days we get a storm/precip or something if the jet stream is going straight w->e. We have like a 5-10 day window, maybe less(3?). I'm afraid it's probably +AO/+EPO after that. edit: both storms fizzled out compared to what they were showing a few days on models, under the fast jet-through Canada +EPO pattern (like I thought they would- that's what happens. Models always underestimate Alaska). That's going to change/flip, so I think we are building potential energy the right way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xeonon Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 It's definitely going to snow. The pattern is too wet for us to miss the window. Every 3 days we get a storm/precip or something if the jet stream is going straight w->e. We have like a 5-10 day window, maybe less(3?). I'm afraid it's probably +AO/+EPO after that. edit: both storms fizzled out compared to what they were showing a few days on models, under the fast jet-through Canada +EPO pattern (like I thought they would- that's what happens. Models always underestimate Alaska). That's going to change/flip, so I think we are building potential energy the right way. I’m 99.99999% sure it will not snow in the Mid Atlantic again this season. . 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 2 minutes ago, Xeonon said: I’m 99.99999% sure it will not snow in the Mid Atlantic again this season. . So you’re saying there’s a chance…nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xeonon Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 So you’re saying there’s a chance…niceAbout the same chance as me going back in time and marrying Marilyn Monroe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 4 hours ago, CAPE said: We're all gonna do it again. You know it. This is the one! Only because it's 10 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 2 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Less awesome than that D6 signal we had 36hrs ago but I digress… But....but this time is different. The angle of the NAO is telling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 ^ Actually, that's straight HECS setup. The ridge is so big into Alaska, that there isn't enough normal variance for us to not get snow. I've seen the High jump to just the Aleutian islands maybe 1/10 times (sometimes we are the anti-snow magnet). Biggest risk is the pattern drying up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 28, 2023 Author Share Posted February 28, 2023 This is the story of the winter. Good looks on ops and the ens at about days 10-12. I think it was 3-4 days ago and somebody, maybe @WxUSAFsaid they would take the 6z gfs and call it a winter. Could be wrong but somebody said that. Now, 3-4 days later, it’s trash wall to wall. This has happened all winter. Ops and ens are missing something around day 3 that is seriously affecting these good looks down the road. It’s not just the randomness of larger error as you progress in time. That’s to be expected. This is the same error over and over. I have no idea why. I just find it interesting. I wonder if errors are studied at the 3-4 range and I also wonder if there is a consistent type of error if it can be accounted for in the programming. Rambling post but just a curiosity. BTW, I fully expect the models to reverse course and we will get a snowstorm this weekend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: ^ Actually, that's straight HECS setup. The ridge is so big into Alaska, that normally there isn't enough variance for us to not get snow. I've seen the High jump to just the Aleutian islands maybe 1/10 times (sometimes we are the anti-snow magnet). Never thought I would be saying this but give me a ticket on the Chuck bus! I’m all in… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: This is the story of the winter. Good looks on ops and the ens at about days 10-12. I think it was 3-4 days ago and somebody, maybe @WxUSAFsaid they would take the 6z gfs and call it a winter. Could be wrong but somebody said that. Now, 3-4 days later, it’s trash wall to wall. This has happened all winter. Ops and ens are missing something around day 3 that is seriously affecting these good looks down the road. It’s not just the randomness of larger error as you progress in time. That’s to be expected. This is the same error over and over. I have no idea why. I just find it interesting. I wonder if errors are studied at the 3-4 range and I also wonder if there is a consistent type of error if it can be accounted for in the programming. Rambling post but just a curiosity. BTW, I fully expect the models to reverse course and we will get a snowstorm this weekend It’s missing the new base state at day 3. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 28, 2023 Author Share Posted February 28, 2023 26 minutes ago, nj2va said: It’s missing the new base state at day 3. Of course. Now why didn’t I think of that? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 Wow, awesome 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 courtesy of brooklywx.. ridge over Greenland to ridge over Aleutian islands.. check ^lots of 50/50 low energy around.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 I’ve noticed nobody has brought up the famous 2 words we see every year. So I’ll be the first. “SUN ANGLE”…. Lol, I say this as I start hearing the pouring rain hitting my roof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 20 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Wow, awesome I wonder if that S Central US ridge is going to try and link up with the ridging up top near the NAO region? That could be a fly in the ointment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 23 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Wow, awesome Is that DT's Pamela Anderson pattern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts