CAPE Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 On 2/27/2023 at 3:44 PM, psuhoffman said: The GEFS has the same pacific progression its just losing the blocking way faster and flipping the AO back positive. So the question you have to ask is after such a SSW that did lead to a total wind reversal and subsequent obliteration of the SPV which then coupled with the TPV leading to blocking...do we believe the slower progression there of the EPS or the quick rebound of the GEFS. ETA: FWIW the GEPS is more in the EPS camp Expand Yeah the Canadian and the CFS fwiw are more like the EPS. Maybe Judah can enlighten us on the likelihood of a quick SPV rebound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 On 2/27/2023 at 3:52 PM, stormtracker said: Can already tell this run ain't it yall. I'm sorry Expand Don't worry its just 10 days away 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 On 2/27/2023 at 3:52 PM, stormtracker said: Can already tell this run ain't it yall. I'm sorry Expand by 72 hours its game over and I don't see the magnitude of changes we need being all that realistic within those lead times anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Dumpster fire Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 On 2/27/2023 at 3:56 PM, psuhoffman said: by 72 hours its game over and I don't see the magnitude of changes we need being all that realistic within those lead times anymore. Expand Have to agree, sadly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 global rain forecast system 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 On 2/27/2023 at 3:52 PM, stormtracker said: Can already tell this run ain't it yall. I'm sorry Expand It's going to cut to Minneapolis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 On 2/27/2023 at 3:53 PM, psuhoffman said: Don't worry its just 10 days away Expand About right if the EPS has a clue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 On 2/27/2023 at 3:53 PM, psuhoffman said: Don't worry its just 10 days away Expand Realistically, the majority of the sub forum has about 3 weeks left to score. So pretty soon we can retire “it’s just 10 days away”. I am as hopeful as everyone here that we score in March. But trying to get a meaningful snow after mid March would take an uncomplicated near perfect pattern. Not our strong suit lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 On 2/27/2023 at 4:03 PM, SnowGolfBro said: But trying to get a meaningful snow after mid March would take an uncomplicated near perfect pattern. Not our strong suit lol Expand We have needed that all winter so it really wouldn't be much different than what we are used to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 On 2/27/2023 at 4:05 PM, SnowenOutThere said: We have needed that all winter so it really wouldn't be much different than what we are used to. Expand Lol, good point! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 At least the Americans appear to be back on top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 On 2/27/2023 at 3:44 PM, psuhoffman said: The GEFS has the same pacific progression its just losing the blocking way faster and flipping the AO back positive. So the question you have to ask is after such a SSW that did lead to a total wind reversal and subsequent obliteration of the SPV which then coupled with the TPV leading to blocking...do we believe the slower progression there of the EPS or the quick rebound of the GEFS. ETA: FWIW the GEPS is more in the EPS camp Expand If we wind up with something similar to what happened in the southern hemisphere winter the PV should not be able to recover quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Its a Breeze Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 On 2/27/2023 at 4:03 PM, SnowGolfBro said: Realistically, the majority of the sub forum has about 3 weeks left to score. So pretty soon we can retire “it’s just 10 days away”. I am as hopeful as everyone here that we score in March. But trying to get a meaningful snow after mid March would take an uncomplicated near perfect pattern. Not our strong suit lol Expand Realistically, we could have retired "it's just 10 days away" in December. We have NOT had any actual realistic threats so far this season, including this latest, so there's no reason to think we'll get one now. If we happened to score this March, then great, I will enjoy it for the <12hrs it sticks around. But this schloppy mess, at best, we're trying hanging our hats on right now? No thanks. I'd rather see nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Was it mentioned that we don't have any cold air? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 The bad news is we are yet again 10 days away, and climo is going to start factoring in to some degree, and increasingly so as time progresses. The good news is that the actual 10 days away thing seems far more real than any of the fake 10 days away stuff people have been constantly getting excited about this year. And if Lucy does pull the football again, at least we all know it's the last time and we can move on to spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Like Groundhog’s Day movie…. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 On 2/27/2023 at 3:56 PM, stormtracker said: Dumpster fire Expand I am in meetings - sounds like the snow is not even within a few hour drive? This sucks so hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 On 2/27/2023 at 4:25 PM, North Balti Zen said: I am in meetings - sounds like the snow is not even within a few hour drive? This sucks so hard. Expand 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 On 2/27/2023 at 4:25 PM, North Balti Zen said: I am in meetings - sounds like the snow is not even within a few hour drive? This sucks so hard. Expand Depends how fast you drive. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 On 2/27/2023 at 4:28 PM, stormtracker said: Expand The New England sub might even be toast by the time this storm arrives. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 On 2/27/2023 at 4:25 PM, North Balti Zen said: I am in meetings - sounds like the snow is not even within a few hour drive? This sucks so hard. Expand How far is Albany from you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 On 2/27/2023 at 4:31 PM, osfan24 said: How far is Albany from you? Expand That may not even be far enough north lol. Try Caribou Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Congrats west side of Chicago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 @stormtracker @psuhoffman @osfan24 sigh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 On 2/27/2023 at 2:28 PM, jayyy said: It’s encouraging the see both the EPS and GEFS annihilate the SER around the 10th. Just hope it holds. Combine that with legit blocking, and that’s how we overcome the PAC. Expand Relying on snow in mid-March when it's barely snowed more than a cartopper all season is risky business. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 On 2/27/2023 at 4:33 PM, North Balti Zen said: @stormtracker @psuhoffman @osfan24 sigh Expand This is real life. Our winter is over. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 On 2/27/2023 at 4:25 PM, Weather Will said: Like Groundhog’s Day movie…. Expand That damn oversized, pampered rat lies with impunity EVERY year... 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 On 2/27/2023 at 4:37 PM, stormtracker said: This is real life. Our winter is over. Expand I accept that. But...hell...watching snow flee hundreds of miles away making it really hard to even chase...just...man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 On 2/27/2023 at 2:29 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said: I don't know.. this looks good to me. We have a +PDO setup and strong -NAO still when this rolls east Models lost a lot of the moisture they were showing earlier for during and after the time.. yesterday was a drier day so they seem extrasensitive to current conditions. edit: it's still pretty wet. I'm getting frustrated that it's not showing an organized system because of sheering out SER. The upper latitudes with the ridge bridge look good. There's a lot of moisture everywhere still. (It does look like the window closes early in the LR). If the SE ridge is running as an independent feature, there is going to be more moisture in the pattern too. Expand That SER is showing more and more, little by little each day on these spaghetti plots....I've been specifically following that feature because that has been our nemesis all year. I'm not saying one way or the other what I think just yet....just watching from a distance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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